Winter El Nino Tracking Thread 2023-2024

[WxUSAF]

“MONSTER EL NINO BY AUGUST” per DT

[stormy]

The monster El Nino by August is nothing more than hype by DT.  We can expect  a reasonable El Nino by Fall.  Probably a better winter next year with more precipitation and better chances of snow!   This is the likely pattern. This will save many from suicide....................

[Stormchaserchuck1]

El Nino with -QBO is a 1/8 year type of pattern (best), if you use those 2 variables. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index 

[CAPE]

New edition of CanSIPS for Dec. Bigger EPO ridge for Jan and esp Feb, plus -NAO.

[mattie g]

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

New edition of CanSIPS for Dec. Bigger EPO ridge for Jan and esp Feb, plus -NAO.

I am cautiously optimistic.  But I am guarded for two possible issues.  If the nino is too weak does it fail to alter the pacific base state enough.  Remember in 2019 long range guidance continued to "tease" that look above all fall and winter and it just never materialized.  The pattern wasn't "awful" but it just could never fully overcome the bad pacific base state to initiate the canonical nino look guidance was expecting. 

On the other hand if the nino is strong...does the subtropical warmth that typically gets injected into that kind of pattern overwhelm everything given the recent temperature trends...and we end up with a 1998 type winter only even warmer.  98 wasn't totally awful once you got into the northwest 1/3 of this forum.  And there were some epic snowstorms along skyline drive and out in the Snowshoe and Deep Creek area.  And a few of those storms were actually really close even for the cities...a repeat of 98 in the 1998 climate could have produced a decent outcome with a little more luck.  There were even a couple of those coastal storms where it was cold enough and then we got unlucky that those were the ones that got suppressed or cut due to an early phase.  If the temperatures were still in the 1998 base state I might say lets take a repeat and roll the dice.  All it takes is 1 or 2 of those massive coastal storms that were coming every week to be just cold enough and suddenly its a good year.  But in this current temperature base state...I kinda doubt we would ever get that pattern to work no matter how many times we rolled that dice.  We seem to need true polar airmasses to snow now...we could probably get 10 juiced up perfect track coastals in a row now with a maritime or even modified airmass and it would be rain every time.  

We really need that epo to help out or the subtropical airmass will likely dominate.  

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I am cautiously optimistic.  But I am guarded for two possible issues.  If the nino is too weak does it fail to alter the pacific base state enough.  Remember in 2019 long range guidance continued to "tease" that look above all fall and winter and it just never materialized.  The pattern wasn't "awful" but it just could never fully overcome the bad pacific base state to initiate the canonical nino look guidance was expecting. 

On the other hand if the nino is strong...does the subtropical warmth that typically gets injected into that kind of pattern overwhelm everything given the recent temperature trends...and we end up with a 1998 type winter only even warmer.  98 wasn't totally awful once you got into the northwest 1/3 of this forum.  And there were some epic snowstorms along skyline drive and out in the Snowshoe and Deep Creek area.  And a few of those storms were actually really close even for the cities...a repeat of 98 in the 1998 climate could have produced a decent outcome with a little more luck.  There were even a couple of those coastal storms where it was cold enough and then we got unlucky that those were the ones that got suppressed or cut due to an early phase.  If the temperatures were still in the 1998 base state I might say lets take a repeat and roll the dice.  All it takes is 1 or 2 of those massive coastal storms that were coming every week to be just cold enough and suddenly its a good year.  But in this current temperature base state...I kinda doubt we would ever get that pattern to work no matter how many times we rolled that dice.  We seem to need true polar airmasses to snow now...we could probably get 10 juiced up perfect track coastals in a row now with a maritime or even modified airmass and it would be rain every time.  

We really need that epo to help out or the subtropical airmass will likely dominate.  

I agree the -EPO is probably a key feature, and will likely be needed more going forward in order to inject enough cold into the pattern. The domestic variety doesn't seem to be getting it done nearly as much these days.

[CAPE]

Latest CFS runs now go out to Feb. 

Jan and Feb looking similar to CanSIPS. Favorable Pac, -AO/NAO. Dec isn't bad either. Fwiw ofc.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Posted this in ENSO thread in weather section too: We have had 4 years of +QBO/La Nina since 2008, and 4 -NAO's, but bad overall years for snow. I think this year if we are -QBO/El Nino +NAO's will give us snow. 

[Jebman]

I want that Brobdingnagian El Nino because I want the mid atlantic to get DeepCembered, JanuBuried, FebruBuried, MarchBuried ----- and I want Texas to get about ten feet of rain! I live on a fifty foot ridge so I dont even care if the rain goes truly Biblical. I am tired of drought. I want rain and ten foot weeds! It did that here in 2007! I wanna get swept away in a swollen creek, Californication-style! I WANNA BE THE ONE WHO GETS FRANTICALLY WATER-RESCUED!

Why should the West Coastal communities have all the fun? I want seventeen atmospheric rivers right here in south central Texas! I want US to get totally californicated with atmospheric rivers!

[Stormfly]

14 hours ago, Jebman said:

 I WANNA BE THE ONE WHO GETS FRANTICALLY WATER-RESCUED!

