Winter El Nino Tracking Thread 2023-2024

[psuhoffman]

5 hours ago, Stormfly said:

We had fog and no snow other than piles from plowing Christmas 2009.  Could not believe we went from solid 20" on the ground to nothing by the 25th.

End of Jan storm brushed us.  But Feb certainly made up for it.  I remember it was well into March 2010 and getting my diesel four wheeler high centered on a drift back in the riding trails.  Between the tall spruces, the damaged limbs suggested 20 foot plus drifts.  That was legit snow shoe required weather, rather rare for these parts.

This happens after almost every big storm I can remember. Some might have a handful of cold days before the warm up…but invariably it warms, whether it’s the day after or 5 days, and everyone acts shocked how fast the snow melts. But fact is 20” will get obliterated FAST as soon as dews gets above 40 and that happens here regularly so it’s almost impossible for the DC area to get snowcover to last long no matter how big the storm. 

[clskinsfan]

12 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Imo- it's just a cycle

Man I hope you are right Bob. The past few years have changed everything I think about winters here. We will see I guess. 

By the way. Nice to see some action picking up here. Winter is coming.

[MN Transplant]

20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This happens after almost every big storm I can remember. Some might have a handful of cold days before the warm up…but invariably it warms, whether it’s the day after or 5 days, and everyone acts shocked how fast the snow melts. But fact is 20” will get obliterated FAST as soon as dews gets above 40 and that happens here regularly so it’s almost impossible for the DC area to get snowcover to last long no matter how big the storm. 

Periods of 5+ days with at least 6" of snow on the ground at DCA (modern era)

• 1958 (Feb 16-20, max 14")
• 1961 (Jan 27-31, Max 9"), (Feb 9-14, Max 10") - 17 of 25 days in this stretch
• 1966 (Jan 30-Feb 3, Max 16")
• 1979 (Feb 13-Feb 23, Max 22")
• 1982 (Jan 21-29, Max 10")
• 1983 (Feb 12-16, Max 6") - Highs in the 50s the last two days
• 1987 (Jan 23-Feb 2, Max 18")
• 1996 (Jan 7-17, Max 20")
• 2003 (Feb 16-22, Max 16")
• 2009 (Dec 19-25, Max 16")
• 2010 (Feb 6-20, Max 18")

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

Periods of 5+ days with at least 6" of snow on the ground at DCA (modern era)

• 1958 (Feb 16-20, max 14")
• 1961 (Jan 27-31, Max 9"), (Feb 9-14, Max 10") - 17 of 25 days in this stretch
• 1966 (Jan 30-Feb 3, Max 16")
• 1979 (Feb 13-Feb 23, Max 22")
• 1982 (Jan 21-29, Max 10")
• 1983 (Feb 12-16, Max 6") - Highs in the 50s the last two days
• 1987 (Jan 23-Feb 2, Max 18")
• 1996 (Jan 7-17, Max 20")
• 2003 (Feb 16-22, Max 16")
• 2009 (Dec 19-25, Max 16")
• 2010 (Feb 6-20, Max 18")

Yup and as incredibly rare as it is…some in here regularly complain about even some of those events on that list!!  Lol

[Ji]

This happens after almost every big storm I can remember. Some might have a handful of cold days before the warm up…but invariably it warms, whether it’s the day after or 5 days, and everyone acts shocked how fast the snow melts. But fact is 20” will get obliterated FAST as soon as dews gets above 40 and that happens here regularly so it’s almost impossible for the DC area to get snowcover to last long no matter how big the storm. 

I could care less about snow-cover 2 days after the storm.

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[psuhoffman]

11 hours ago, Ji said:

I could care less about snow-cover 2 days after the storm.

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You lose interest as soon as the back edge snows up on radar. 

[Maestrobjwa]

17 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

This happens after almost every big storm I can remember. Some might have a handful of cold days before the warm up…but invariably it warms, whether it’s the day after or 5 days, and everyone acts shocked how fast the snow melts. But fact is 20” will get obliterated FAST as soon as dews gets above 40 and that happens here regularly so it’s almost impossible for the DC area to get snowcover to last long no matter how big the storm. 

People need to stop being picky about snow cover. IF we get a big one again...folks complaining about that would be the peak of gratefulness. Like seriously? Where's the dummy-smack emoji?? I'll have it on standby...because for anybody to complain if we get a big one, at a time where the atmosphere seems to struggle for every flake, would be beyond absurd!

[Terpeast]

51 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

People need to stop being picky about snow cover. IF we get a big one again...folks complaining about that would be the peak of gratefulness. Like seriously? Where's the dummy-smack emoji?? I'll have it on standby...because for anybody to complain if we get a big one, at a time where the atmosphere seems to struggle for every flake, would be beyond absurd!

Exactly. Beggars can’t be choosers 

[CAPE]

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

You lose interest as soon as the back edge snows up on radar. 

He is more interested in digital snow. As soon as the first actual flake falls, he is bored and looking at the latest GFS run.

[Stormfly]

47 minutes ago, CAPE said:

He is more interested in digital snow. As soon as the first actual flake falls, he is bored and looking at the latest GFS run.

I would like to have a digital snowblower with a megawatt of power.  Then I can sit in my rocker by the woodstove with kitty on lap laughing hysterically at those without using shovels and walk behinds.

[stormy]

As I predicted in this thread on July 11.

If the Nino anomaly exceeds 1.00, near and west of the BR will likely experience above normal snowfall this coming cold season. If the anomaly is less than +.70 we will probably have below normal snowfall.

The  CFS ensemble mean is +1.45 which is near perfect.

The latest CPC Dyn. Avg. is 1.90 which is still good.

The CPC Stat. Avg. is +.95 which is marginal.

The ECMWF gives 2" - 4" above normal precip. Dec - Feb.

