Terpeast Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 47 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: hi. so the CanSIPS now has a super Nino hovering just at 2C, but it's actually a good thing. the forcing is still over the dateline and is stronger, so the blocking and overall +PNA/-NAO pattern is amplified. it's pretty sick looking years like 1972 and 1991 are still in the cards, but this is very encouraging now that we're into August. that WPAC warm pool might be a big help. could give us Modoki-like forcing with a basin-wide event Nice look. Worth noting 72-73 had that big snowstorm in the south (GA/SC/E NC) and near normal DJF temps. So I wouldn’t kick that analog out of bed. The MA was just unlucky that year. 1991-92 might have gotten ruined by pinatubo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 WB August 1 CANSIPs: blizzards along the SE coast and dry, below zero windchills in the NW suburbs of DC. I love the look this far out. SE ridge will not go down without a fight and this precip. Band bullseye will be further NW. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 17 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: hi. so the CanSIPS now has a super Nino hovering just at 2C, but it's actually a good thing. the forcing is still over the dateline and is stronger, so the blocking and overall +PNA/-NAO pattern is amplified. it's pretty sick looking years like 1972 and 1991 are still in the cards, but this is very encouraging now that we're into August. that WPAC warm pool might be a big help. could give us Modoki-like forcing with a basin-wide event We’ve never had a super Nino with the forcing centered west. We’ve had east and basin wide. It’s been theorized a west based super Nino would be very good. Maybe we will see. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We’ve never had a super Nino with the forcing centered west. We’ve had east and basin wide. It’s been theorized a west based super Nino would be very good. Maybe we will see. yeah that kind of forcing is unprecedented with a Nino that strong. tough to say what'll happen this winter but I like what I'm seeing the forcing is really all that matters... in previous super Ninos, the forcing is much closer to 150W. I'm excluding 97-98 since it was SO east based. also including 1991-92 since it was basin-wide and peaked at 1.7C. 1991-92 is the best analog out of all years in the first composite. one of the best of all for this winter, IMO the CanSIPS (and last month's C3S, which is every seasonal in an ensemble) has it much closer to the dateline than those winters. the new CanSIPS is even west of those years! it's much more comparable to a composite of 09-10, 02-03, 86-87, and 57-58. weenie years, but still. those years are all viable analogs with forcing that looks like this 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 I'm pretty excited, for the time being, the -PNA trend-persistency has broken. Without constant -PNA, with the NAO in the state it's in: weak as a main indicator and oppositely correlating the Pacific, should give us plenty of storm chances. I'm also loving the El Nino/-QBO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 This would work 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 WB EURO seasonal 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 @Weather Will are there monthly charts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 20 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: @Weather Will are there monthly charts? WB Euro Monthly 500 MB and Precip. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 Thanks! Looks classic Nino. Probably chilly November, period of blowtorch in December, wintry January, and a KU in February. 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted August 6, 2023 Share Posted August 6, 2023 West based super niño or bust!!!! In all seriousness… if we’re seeing this same look on models as far as the strength / positioning of the Niño is concerned come late September and beyond… perhaps this winter will make up for the disastrous past few we’ve endured. REALLY like seeing the -PNA regime finally broken down. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 On 8/1/2023 at 2:44 PM, brooklynwx99 said: yeah that kind of forcing is unprecedented with a Nino that strong. tough to say what'll happen this winter but I like what I'm seeing the forcing is really all that matters... in previous super Ninos, the forcing is much closer to 150W. I'm excluding 97-98 since it was SO east based. also including 1991-92 since it was basin-wide and peaked at 1.7C. 1991-92 is the best analog out of all years in the first composite. one of the best of all for this winter, IMO the CanSIPS (and last month's C3S, which is every seasonal in an ensemble) has it much closer to the dateline than those winters. the new CanSIPS is even west of those years! it's much more comparable to a composite of 09-10, 02-03, 86-87, and 57-58. weenie years, but still. those years are all viable analogs with forcing that looks like this Meaning the winter MJO would be firing in regions 7, 8, and 1? Maybe less rotation into the warm phases? