Winter El Nino Tracking Thread 2023-2024

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just reloads and reloads of -PNA as we possibly approach 90 degrees after April 15th. 

El Nino's don't have this kind of -PNA in April usually.. also remember the last El Nino (Weak) in 2018-19 had a +200dm -PNA in February, which is usually ENSO's highest correlated month to the N. Hemispheric pattern. 

-PNA through 15 day models usually correlates with cooling in the subsurface ENSO, which given the time pass gives us much lower chance for Stronger event. And Weaker El Nino's are not breaking the, what some would call, -PDO. 

[Ji]

Larry Cosgrove now gives favorability to a west based Nino.   Weak/moderate

Who?

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk

[CAPE]

 

[stormy]

13 hours ago, Ji said:

Who?

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk
 

Larry is the chief meteorologist at WEATHERAmerica.

[WxUSAF]

 

[mattie g]

^
I'm down with that. Toasty to start while the pools warm up, then transition to less heat as we start getting sick of it!

[CAPE]

ENSO update from down under.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[psuhoffman]

4 hours ago, CAPE said:

ENSO update from down under.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

CFS has our el nino!  LOL

[CAPE]

31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

CFS has our el nino!  LOL

CanSIPS ftw!

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, CAPE said:

CanSIPS ftw!

this is just as plausible, so I'll ride this into the sunset for now

[CAPE]

18 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is just as plausible, so I'll ride this into the sunset for now

It has 'normal' 2m temps for Jan and Feb, and below normal for March.

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

It has 'normal' 2m temps for Jan and Feb, and below normal for March.

i will take normal 2m temps with a STJ on roids and that blocky 500mb pattern

also getting a seasonal to show below normal temps when using the 1981-2010 climo is a feat already. i'm just excited we're getting a shakeup with the Nino

[brooklynwx99]

also, 2016 was an abject blowtorch with a +10 December, but it also gave BWI and NYC their biggest snowfalls ever. weird things happen in Ninos when the STJ is juiced

[Chris78]

15 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

also, 2016 was an abject blowtorch with a +10 December, but it also gave BWI and NYC their biggest snowfalls ever. weird things happen in Ninos when the STJ is juiced

I'm fine with a +10 Dec if I get another 40" storm in January 

[psuhoffman]

58 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

also, 2016 was an abject blowtorch with a +10 December, but it also gave BWI and NYC their biggest snowfalls ever. weird things happen in Ninos when the STJ is juiced

yea but a large number of our forum residents HATED 2016 because other than one storm it was a torch non winter.  Not everyone here is happy if our winter is just rooting to get lucky once or twice with a big storm...some actually like it to, you know...BE COLD in winter and actually have snow on the ground more than 5 minutes!  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I know this Winter all year long the models would have to shift toward a GOA low to have snow. No other patterns were holding any non-warm weight, just a GOA low. When it didn't happen, it wouldn't snow. I know a Strong Nino is the #1 GOA low pattern, but it's a really concerning signal going long term, the 1 condition needed for snow. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12 years I came up with since 1948, where the NAO -correlated to the EC, with this Winter being #1. I tried to filter out Pacific patterns too. 

analogs https://ibb.co/yRPshZv

The next Winter the pattern is uniform. These are 3 +/-/+ in sync wavelengths. fwiw https://ibb.co/XF39BLX pops the -PNA. We have more of a +AAM.

[Terpeast]

33 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

12 years I came up with since 1948, where the NAO -correlated to the EC, with this Winter being #1. I tried to filter out Pacific patterns too. 

analogs https://ibb.co/yRPshZv

The next Winter the pattern is uniform. These are 3 +/-/+ in sync wavelengths. fwiw https://ibb.co/XF39BLX pops the -PNA. We have more of a +AAM.

So you're thinking that after this winter, we'll see more of an east-based -NAO with a trough over central Canada/CONUS?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

17 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

So you're thinking that after this winter, we'll see more of an east-based -NAO with a trough over central Canada/CONUS?

