CheeselandSkies Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 1 hour ago, stormdragonwx said: Couldn't help but notice in later outlooks SPC changed the wording from "Tornado Outbreak" to "Severe Weather Outbreak". The HRRR lost its cluster of simulated long-track, warm sector sups with phat red UH streaks for a few runs in the mid-morning. Just speculation on my part but I think it was confused by the moisture mixing out and whether the later mass response/LLJ would be enough to recover from that. The 17Z run is back to suggesting several long-track, cyclic sups capable of families of EF3+ from LA/AR into MS this evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 First tornado warning of the day out for Western Arkansas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 Prospects so far don't look great for discrete supercells down there. HRRR looks messy again too. That linear convective mess is getting close to overtaking the risk area. Something better start popping out ahead in the next hour or two. Otherwise this may just be a QLCS event with a bunch of spinups vs. violent long track supercell tors thru the evening. Granted this is good news for the general public that live there, if so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 Latest HRRR run suggests that this might be a nocturnal outbreak. Best parameters look to be after 7pm, right about when the LLJ gets cranking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 7pm-11pm looks to be the best window for significant severe weather. QLCS looks to be a broken line with some discrete supercells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 I had 3.1 inches from this system, had a brief hailstorm of peas with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 25, 2023 Share Posted March 25, 2023 Large wedge tornado in progress near Rolling Fork, MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoalaBeer Posted March 25, 2023 Share Posted March 25, 2023 1 minute ago, andyhb said: Large wedge tornado in progress near Rolling Fork, MS. Reed has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted March 25, 2023 Share Posted March 25, 2023 Yup chasers are scoring big in western MS right now. (excuse the pun) https://twitter.com/Tornado_Warned/status/1639432371169804289/photo/1 Another: https://twitter.com/WxZachary/status/1639433366725328897?s=20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted March 25, 2023 Share Posted March 25, 2023 Textbook CC drop now being recorded. Obvious direct hit taken to Rolling Fork, MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CryHavoc Posted March 25, 2023 Share Posted March 25, 2023 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0329.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted March 25, 2023 Share Posted March 25, 2023 Gate to Gate is 185+. Well into the EF4 range with velocities still increasing. This supercell is surface based and rooted, this will likely be a cyclic long tracked long lived violent tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 25, 2023 Share Posted March 25, 2023 Debris above 30k feet with this thing, very likely violent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted March 25, 2023 Share Posted March 25, 2023 Dire messages coming from chasers on Twitter. https://twitter.com/DFWStormChasing/status/1639437281755791360?s=20 EDIT: Images coming in now. Photo Credit: Zachary Hall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted March 25, 2023 Share Posted March 25, 2023 9 minutes ago, andyhb said: Debris above 30k feet with this thing, very likely violent. Very indicative of a EF4+. Not a good thing to see on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 25, 2023 Share Posted March 25, 2023 Rare TORE has been issued for this tornadic storm as well for the past 30 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 25, 2023 Share Posted March 25, 2023 Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Jackson MS 833 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023 MSC053-125-250200- /O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0028.000000T0000Z-230325T0200Z/ Humphreys MS-Sharkey MS- 833 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023 ...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR MIDNIGHT AND SILVER CITY... ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR HUMPHREYS AND SHARKEY COUNTIES... At 833 PM CDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located near Midnight, or 7 miles south of Belzoni, moving northeast at 55 mph. TORNADO EMERGENCY for MIDNIGHT AND SILVER CITY! This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Deadly tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of Humphreys and Sharkey Counties, including the following locations... Silver City, Cary and Louise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted March 25, 2023 Share Posted March 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Rare TORE has been issued for this tornadic storm as well for the past 30 minutes Yeah the duration of this TORE is approaching rare territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted March 25, 2023 Share Posted March 25, 2023 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0329.html Mesoscale Discussion 0329 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0824 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023 Areas affected...North-central MS Concerning...Tornado Watch 76... Valid 250124Z - 250215Z CORRECTED FOR ERROR IN SPATIAL DELINEATION The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 76 continues. SUMMARY...An intense tornado (EF3+) is likely ongoing with a supercell tracking northeastward across western Sharkley County MS, and this storm should persist for the next 30-60 min. DISCUSSION...Latest radar data shows an organized cyclonic supercell tracking northeastward across western Sharkley County MS, with a VROT above 70 kt and well-defined TDS up to 13k ft -- indicative of an intense tornado (EF3+) given the parameter space (STP of 4). The downstream environment features a large, clockwise-curved hodograph per DGX VWP (around 430 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH) amid rich boundary-layer moisture. This will support the maintenance of this intense supercell toward the northeast for the next 30-60 min. ..Weinman.. 03/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted March 25, 2023 Share Posted March 25, 2023 35 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said: Reed has it. Looks like he was cut off abruptly. They are saying something might have happened to Reed. (Not sure what happened) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 25, 2023 Share Posted March 25, 2023 tornado may have tracked for 31-32 miles already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 25, 2023 Share Posted March 25, 2023 Massive perfect tornado on Reeds feed about 10 mins ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted March 25, 2023 Share Posted March 25, 2023 Another video of the Wedge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted March 25, 2023 Share Posted March 25, 2023 Very impressive that this tornado been on the ground as long as it has. Definitely a textbook situation to teach concerning what happens when a supercell matures and can get surface based/rooted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted March 25, 2023 Share Posted March 25, 2023 As of what has already happened wasn’t enough, new tornado now going up 30mi back to the SW behind the long tracked violent tornado. Following the same path as the main tornado we been tracking. Debris signature and gate to gate signatures evident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 25, 2023 Share Posted March 25, 2023 Terrifying. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted March 25, 2023 Share Posted March 25, 2023 Starting to see velocities increase with a tighter gate to gate. Debris ball back on radar now. Don’t think the main/parent violent tornado ever weakened, it obviously moved into a rural area and now beginning to move into a more populated area. This tornado now has a historic feel to it, for all the wrong reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted March 25, 2023 Share Posted March 25, 2023 There's a very solid chance it fully cycled before it redeveloped quickly near/over Black Hawk given both couplet degradation and CC drop disappearing for at least 2 scans. The former you could see a handoff with the couplet almost seeming to occlude into the larger developing circulation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted March 25, 2023 Share Posted March 25, 2023 https://www.twitch.tv/agendafreetv Major Tornado Damage in Rolling Fork, Mississippi - LIVE Breaking News Coverage 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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