Many years ago I felt that way about lightning.

My best advice is be careful what you wish for!

 

[dailylurker]

39 minutes ago, Stormfly said:

Many years ago I felt that way about lightning.

My best advice is be careful what you wish for!

 

Bro? You finally got struck? Awesome lol

I've come within 100' of a strike about 5 times in my life. I've witnessed 3 stress being hit. I was skateboarding on a golf course path when I was 17 and the tree next to it was struck and the power knocked me off my skateboard. I've always been into weather so every strike I've witnessed was awesome lol. I even saw a lightning bolt during a snowstorm. I saw a house in Cape May NJ get hit and catch fire right in front of me. I've been nearly hit by trees blowing down. I have lots of experiences. 

[mattie g]

On 5/5/2023 at 6:07 PM, CAPE said:

Latest CFS runs now go out to Feb. 

Jan and Feb looking similar to CanSIPS. Favorable Pac, -AO/NAO. Dec isn't bad either. Fwiw ofc.

Jeremiah Johnson approves.

[Stormfly]

3 hours ago, dailylurker said:

Bro? You finally got struck? Awesome lol

I've come within 100' of a strike about 5 times in my life. I've witnessed 3 stress being hit. I was skateboarding on a golf course path when I was 17 and the tree next to it was struck and the power knocked me off my skateboard. I've always been into weather so every strike I've witnessed was awesome lol. I even saw a lightning bolt during a snowstorm. I saw a house in Cape May NJ get hit and catch fire right in front of me. I've been nearly hit by trees blowing down. I have lots of experiences. 

Countless times.  Shocked from sideflashes.  My ECG shows irregularities from the damages.

I'd take it to the banter thread though as I don't want to clog this up.

[CAPE]

May 11 ENSO diagnostic discussion update from CPC.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

Quote

Synopsis:  A transition from ENSO-neutral is expected in the next couple of months, with a greater than 90% chance of El Niño persisting into the Northern Hemisphere winter.

During April, above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) expanded slightly westward to the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly Niño-3.4 index value was +0.4°C, with the easternmost Niño-3 and Niño1+2 regions at +0.8°C and +2.7°C, respectively [Fig. 2]. Area-averaged subsurface temperatures anomalies continued to increase [Fig. 3], reflecting widespread positive temperature anomalies below the surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. Low-level wind anomalies were westerly during mid-April before switching back to easterly by the end of the month. Upper-level wind anomalies were westerly across most of the Pacific Ocean. Suppressed convection was observed over parts of Indonesia and anomalies weakened near the Date Line [Fig. 5]. While the warming near coastal South America remains striking, the basin-wide coupled ocean-atmosphere system remained consistent with ENSO-neutral.

The most recent IRI plume also indicates El Niño is likely to form during the May-July season and persist into the winter [Fig. 6]. The combination of a forecasted third westerly wind event in mid-late May, and high levels of above-average oceanic heat content, means that a potentially significant El Niño is on the horizon. While at least a weak El Niño is likely, the range of possibilities at the end of the year (November-January) include a 80% chance of at least a moderate El Niño (Niño-3.4 ≥ 1.0°C) to a ~55% chance of a strong El Niño (Niño-3.4 ≥ 1.5°C). It is still possible the tropical atmosphere does not couple with the ocean, and El Niño fails to materialize (5-10% chance). In summary, a transition from ENSO-neutral is expected in the next couple of months, with a greater than 90% chance of El Niño persisting into the Northern Hemisphere winter [Fig. 7].

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 5/13/2023 at 1:05 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Horrendous job on the December-March snowfall forecast this season...my worst in 9 years of doing this. However, I don't rate the forecast in its entirety as the worst. Diagnosis of the overall pattern, while leaving something to be desired, was not as poor as the great dearth of snowfall would imply. Primary issues were misdiagnosing the orientation of la nina and underestimating what turned out be a historic season Pacific cold phase.
Give this one a "D".
Time to flip the page and focus on the developing el nino-
https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/05/winter-2022-2023-seasonal-review.html

 

[AtlanticWx]

for fun

[CAPE]

CanSIPS depicts a basin wide Nino with the stronger +sst anomalies shifting westward more into the CP as winter progresses. This would potentially be a fun second half of winter.

 

[mattie g]

Those are just gorgeous...and F anyone who comes in here and tries to ruin any good super early vibes we have right now.

[CAPE]

7 hours ago, mattie g said:

Those are just gorgeous...and F anyone who comes in here and tries to ruin any good super early vibes we have right now.

Yeah we have a long way to go with probably a lot of hot, humid days to come, but this is something to look forward too. After 3 consecutive Ninas, this offers the hope of something different, with the possibility of the greater MA region having a better outcome wrt snow events, vs a complete shutout or relatively small areas scoring while the rest of the area misses out. The thought of the presence of a legit STJ with HL blocking episodes during winter is enticing. Those h5 looks suggest the possibility of suitable cold being injected into the pattern.

