cheese007 Posted March 25, 2023 Share Posted March 25, 2023 D7 15% issued covering large, populated chunks of KS/OK/TX. Something to watch 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 27, 2023 Author Share Posted March 27, 2023 3-30 risk area shrunk down but 3-31 expanded dramatically with a 30% contour added 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CryHavoc Posted March 27, 2023 Share Posted March 27, 2023 That might be the largest d5 30% I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted March 27, 2023 Share Posted March 27, 2023 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted March 28, 2023 Share Posted March 28, 2023 Thursday downgraded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 30, 2023 Author Share Posted March 30, 2023 D2 MOD issued covering much of Arkansas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 Tornado prob increased with slightly larger area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 SPC AC 301732 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI...AND ALSO ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...EXTREME WESTERN KENTUCKY...WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND FAR NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Intense and widespread severe thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon into the overnight hours across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley and Mid-South vicinity, eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Intense, damaging gusts and several tornadoes (some strong and long-track) are expected. ...A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected on Friday across parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley and also into the Mid-South... ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough and attendant 100 kt midlevel jet will move quickly eastward from the central Plains into parts of the MS Valley and Midwest on Friday. A surface low will deepen as it moves across IA toward the Great Lakes region, as a cold front sweeps eastward through parts of the Great Plains into the mid-MS Valley. In advance of the cold front, low-level moisture will stream northward across a broad warm sector from the ArkLaTex region into parts of the lower/mid MS Valley and Midwest. ...Mid-MS Valley vicinity into IN/lower MI... Rapid destabilization and increasing large-scale ascent will support thunderstorm development by early/mid afternoon across parts of IA into northern MO. Very strong deep-layer shear (effective shear in excess of 60 kt) and MLCAPE increasing to 1000-1500 J/kg (locally greater) will support organized convection, with initial supercell development expected somewhere over central IA into north-central MO. Very large hail will be the initial threat, given steep midlevel lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft. Some uncertainty remains regarding the convective mode evolution with time, but a few semi-discrete supercells are expected to move into an environment with stronger low-level shear/SRH across eastern IA into northwest IL by late afternoon, posing a threat for a couple strong tornadoes. Evolution into small clusters or bowing segments is expected, resulting in an increasing threat of severe/damaging winds in addition to a continued threat of a few tornadoes and sporadic hail. Organized convection will spread eastward into parts of IN/southern MI Friday night. Instability will weaken with eastward extent, but some threat for damaging wind and a couple of tornadoes will persist before a more definitive weakening trend occurs overnight into early Saturday morning. ...ArkLaTex/Mid South vicinity into the TN/lower OH Valleys... A concerning scenario still appears possible across portions of the MO Bootheel, northeast AR, western TN/KY and far northwest MS vicinity during the afternoon/evening. At least mid-60s F dewpoints are expected beneath modest midlevel lapse rates. This will support 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE amid intense vertical shear. Forecast soundings indicate 0-1 km SRH increasing to around 400 m2/s2 by early afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon ahead of the cold front within a pre-frontal trough/low-level confluence zone. Storm motion near 50 kt with supercell wind profiles will support cells capable of significant and long-track tornadoes. With time, upscale growth into a QLCS is expected, and intense wind gusts will be possible in addition to mesovortex tornadoes. The threat for damaging gusts and a few line-embedded tornadoes will spread into parts of the TN and lower OH Valleys Friday night, with a gradual weakening trend eventually expected overnight as storms move into increasingly weak buoyancy with eastward extent. ..Dean.. 03/30/2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 I haven't gone out yet this year and I may actually bite on this with the southern target. Looks to have somewhat slower storm motions and its only 4 hours away for me compared to the northern target. It also looks to not be an entirely overnight event, which is a plus. I will decide later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Pivotal Weather released an interesting new CAM model to their data feed. The RRFS A. It shows a pretty ugly situation for central and eastern AR by early afternoon tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 15 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said: Pivotal Weather released an interesting new CAM model to their data feed. The RRFS A. It shows a pretty ugly situation for central and eastern AR by early afternoon tomorrow. That is pretty extreme. Between the HRRR and the rest of the CAM, this is as an extreme/high-end as you can get outside of a super outbreak scenario. The parameter space and warm sector is indeed impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 31, 2023 Author Share Posted March 31, 2023 Hatched tor area now covers the space between the two MOD risk zones. Over 14 million people under the gun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 This is the strongest wording I’ve seen in an SPC outlook in a long time. They’re always mindful of their wording and it’s very notable that they not only use the word “violent” to describe the tornado threat; but that strong/violent tornadoes are “probable.”