I think it will be hard to break the -PNA. I've noticed the only short term index that is trending over the last few months is negative PNA. If we have a Stronger Nino, there should be a GOA low at least.

El Nino/-QBO is usually perfect for Stratosphere warmings, but we may have done 1 of the cycle already in Feb-March.

I don't think the 7 years in a row of -PNA is done, even if we have a stronger El Nino breaking it temporarily (which will be interesting to see if that happens, so far no signs of change in the N. Hemisphere). (Kind of an interesting clash coming up.)

I also have a satellite-era PDO signal for 4 Winters of +PNA starting 23-24, so maybe the opposite of what you're thinking.  That's just a map of NAO's that don't correlate, the next Winter, it becomes a pressure-dominant NAO index. 

[CAPE]

ENSO diagnostic discussion just updated today-

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

^The ENSO blog is a good read.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

On 4/12/2023 at 1:55 PM, psuhoffman said:

yea but a large number of our forum residents HATED 2016 because other than one storm it was a torch non winter.  Not everyone here is happy if our winter is just rooting to get lucky once or twice with a big storm...some actually like it to, you know...BE COLD in winter and actually have snow on the ground more than 5 minutes!  

I know you're being a bit snarky with that reply, but in all honesty there are a certain number of people that love to hate on that winter 2015-16.  Despite the HECS in January; and it wasn't really all some total "freak/luck" event either.  I'm not one of those, and would take that again just to re-live that one event and the lead-up to it.  Yes, December was abysmal with a +10 departure for the month (thank goodness that didn't happen in JULY!!  LOL!!).  Christmas Eve was downright muggy!!  And yes, we really had just the one event worthy of remembering.  But...oh, what an event!  To me, it's kind of amusing to say, "if it weren't for the big-ass snowstorm that we all followed a week in advance, winter sucked!"  It's kind of like saying, "Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play?"

If you look at DCA's records for that winter, Jan-Feb actually were both a bit COLDER than normal (Jan in particular).  At DCA!  And I think a lot of people forget the interesting little snow/ice event we had in mid-February.  We had some legit cold days the second half of January and in the middle part of February.  It's not like all was a torch other than one event; there were chances beyond the HECS that season.  I'd take that any time over the constant actual torch we had this Jan-Feb, with literally  NO snow outside a half-inch on Feb. 1 in the predawn hours that was gone before noon (and almost literally no real chance of anything all winter).

Maybe I'm one who just likes to take the discrete good events or periods that happen for themselves, in a lot of ways.  Heck, I actually view winter 2006-07 to be pretty good here, and a hair from being one that would be very memorable for everyone (the Valentine's Day sleet storm was not far from being a foot-plus of snow, and was during a very cold period that month). 

[Maestrobjwa]

On 4/17/2023 at 10:01 PM, Always in Zugzwang said:

I know you're being a bit snarky with that reply, but in all honesty there are a certain number of people that love to hate on that winter 2015-16.  Despite the HECS in January; and it wasn't really all some total "freak/luck" event either.  I'm not one of those, and would take that again just to re-live that one event and the lead-up to it.  Yes, December was abysmal with a +10 departure for the month (thank goodness that didn't happen in JULY!!  LOL!!).  Christmas Eve was downright muggy!!  And yes, we really had just the one event worthy of remembering.  But...oh, what an event!  To me, it's kind of amusing to say, "if it weren't for the big-ass snowstorm that we all followed a week in advance, winter sucked!"  It's kind of like saying, "Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play?"

If you look at DCA's records for that winter, Jan-Feb actually were both a bit COLDER than normal (Jan in particular).  At DCA!  And I think a lot of people forget the interesting little snow/ice event we had in mid-February.  We had some legit cold days the second half of January and in the middle part of February.  It's not like all was a torch other than one event; there were chances beyond the HECS that season.  I'd take that any time over the constant actual torch we had this Jan-Feb, with literally  NO snow outside a half-inch on Feb. 1 in the predawn hours that was gone before noon (and almost literally no real chance of anything all winter).