Latest thoughts give western areas an 80% probability of above normal snowfall.

Immediate D.C. region will hinge on amount of blocking.

That is my 23-24 Winter Prediction..........................

[CAPE]

My prediction is it will snow this winter, as usual. I will go out on a limb though and predict at least 200% of last winter's total for all 3 airports.

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

My prediction is it will snow this winter, as usual. I will go out on a limb though and predict at least 200% of last winter's total for all 3 airports.

Imagine if we get less snow than last winter.

[CAPE]

15 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Imagine if we get less snow than last winter.

Less than a half inch is essentially nothing. Sure, that's possible. At least we are guaranteed to have a few heavy frosts. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Man, what a La Nina-pattern on LR models right now. Mild September. 

[Terpeast]

52 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Man, what a La Nina-pattern on LR models right now. Mild September. 

[Eskimo Joe]

56 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Man, what a La Nina-pattern on LR models right now. Mild September. 

Bro you change your analysis almost daily. First it's and El Nino now the PNA flipped so much it's La Nina.

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Bro you change your analysis almost daily. First it's and El Nino now the PNA flipped so much it's La Nina.

I like reading his analyses (as long as I can understand them). 

It just shows that nobody really knows what’s going to happen next. 

If we’re going to get a nina pattern this year, better for it to happen now or in the fall than in mid winter. Let’s get it over with. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

14 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Bro you change your analysis almost daily. First it's and El Nino now the PNA flipped so much it's La Nina.

Well, my ENSO subsurface index is barely positive so you could get some variation in the PNA. This -PNA on the LR models is the most extreme event since March, I'm just pointing that out.. We have obviously had a cooler summer with +pna's until now.  These surface events, like the High pressure I'm pointing out, impact the PDO into the Fall (Sept-Nov PDO has a pretty high correlation to the Winter). Weather is always changing, I'm just playing it as I see it. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

14 hours ago, Terpeast said:

If we’re going to get a nina pattern this year, better for it to happen now or in the fall than in mid winter. Let’s get it over with. 

I would like to see us in a drier pattern in the Fall, because we are in a overall soup'd up precip pattern right now (carrying over from last Winter), that is going to hit some time or another imo...

[pazzo83]

16 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Man, what a La Nina-pattern on LR models right now. Mild September. 

lol - right on time.  No extreme heat, but just endless warmth around here.

[Eskimo Joe]

Inject this into my veins.

 

 

[stormy]

24 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Inject this into my veins.

 

 

Big Joe and especially the CFSv2 never misses!!!!!  Start waxing those skies!

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, stormy said:

Big Joe and especially the CFSv2 never misses!!!!!  Start waxing those skies!

 If we see this in late October then it's legit. 

[CAPE]

That run looks a little different on TT. The anomalies on the WB maps sure look super impressive(and exaggerated) with all those pretty colors lol. Either way, the general idea at h5 is there- about all that can be gleaned from these models at this juncture.

[Cobalt]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

That run looks a little different on TT. The anomalies on the WB maps sure look super impressive(and exaggerated) with all those pretty colors lol. Either way, the general idea at h5 is there- about all that can be gleaned from these models at this juncture.

That's because JB posted the control run, the operational CFSv2 currently only runs through November. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

That's because JB posted the control run, the operational CFSv2 currently only runs through November. 

I see that now. Shocker.

Here is the actual 0z run for JFM from TT.

[Terpeast]

On 8/25/2023 at 9:01 PM, MN Transplant said:

Periods of 5+ days with at least 6" of snow on the ground at DCA (modern era)

• 1958 (Feb 16-20, max 14")
• 1961 (Jan 27-31, Max 9"), (Feb 9-14, Max 10") - 17 of 25 days in this stretch
• 1966 (Jan 30-Feb 3, Max 16")
• 1979 (Feb 13-Feb 23, Max 22")
• 1982 (Jan 21-29, Max 10")
• 1983 (Feb 12-16, Max 6") - Highs in the 50s the last two days
• 1987 (Jan 23-Feb 2, Max 18")
• 1996 (Jan 7-17, Max 20")
• 2003 (Feb 16-22, Max 16")
• 2009 (Dec 19-25, Max 16")
• 2010 (Feb 6-20, Max 18")

Here are the stats for IAD (only goes back to 1962, so '58 and 61' would not be on this list):

• 1962 (Dec 26 - Jan 9, max 8")
• 1966 (Jan 27 - Feb 4, max 14")
• 1967 (Feb 7 - 11, max 10")
• 1969 (Dec 26 - 30, max 13")
• 1971 (Jan 1 - 5, max 15")
• 1978 (Jan 20 - 25, max 9")
• 1979 (Feb 13 - 23, max 22")
• 1982 (Jan 21 - 30, max 9")
• 1983 (Feb 11 - 18, max 22")
• 1984 (Jan 20 - 24, max 8")
• 1987 (Jan 23 - Feb 4, max 19")
• 1996 (Jan 7 - 18, max 24")
• 2003 (Feb 16 - 22, max 18")
• 2009 (Dec 19 - 25, max 18")
• 2010 (Feb 6 - 20, max 26")
• 2014 (Feb 13 - 18, max 8")
• 2016 (Jan 23 - Feb 2, max 28")

Notice that even tho we have longer gaps in these occurrences since the 80s, the max #s get gaudier. 

[nj2va]

Acorns are growing on our mature oak trees in the front of the house.  Last year, the tree didn’t produce any acorns — and we had no snow.  The year before that, we had lots of acorns and wound up with an 11” storm.  #winteriscoming 

[Ji]

I see that now. Shocker.
Here is the actual 0z run for JFM from TT.

Just realized those maps are the average of the last 12 runs. Maybe give it a few days lol

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