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 Quote July 2023 was the 11th hottest July on record in the United States. Maine, Florida, Arizona, and New Mexico all experienced their hottest July on record, with an additional 8 states seeing a top five warmest month. Only 5 states - all in the upper midwest - were significantly below the average. https://ibb.co/MRC39bT Quote Arizona and New Mexico demolished their records for hottest month by more than 1.5°. That's enormous on a statewide basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 Great thread. Worth a read. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted August 10, 2023 Share Posted August 10, 2023 Webb really banging the drum for an east based nino and a warm wet winter in the east FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 10, 2023 Share Posted August 10, 2023 2 hours ago, aldie 22 said: Webb really banging the drum for an east based nino and a warm wet winter in the east FWIW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted August 10, 2023 Share Posted August 10, 2023 eff that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 10, 2023 Share Posted August 10, 2023 5 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: eff that. You know it's going to happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted August 10, 2023 Share Posted August 10, 2023 34 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: i’m not even sure what he’s getting on about here… the Nino becomes basin wide on the C3S and forcing remains near the dateline. this would work well once into Jan and Feb. weird tweet 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted August 10, 2023 Share Posted August 10, 2023 that does NOT look like a classic EB Nino. no idea what he’s talking about 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted August 10, 2023 Share Posted August 10, 2023 12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: that does NOT look like a classic EB Nino. no idea what he’s talking about Models seem to be doubling down on dateline forcing and active STJ. If it were April, I’d be dismissive. But now that it’s August, it’s probably time to start paying attention 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 10, 2023 Share Posted August 10, 2023 31 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: that does NOT look like a classic EB Nino. no idea what he’s talking about Reverse psychology on my part right now. I'm so desperate for winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 10, 2023 Share Posted August 10, 2023 2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: that does NOT look like a classic EB Nino. no idea what he’s talking about Needs clicks and retweets. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 10, 2023 Share Posted August 10, 2023 21 minutes ago, mattie g said: Needs clicks and retweets. I think he likes being the cold-water-thrower for east coast snow weenies too. He knows his stuff, but I think that colors it a bit. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 10, 2023 Share Posted August 10, 2023 1 hour ago, mattie g said: Needs clicks and retweets. Without even looking I'm sure snowmannumbs has parroted that tweet in the main thread to support his 'opinion'. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted August 11, 2023 Share Posted August 11, 2023 5 hours ago, CAPE said: Without even looking I'm sure snowmannumbs has parroted that tweet in the main thread to support his 'opinion'. If it snows a lot I get to enjoy the winter. If it’s another torch snowless winter the “it’s not actually snowing less, your eyes don’t work and you can’t math” crew have to shut up. Win either way. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted August 11, 2023 Author Share Posted August 11, 2023 We’ve never had a super Nino with the forcing centered west. We’ve had east and basin wide. It’s been theorized a west based super Nino would be very good. Maybe we will see. I'm good with what he had in 09-10 thank you Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted August 11, 2023 Share Posted August 11, 2023 All summer our weather appears to be influenced by a non-stop stream of energy coming across the great lake region. Are we expecting this to shift as we head into fall and winter? Trying to understand what to look for in terms of pattern change as we get closer to winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted August 11, 2023 Share Posted August 11, 2023 11 hours ago, psuhoffman said: If it snows a lot I get to enjoy the winter. If it’s another torch snowless winter the “it’s not actually snowing less, your eyes don’t work and you can’t math” crew have to shut up. Win either way. I would honestly take a failure of this winter if it meant the it’s actually not snowing crew stopped posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 11, 2023 Share Posted August 11, 2023 18 hours ago, WxUSAF said: I think he likes being the cold-water-thrower for east coast snow weenies too. He knows his stuff, but I think that colors it a bit. That's a good point. He's got a history of this kind of thing, so it makes sense that he'd double down. If he hits, he can gloat. If he busts, who cares? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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