Maybe I'm one who just likes to take the discrete good events or periods that happen for themselves, in a lot of ways.  Heck, I actually view winter 2006-07 to be pretty good here, and a hair from being one that would be very memorable for everyone (the Valentine's Day sleet storm was not far from being a foot-plus of snow, and was during a very cold period that month). 

I'm with ya on 2015-16. Ya know, given what we've dealt with since, you'd think that winter would grow in popularity. I mean uh...that was the most recent blizzard we've had, folks! I for one am even more thankful for that one now, lol 

Now I don't remember the chances after that blizzard, but in comparison with what we've had? A one blizzard and done would be gold! I do however understand wanting to have cold and snow throughout the winter (or at the very least throughout our prime window). But we can't afford to be picky anymore.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

El Nino struggling but we did pass the "random point barrier" where it's odds increase (for example)from 1-5 to 1-100, so we'll probably have a Weak to Moderate El Nino. 

[psuhoffman]

On 4/17/2023 at 10:01 PM, Always in Zugzwang said:

I know you're being a bit snarky with that reply, but in all honesty there are a certain number of people that love to hate on that winter 2015-16.  Despite the HECS in January; and it wasn't really all some total "freak/luck" event either.  I'm not one of those, and would take that again just to re-live that one event and the lead-up to it.  Yes, December was abysmal with a +10 departure for the month (thank goodness that didn't happen in JULY!!  LOL!!).  Christmas Eve was downright muggy!!  And yes, we really had just the one event worthy of remembering.  But...oh, what an event!  To me, it's kind of amusing to say, "if it weren't for the big-ass snowstorm that we all followed a week in advance, winter sucked!"  It's kind of like saying, "Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play?"

If you look at DCA's records for that winter, Jan-Feb actually were both a bit COLDER than normal (Jan in particular).  At DCA!  And I think a lot of people forget the interesting little snow/ice event we had in mid-February.  We had some legit cold days the second half of January and in the middle part of February.  It's not like all was a torch other than one event; there were chances beyond the HECS that season.  I'd take that any time over the constant actual torch we had this Jan-Feb, with literally  NO snow outside a half-inch on Feb. 1 in the predawn hours that was gone before noon (and almost literally no real chance of anything all winter).

Maybe I'm one who just likes to take the discrete good events or periods that happen for themselves, in a lot of ways.  Heck, I actually view winter 2006-07 to be pretty good here, and a hair from being one that would be very memorable for everyone (the Valentine's Day sleet storm was not far from being a foot-plus of snow, and was during a very cold period that month). 

I am somewhere in the middle on the 2016 debate.  That storm was awesome.  I also had another decent 8" event up here in Feb which made a big difference.  But at the same time most of the snow in our area did come from one storm...places just north and south of where that storm hit ended up with one of their least snowy seasons every that winter!  That is playing with fire putting all your eggs in one basket like that.  I don't want our winters to become basically rooting for one fluke like we are NC or something!  I would prefer a real winter where its actually legit cold for long stretches and we get multiple events.  2014 and 2015 are the last 2 "real" winters IMO.  That doesn't mean I would kick 2016 out of bed...I am not hating on it like some do...but I do acknowledge its not necessarily what I want to root for either.  

[Rhino16]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I am somewhere in the middle on the 2016 debate.  That storm was awesome.  I also had another decent 8" event up here in Feb which made a big difference.  But at the same time most of the snow in our area did come from one storm...places just north and south of where that storm hit ended up with one of their least snowy seasons every that winter!  That is playing with fire putting all your eggs in one basket like that.  I don't want our winters to become basically rooting for one fluke like we are NC or something!  I would prefer a real winter where its actually legit cold for long stretches and we get multiple events.  2014 and 2015 are the last 2 "real" winters IMO.  That doesn't mean I would kick 2016 out of bed...I am not hating on it like some do...but I do acknowledge its not necessarily what I want to root for either.  