[frd]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

The thought of the presence of a legit STJ with HL blocking episodes during winter is enticing. Those h5 looks suggest the possibility of suitable cold being injected into the pattern.

Even cold enough for @psuhoffman    Bring it !!!!  

[psuhoffman]

16 hours ago, CAPE said:

Yeah we have a long way to go with probably a lot of hot, humid days to come, but this is something to look forward too. After 3 consecutive Ninas, this offers the hope of something different, with the possibility of the greater MA region having a better outcome wrt snow events, vs a complete shutout or relatively small areas scoring while the rest of the area misses out. The thought of the presence of a legit STJ with HL blocking episodes during winter is enticing. Those h5 looks suggest the possibility of suitable cold being injected into the pattern.

This "would" (because we don't know yet if its even real) be a perfect test of a running conversation we've had recently.  That pattern is literally our snowiest look historically.  But look at the actual temp anomalies...

It's seasonably chilly...but that is not an arctic cold look.  As is typical with most nino blocking regimes our source regions are relatively torched and true arctic air is cut off from the CONUS.  But there would be a very favorable storm track and we would need to rely on domestic cold.  Will that work in 2023/24 like it did numerous times in the past?  I have my popcorn ready!   

14 hours ago, frd said:

Even cold enough for @psuhoffman    Bring it !!!!  

As said above its not actually a cold look...it is a "snowy" look...at least historically.  Of course given how warm our winters have been lately a "near normal" one might feel frigid.  But I am not a fan of cold really...just need enough cold for snow and I am happy.  I do suspect we do at the least OK in that pattern.  Even if we no longer get 1987, 1996 or 2010 type results from something like that...I doubt the climate has degraded to the extent we get no snow from it either.  And if it is "just cold enough" we could get hypothetically even get MORE snow from some juiced up monster storms.  Imagine getting multiple 2016 type storms in a season!  

On 6/1/2023 at 9:09 AM, mattie g said:

Those are just gorgeous...and F anyone who comes in here and tries to ruin any good super early vibes we have right now.

You called... 

[brooklynwx99]

22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This "would" (because we don't know yet if its even real) be a perfect test of a running conversation we've had recently.  That pattern is literally our snowiest look historically.  But look at the actual temp anomalies...

It's seasonably chilly...but that is not an arctic cold look.  As is typical with most nino blocking regimes our source regions are relatively torched and true arctic air is cut off from the CONUS.  But there would be a very favorable storm track and we would need to rely on domestic cold.  Will that work in 2023/24 like it did numerous times in the past?  I have my popcorn ready!   

As said above its not actually a cold look...it is a "snowy" look...at least historically.  Of course given how warm our winters have been lately a "near normal" one might feel frigid.  But I am not a fan of cold really...just need enough cold for snow and I am happy.  I do suspect we do at the least OK in that pattern.  Even if we no longer get 1987, 1996 or 2010 type results from something like that...I doubt the climate has degraded to the extent we get no snow from it either.  And if it is "just cold enough" we could get hypothetically even get MORE snow from some juiced up monster storms.  Imagine getting multiple 2016 type storms in a season!  

You called... 

honestly seasonal models almost never have below average anomalies anywhere, so i think it’s very impressive that it has parts of the MA below average on a three month mean. no doubt it would be solidly below average with that 500mb pattern 

[Terpeast]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

honestly seasonal models almost never have below average anomalies anywhere, so i think it’s very impressive that it has parts of the MA below average on a three month mean. no doubt it would be solidly below average with that 500mb pattern 

And I also want to see 850mb temps (idk if that’s available on those seasonal forecasts). Our DJF climo is -4C at that level, plenty cold enough for snow. So near normal climo would be good enough. 

[Terpeast]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Even if we no longer get 1987, 1996 or 2010 type results from something like that...I doubt the climate has degraded to the extent we get no snow from it either.  And if it is "just cold enough" we could get hypothetically even get MORE snow from some juiced up monster storms.  Imagine getting multiple 2016 type storms in a season!  

I’m working on a side project to try and prove this out by using adjustments on daily temp and precip data at KIAD including SWE, to today’s climate to tease out whether a 15” storm in the 60s, 70s, or 80s would actually produce more today. I will also tease out, statistically, on how 2-4” events from the past would be affected in today’s climate. 

Hopefully I’ll come up with the results this summer. 

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

And I also want to see 850mb temps (idk if that’s available on those seasonal forecasts). Our DJF climo is -4C at that level, plenty cold enough for snow. So near normal climo would be good enough. 

Three-month average for DJF at 850 is -0.25C to -0.50C compared to normal.

December and February are -0.75C to -1.00C compared to normal, with January at average.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

With -QBO and warm western subsurface, I think we "want" a stronger Nino.. Weak to Moderate looks likely though. 18-19 showed that Weaker El Nino's can sometimes be conquered by the Pacific trend. I have a really strong +PNA signal for Dec, using methods unconnected to ENSO...

[Weather Will]

WB 6.1 CANSIPS

[CAPE]

13 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6.1 CANSIPS

Prince died. Did ya hear?

[Weather Will]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Prince died. Did ya hear?

I saw May above realize now it was May 31, oh well....