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 This is the strongest wording I’ve seen in an SPC outlook in a long time. They’re always mindful of their wording and it’s very notable that they not only use the word “violent” to describe the tornado threat; but that strong/violent tornadoes are “probable.”.Probably strongest wording I've ever seen that isn't a high risk. Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 One big hatched area now... That's a huge area for a 15% hatched tor risk. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Probably strongest wording I've ever seen that isn't a high risk. Sent from my SM-S901U using TapatalkI’ve never been a huge high risk pusher… but you have to think with an area that big **somewhere** within it a high risk could be justified. Maybe a midday trigger pull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Due to mesoscale uncertainties, I understand not delineating a high risk at this time. Either way, a very broad area looks primed for tornadic supercells today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrklem10 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Sun trying to peak out in SE Arkansas. Very humid and lots of energy in the air... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Seems that high might be coming. And also one for the southern target. Wow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 My current target area is Searcy, AR, seems to check out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CryHavoc Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 First PDS watch is now active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 31, 2023 Author Share Posted March 31, 2023 95/90 tor probs SEL3 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 93 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Iowa Western Illinois Northern and Central Missouri Southwest Wisconsin * Effective this Friday morning and evening from 1145 AM until 800 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Numerous tornadoes expected with a few intense tornadoes likely Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Intense supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and spread eastward across the watch area. Tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds are all possible with this activity. Parameters are favorable for the potential for strong/violent tornadoes and very large hail. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 115 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles east of Jefferson City MO to 55 miles east northeast of Mason City IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24040. ...Hart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMT417 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 12 minutes ago, CryHavoc said: First PDS watch is now active. 95/90 probabilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Wow wasn't expecting a double high risk area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 I know everyone is going on about that northern watch box but the southern one will be no slouch either. Both Highs seem justified. We got sunshine down here right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrklem10 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Sunshine is beaming in SE Arkansas.... Not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 31, 2023 Author Share Posted March 31, 2023 90/90 tor probs SEL4 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 94 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Much of Arkansas Southern Illinois Western Kentucky Southern Missouri Northwest Mississippi West Tennessee Northeast Texas * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 1230 PM until 800 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and spread across the mid Mississippi Valley region this afternoon and early evening. Supercells capable of damaging tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds are all possible. Parameters are sufficiently favorable for the risk of strong/violent tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 120 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles east southeast of El Dorado AR to 5 miles northwest of Saint Louis MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 93... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Hart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 31, 2023 Author Share Posted March 31, 2023 It begins Tornado Warning IAC039-053-159-175-311830- /O.NEW.KDMX.TO.W.0001.230331T1740Z-230331T1830Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1240 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 The National Weather Service in Des Moines has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northern Decatur County in south central Iowa... Southeastern Union County in south central Iowa... Eastern Ringgold County in south central Iowa... Southwestern Clarke County in south central Iowa... * Until 130 PM CDT. * At 1240 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 5 miles northwest of Hatfield, or 8 miles south of Mount Ayr, moving northeast at 50 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Mt Ayr Municipal Airport around 1245 PM CDT. Kellerton around 1255 PM CDT. Beaconsfield around 100 PM CDT. Other locations in the path of this tornadic thunderstorm include Sun Valley Lake, Grand River, Decatur City and Van Wert. This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 12 and 25. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 4100 9393 4081 9365 4057 9411 4057 9436 TIME...MOT...LOC 1740Z 223DEG 42KT 4059 9420 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN $$ Hagenhoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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