So for you, is a “real winter” kind of a rare thing around here then? Maybe I’m just too young to remember much from then, but those don’t seem to happen often. Of course I’m a bit south too… so maybe that might have an impact.

[MN Transplant]

In my mind, a 2015-16-like season is still a winner because it contained a truly historic snowstorm.  I think it would be different if we were talking about a region wide 12-18” storm.

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

In my mind, a 2015-16-like season is still a winner because it contained a truly historic snowstorm.  I think it would be different if we were talking about a region wide 12-18” storm.

Eastern areas ended up with the latter(closer to 12 in most cases) due to the dry slot from hell and nothing from the deform band. I had 15 here. Still a nice storm, and I had one other minor event that winter, so ended up right around average. The overall warmth was hard to take though.

[Maestrobjwa]

45 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Eastern areas ended up with the latter(closer to 12 in most cases) due to the dry slot from hell and nothing from the deform band. I had 15 here. Still a nice storm, and I had one other minor event that winter, so ended up right around average. The overall warmth was hard to take though.

Yeah the Christmas summer t-storm, turning on the A/C, and mushrooms growing in our front yard both royally SUCKED and was slightly fascinating! (one weird quirk about the super niños on record that produced: All three had very warm Christmas Days! I remember that year I was hoping it would repeat itself and that time it didn't lol) The Jan storm was a nice payoff for the warmth for me.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

On 4/19/2023 at 10:31 AM, psuhoffman said:

I am somewhere in the middle on the 2016 debate.  That storm was awesome.  I also had another decent 8" event up here in Feb which made a big difference.  But at the same time most of the snow in our area did come from one storm...places just north and south of where that storm hit ended up with one of their least snowy seasons every that winter!  That is playing with fire putting all your eggs in one basket like that.  I don't want our winters to become basically rooting for one fluke like we are NC or something!  I would prefer a real winter where its actually legit cold for long stretches and we get multiple events.  2014 and 2015 are the last 2 "real" winters IMO.  That doesn't mean I would kick 2016 out of bed...I am not hating on it like some do...but I do acknowledge its not necessarily what I want to root for either.  

I totally hear you, PSU, and overall I agree concerning 2015-16. It is hard to just look past that one amazing event but also it really was not the most memorable season beyond that. Well, if you consider the extreme December warmth, I guess that is memorable LOL! I wonder if the 8" event you got was the same mid-Feb snow/ice event we got farther south here. And I agree, don't like having to root for the historical level event to save a winter! 2013-14 and 2nd half of 2014-15 were more consistent in terms of longer lasting cold. Which was awesome of course! I guess my point is that I never got all the 2016 "hate" that so many seem to have. Going into that winter, I recall expectations being kind of reserved with a very strong Nino. But also that some expected a higher than normal chance of a big event. And honestly after an April-like December, that Jan-Feb were pretty OK temperature-wise. 

[psuhoffman]

On 4/20/2023 at 10:48 PM, Always in Zugzwang said:

I totally hear you, PSU, and overall I agree concerning 2015-16. It is hard to just look past that one amazing event but also it really was not the most memorable season beyond that. Well, if you consider the extreme December warmth, I guess that is memorable LOL! I wonder if the 8" event you got was the same mid-Feb snow/ice event we got farther south here. And I agree, don't like having to root for the historical level event to save a winter! 2013-14 and 2nd half of 2014-15 were more consistent in terms of longer lasting cold. Which was awesome of course! I guess my point is that I never got all the 2016 "hate" that so many seem to have. Going into that winter, I recall expectations being kind of reserved with a very strong Nino. But also that some expected a higher than normal chance of a big event. And honestly after an April-like December, that Jan-Feb were pretty OK temperature-wise. 

For me 2016 was the start of the phenomenon of getting mid winter perfect track rainstorms. We didn’t think much of it because it was a super Nino and that’s actually common in strong ninos. The great storm track can come with too much warmth. But it’s been happening regularly since then also.