CAPE Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 On 8/28/2023 at 11:14 AM, Ji said: Just realized those maps are the average of the last 12 runs. Maybe give it a few days lol Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Expand It's an ensemble based system I believe. For a seasonal/super LR tool, it updates way too frequently tbh. Some people think it's an awful model because it appears to be all over the place, but that is really just noise. If it updated once weekly or monthly like the CanSIPS, the output over a series of runs would be more consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 On 8/28/2023 at 2:37 AM, nj2va said: Acorns are growing on our mature oak trees in the front of the house. Last year, the tree didn’t produce any acorns — and we had no snow. The year before that, we had lots of acorns and wound up with an 11” storm. #winteriscoming Expand Mother Nature is providing for the squirrels when the deep snow arrives!! Never fails 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Tracking snowfall in the Northern Hemisphere again....looks like a good forecasted start in the cold source regions. WB latest EURO weeklies. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 On 8/29/2023 at 8:33 PM, Weather Will said: Tracking snowfall in the Northern Hemisphere again....looks like a good forecasted start in the cold source regions. WB latest EURO weeklies. Expand Great pattern for it to begin September...cold locked by the pole while we roast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 On 8/31/2023 at 12:08 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Great pattern for it to begin September...cold locked by the pole while we roast. Expand My sleep deprived brain can't tell if this is satire or not. There's so many indices and oscillations anymore that I can't tell if we're looking at a shutout for the upcoming winter or if we actually have a shot at hitting climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 On 8/31/2023 at 2:14 PM, Eskimo Joe said: My sleep deprived brain can't tell if this is satire or not. There's so many indices and oscillations anymore that I can't tell if we're looking at a shutout for the upcoming winter or if we actually have a shot at hitting climo. Expand I think Maryland has a great shot at climo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 On 8/31/2023 at 2:20 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think Maryland has a great shot at climo. Expand From your mouth to God's ears. Not asking for a 2009-2010 repeat. Just snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 On 8/31/2023 at 2:21 PM, Eskimo Joe said: From your mouth to God's ears. Not asking for a 2009-2010 repeat. Just snow. Expand I also thought that you would do okay last season, but the ceiling is much higher for you this year than it has been in several years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 On 8/31/2023 at 2:26 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I also thought that you would do okay last season, but the ceiling is much higher for you this year than it has been in several years. Expand My ceiling is climo for NW Baltimore County (About 20 to 24 inches seasonal total). Don't want it all in one big storm, would rather have it a couple of 6" - 10" storms so I don't have to go into work. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 On 8/31/2023 at 2:31 PM, Eskimo Joe said: My ceiling is climo for NW Baltimore County (About 20 to 24 inches seasonal total). Don't want it all in one big storm, would rather have it a couple of 6" - 10" storms so I don't have to go into work. Expand Your ceiling is greater than climo this year.....most of it will probably come in one big dump. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 I also think we have a higher than normal chance for a big dump. I need to work out the exact stats/probs, but it’s probably something like: Avg climo: 5% chance of one 15”+ hit (in any given winter) This winter: 25% chance (note this still means 75% chance we don’t get a big KU hit) 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 On 8/31/2023 at 3:48 PM, Terpeast said: I also think we have a higher than normal chance for a big dump. I need to work out the exact stats/probs, but it’s probably something like: Avg climo: 5% chance of one 15”+ hit (in any given winter) This winter: 25% chance (note this still means 75% chance we don’t get a big KU hit) Expand Don't want a big KU event. I don't wait to sit in a windowless EOC watching snow fall on empty roads. I want to be at home enjoying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 you guys are going to like this 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 On 8/31/2023 at 7:12 PM, brooklynwx99 said: you guys are going to like this Expand Classic -NAO. Colder/more snow in W Europe with that look too. Still Basin wide I guess. Interested to see the monthly breakdown later. Probably meh Dec, then gets better into Jan. March might become a winter month again too. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 On 8/31/2023 at 8:12 PM, CAPE said: Classic -NAO. Colder/more snow in W Europe with that look too. Still Basin wide I guess. Interested to see the monthly breakdown later. Probably meh Dec, then gets better into Jan. March might become a winter month again too. Expand nah it's just loaded all the way through. I expect December to be on the warmer side though this is also the MSLP anomaly... the 500mb will be different but should still show a potent -NAO 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 On 8/31/2023 at 8:15 PM, brooklynwx99 said: nah it's just loaded all the way through. I expect December to be on the warmer side though this is also the MSLP anomaly... the 500mb will be different but should still show a potent -NAO Expand Yeah I just noticed that. Still implies west based blocking with an active and favorable storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 On 8/31/2023 at 8:17 PM, CAPE said: Yeah I just noticed that. Still implies west based blocking with an active and favorable storm track. Expand yup. we're getting to the point where the seasonals are going to get the general flavor of the winter correct... sure, they might be a bit off, of course, but they usually don't completely flop at this point. the CanSIPS had this for last winter at this point, and it got it right generally 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 Latest edition- winter months h5 5 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 and March 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 This is… loaded. Hope this holds for the next… 6 months 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 WB monthly CAN. Precip 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 WB monthly CAN. Temp. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted September 2, 2023 Share Posted September 2, 2023 33 and rain would still show up as a cold anomaly lol 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 2, 2023 Share Posted September 2, 2023 On 9/2/2023 at 6:20 PM, psuhoffman said: 33 and rain would still show up as a cold anomaly lol Expand That would be true even 30 years ago for the DC area. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted September 3, 2023 Author Share Posted September 3, 2023 On 9/2/2023 at 6:20 PM, psuhoffman said: 33 and rain would still show up as a cold anomaly lolWhat a buzkillSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted September 4, 2023 Share Posted September 4, 2023 Hopefully it won't be too long before we can more accurately correlate a -NAO and El Nino winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 WB Sept. EURO seasonal 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 Serious question, not trolling, because I don’t understand this… Can someone explain to me why we’re having a La Nina pattern (hot and dry, plus active hurricane season) while we’re in an El Nino? Does ENSO actually matter anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 On 9/5/2023 at 12:51 PM, PrinceFrederickWx said: Serious question, not trolling, because I don’t understand this… Can someone explain to me why we’re having a La Nina pattern (hot and dry, plus active hurricane season) while we’re in an El Nino? Does ENSO actually matter anymore? Expand Because ssts in the WPAC and mid latitudes are warming faster than the tropics, El Nino influence is muted. It would need to get stronger to exert the same influence as weaker ones did in the past. The opposite is true for La Ninas. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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