40/70 Benchmark Posted August 12, 2023 Share Posted August 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/08/preliminary-analysis-of-extratropical.html?m=1 6 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 12, 2023 Share Posted August 12, 2023 I don't think anyone here could handle another blowtorch winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted August 13, 2023 Share Posted August 13, 2023 On 8/12/2023 at 9:37 AM, Eskimo Joe said: I don't think anyone here could handle another blowtorch winter. It’s hard to imagine when it’s an inferno outside right now that winter will arrive and not that far off actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 14, 2023 Share Posted August 14, 2023 We are getting so much precipitation. I would love for this pattern to last into the Winter... 2018, 2021 and I think 2022 were false alarms (summer/fall pattern), but we were heavy -PNA then, which we don't have now. 4th favorable summer season start but we have an El Nino now, so it's looking good for now. central-ENSO-subsurface is what I look for, and that is starting to warm again. today and yesterday west and central subsurface have gone Weak-El Nino again, which favors N. Pacific Low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 19, 2023 Share Posted August 19, 2023 WB (JB) first look winter forecast is for above normal snowfall and below normal temps. Mid-January onward forecasted to be the best winter period. Forecast contingent on Modoki El Nino look. August EURO and Canadian long range forecasts support this evolution. November JMA also appears to be evolving this way. Like winter, Commanders always look good in August too. Below is WB November JMA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 19, 2023 Share Posted August 19, 2023 lol Let's apparently root for a -2.5 La Nina, because Super El Nino's are so bad. I think in time the analog maps are more linear. Rooting for snow, I would always take a stronger, stronger El Nino.. A lot of Mets kind of make stuff up lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 19, 2023 Share Posted August 19, 2023 33 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB (JB) first look winter forecast is for above normal snowfall and below normal temps. Mid-January onward forecasted to be the best winter period. Forecast contingent on Modoki El Nino look. August EURO and Canadian long range forecasts support this evolution. November JMA also appears to be evolving this way. Like winter, Commanders always look good in August too. Below is WB November JMA. Umm don't forget about the Ravens too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 19, 2023 Share Posted August 19, 2023 Permanent JB forecast is BN temps and AN snowfall. Darn underwater volcanoes keep screwing it up though! 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted August 19, 2023 Share Posted August 19, 2023 5 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Permanent JB forecast is BN temps and AN snowfall. Darn underwater volcanoes keep screwing it up though! His verification might be much lower but I bet his bank account is much higher! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 19, 2023 Share Posted August 19, 2023 I went back and looked at JB's 2022 prelim. Winter. He had normal temps and above normal snowfall for mid Atlantic. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 On 8/19/2023 at 4:05 AM, Weather Will said: I went back and looked at JB's 2022 prelim. Winter. He had normal temps and above normal snowfall for mid Atlantic. I can't remember the last time we was ever right on a winter call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 On 8/19/2023 at 4:05 AM, Weather Will said: I went back and looked at JB's 2022 prelim. Winter. He had normal temps and above normal snowfall for mid Atlantic. Me still waiting for my snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 4 hours ago, Rtd208 said: Me still waiting for my snow. Every year with him. 2017-2018 he was all about 10-15" storms for Baltimore while we were 33 and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 59 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Every year with him. 2017-2018 he was all about 10-15" storms for Baltimore while we were 33 and rain. Someone who is always biased in favor of snow is just as bad as someone who is always biased against snow regardless if the pattern is hostile or favorable. There are both personalities out there and on this forum. As much as we dont like to hear it, it's harder to get snow then it is not to get snow in the mid-atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: Every year with him. 2017-2018 he was all about 10-15" storms for Baltimore while we were 33 and rain. The best was that year he used the snowfall at IAD to verify his forecast for DCA. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: The best was that year he used the snowfall at IAD to verify his forecast for DCA. Doesn't he ever get tired of doing this year after year? Smh But I guess that's his advertising I suppose... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: Doesn't he ever get tired of doing this year after year? Smh But I guess that's his advertising I suppose... He will get tired of it when people stop paying for it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: He will get tired of it when people stop paying for it. And people pay for it because they keep believing it? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 Really nice +PNA coming up, with ENSO subsurface warming. If we can stay very warm below Nino 3.4, the Winter should be full of +PNA troughs. If the ENSO subsurface goes toward neutral/negative, we hit something less +PNA-like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 The nino is a little more east based looking than I would prefer right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 Nino 4 is +1.1, Nino 3.4 is +1.3.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The nino is a little more east based looking than I would prefer right now... from what I’ve seen, the idea of a modoki seems basically dead. Basin-wide still seems possible or plausible and HM has a short thread on Twitter this morning suggesting that warm anomalies should be expanding westward soon. At least that’s what I think he’s saying… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: from what I’ve seen, the idea of a modoki seems basically dead. Basin-wide still seems possible or plausible and HM has a short thread on Twitter this morning suggesting that warm anomalies should be expanding westward soon. At least that’s what I think he’s saying… We're playing with fire IMO. Both in a good and bad way. If we can get a basin wide that is better than east based. It's a sliding scale of course and other factors will come into play...but the results of basin wide events are on the whole better than purely east based. Typically basin wide events have had variance with some very warm periods but also some periods favorable for snow. I think DC underperformed a bit in 2016. There were several other opportunities for a big snow in January, February and March that winter but only the one worked out. It was THE ONE...but still it could have had more than one hit with some luck. But the warm periods were also crazy torches. However, if we get a strong central based nino I do worry given the current extremely warm background base state... if the warmth just overwhelms everything. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 The biggest problem is...with as bad as things have been lately, and the hope the nino has given, if this ends up being a dud its going to get really really really ugly in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The nino is a little more east based looking than I would prefer right now... the forcing likely has a western lean to it given the pull of the WPAC warm pool. the MEI is also a good bit lower than the ONI, suggesting that some of the punch is taken out of it due to the WPAC. modeling seems to be suggesting both of these outcomes, which is encouraging 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 This Aleutian low is from El Nino. https://ibb.co/0BJfyXS How would you guys like to see that Pac pattern in the Winter? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 11 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: This Aleutian low is from El Nino. https://ibb.co/0BJfyXS How would you guys like to see that Pac pattern in the Winter? But if it get's displaced too far east it simply floods N Amer with pac puke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 That has happened in the past, but usually a GOA low, or low pressure where the NPH (North Pacific High) is, correlates to a downstream trough over the east coast. 97-98 and 72-73 both had subsurface negative anomalies, and I can prove that "bad El Nino's" were just -PNA patterns, because of La Nina-like subsurfaces.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: That has happened in the past, but usually a GOA low, or where the NPH (North Pacific High) is, correlates to a downstream trough over the east coast. 97-98 and 72-73 both had subsurface negative anomalies, and I can prove that "bad El Nino's" were just -PNA patterns, because of La Nina-like subsurfaces.. Hope you're right Chuck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Hope you're right Chuck. I think it's hopeful that our trough/ridges lately (Winter) are connected to ENSO. We don't want to see the El Nino weaken, especially in the subsurface.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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