cheese007 Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 Got 15% contours on D4/D5 covering parts of OK and TX the first day and AR/AL/LA/MS/TX/TN the second 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 Missing all the good severe weather events... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 Looking over this for the past few days, Friday could be a very nasty day basically from the Sabine Valley across the Lower MS Valley towards the Tennessee Valley. The 500 mb setup on the GFS/Euro/etc. favors a significant severe event, and a few of the models are starting to catch on to greater destabilization than indicated earlier, and some of this could be nocturnal. 30% hatched on the D3 currently and I think there's a good chance we see at least a moderate risk by D2/D1. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 Friday looks potentially potent. Tomorrow looks like a sloppy mess with nearly front-parallel shear, cold front undercutting storms and relatively weak low level wind fields. I may be dragged out to chase since it’s local, but OKC should stay out of the main threat, as the target area trends farther south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 New Day `1 New Day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 Here is the NAM forecast sounding for eastern Arkansas for 03z (tomorrow night), with effective STP of 4.3. Some odd things going on in the hodograph at 3km above ground, but I'm not sure too much to talk about, given the fact that the rest of the hodograph is excellent for tornadoes. The 3km NAM (not shown here) has up to 490 m2/s2 of 3km SRH at the Arkansas/Louisiana border. HRRR for 03z tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 Take it FWIW, but the system that will cause these events crashed into California yesterday and Monday….and in my 15 years living in Los Angeles it was the strongest system I’ve experienced. Some highlights: - 102 mph wind gust in Valencia, CA - confirmed tornado in Montebello, CA (strongest observed in the Los Angeles area since 1983). Rating still TBD but will likely be assigned an EF-0 or EF-1 based on damage produced - several 60-90 mph wind gusts in San Francisco due to a bomb cyclone that developed at the center of the low pressure system I got my eyes on this one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 This radar image from Montebello/Los Angeles tornado from a youtube video from channel "Convective Chronicles" (I recently found this excellent channel) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 1 hour ago, Chinook said: This radar image from Montebello/Los Angeles tornado from a youtube video from channel "Convective Chronicles" (I recently found this excellent channel) I saw on Twitter too that there were tropical characteristics as well with that low on the cross section Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 3 hours ago, Normandy said: Take it FWIW, but the system that will cause these events crashed into California yesterday and Monday….and in my 15 years living in Los Angeles it was the strongest system I’ve experienced. Some highlights: - 102 mph wind gust in Valencia, CA - confirmed tornado in Montebello, CA (strongest observed in the Los Angeles area since 1983). Rating still TBD but will likely be assigned an EF-0 or EF-1 based on damage produced - several 60-90 mph wind gusts in San Francisco due to a bomb cyclone that developed at the center of the low pressure system I got my eyes on this one How rare is it for LA/Cali to get tornadoes? Edit: Neverminded. Just noticed the mention of 1983. That's pretty rare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 Watch coming. 67F dewpoint at SPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 20 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Watch coming. 67F dewpoint at SPS. Any thoughts on the new graphic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 1 hour ago, weatherextreme said: Any thoughts on the new graphic It packs more info into the graphic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 You could check annual graphics from the SPC going back several years to see the tornadoes in California. example: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2022_annual_summary.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 Shocked there isn’t more hype with tomorrows well advertised Moderate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 HRRR looks quite ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 interesting that CIPS analog #3 lines up almost perfectly with the calendar date 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 Here's some hype for you. I think there's a high chance of EF1+ tornadoes and significant wind reports after sunset tomorrow. The nighttime severe is always more concerning, as people aren't ready for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 This was posted on another forum. Looks nasty 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 1 minute ago, weatherextreme said: This was posted on another forum. Looks nasty Same guy @Chinook posted the video from. I enjoy his videos as he generally forecasts without hyperbole unlike Weed Trimmer or Ryan Hall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 SPC outlook makes it seem like they were quite close to a high risk, but the disagreement from the CAMs held them off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 24, 2023 Author Share Posted March 24, 2023 Yikes @ Memphis being in the Mod risk area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 06z HRRR, holy mother of god… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 From 6z to 9z, there are rather large significant improvements in the low level thermos on the HRRR. Not a great sign, as it further indicates a loaded gun environment is evolving. I would venture to say if trends continue we see a High Risk issuance for LA and MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 Northeast Louisiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 10z hrrr not as impressive from a reflectivity standpoint compared to earlier runs. It does develop discrete activity ahead of the line but it seems to really struggle to take off. Run to run differences at this point aren't shocking with models trying to figure out morning convection. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 One noticeable thing to point out, 2 waves of isolated ahead of the QLCS. Previous runs only had 1 wave but there’s a 2nd wave at the end of the 10z run. Another thing to mention is the separation between the discrete supercells is improving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
METALSTORM Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 Is there an analog to compare this to? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 Couldn't help but notice in later outlooks SPC changed the wording from "Tornado Outbreak" to "Severe Weather Outbreak". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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