Spring 2023 Banter Hangout

[SolidIcewx]

1 hour ago, Jonger said:

I might be wrong, but I believe they spray this down and then spread the fine gravel over it. They rarely ever do this here.

 

They did all the dirt roads here in SW Wayne county where I am working out off. I’m glad they did roads fked my work truck

[OrdIowPitMsp]

2 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

Wouldn't mind a real heat wave sooner than later

No thanks, perhaps if it comes with convection but please no more death ridge this summer.

[madwx]

4 hours ago, Jonger said:

I might be wrong, but I believe they spray this down and then spread the fine gravel over it. They rarely ever do this here.

 

you can smell the cancer from here

[frostfern]

15 hours ago, Lightning said:

Unfortunately this is pretty typical for this area.  Occasionally we get going in May but more times than not I have found that T-storm season for our area is around/after Memorial Day weekend.  Kind of like snows in October into early November.  Yes it happens but don't count on it .  I consider any good t-storm activity IMBY prior to Memorial Day as bonus activity.

Seems almost every summer there are long stretches where all the thunder stays west of Michigan.  The stronger storms make it to the Michigan side of Lake Michigan, but a lot of garden variety MCS arrive late at night in their final death throws, then the next day is like 30% chance of a popup before the cold front comes through at 2pm.

[SolidIcewx]

6 hours ago, frostfern said:

Seems almost every summer there are long stretches where all the thunder stays west of Michigan.  The stronger storms make it to the Michigan side of Lake Michigan, but a lot of garden variety MCS arrive late at night in their final death throws, then the next day is like 30% chance of a popup before the cold front comes through at 2pm.

That’s pretty damn accurate. Waking up for work to see a decaying blob about to move in

[hardypalmguy]

8 hours ago, frostfern said:

Seems almost every summer there are long stretches where all the thunder stays west of Michigan.  The stronger storms make it to the Michigan side of Lake Michigan, but a lot of garden variety MCS arrive late at night in their final death throws, then the next day is like 30% chance of a popup before the cold front comes through at 2pm.

you just described eastern WI weather.

[A-L-E-K]

we usually get lots of good training storms here in chicago, best climo imo

[hardypalmguy]

2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

we usually get lots of good training storms here in chicago, best climo imo

the lake kills them

[A-L-E-K]

yeah, se wind def hurt u further north and obv michigan has bad tstorm climo

[frostfern]

4 hours ago, hardypalmguy said:

the lake kills them

The lake doesn't have much of an effect at night as far as training storms go.  There's just climatologically more instability the more west you go because the gulf moisture goes up the plains and then curves east.  MCS gets ahead of the CAPE pool by the time it gets to the Great Lakes.  That combined with a bad synoptic pattern with a ridge to the west and a trough to the east = suppression.

[A-L-E-K]

not our forum but new 2 me

legit?

looks wild af

[Chicago Storm]

13 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

not our forum but new 2 me

legit?

looks wild af

Yea, it was confirmed to be legit.

More of a landspout.

[A-L-E-K]

s tier landspout

[Powerball]

1 hour ago, frostfern said:

The lake doesn't have much of an effect at night as far as training storms go.  There's just climatologically more instability the more west you go because the gulf moisture goes up the plains and then curves east.  MCS gets ahead of the CAPE pool by the time it gets to the Great Lakes.  That combined with a bad synoptic pattern with a ridge to the west and a trough to the east = suppression.

 

That's because storms tend to be rooted higher up in the atmosphere at night (and also feed off instability rooted higher up in the atmosphere), so the surface marine layer has much less of an impact on their intensity.

As far as moisture, yes, all the corn fields in IA/IL do help to give areas west of the lakes an extra boost (evapotranspiration). That doesn't have much to do with how moisture advects northward from the gulf though.

[Stebo]

5 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

yeah, se wind def hurt u further north and obv michigan has bad tstorm climo

Recently yes, historically no. We are one of a handful of states to have multiple F5s and thats not even including 1896 outbreak that would assuredly yielded more. Not to mention the countless derechoes we had especially in the 90s. I don't know what has happened since then though but its been sparse other than a few outlying years for tornadoes 2010/2021.

[cyclone77]

I'm ready for another derecho

[frostfern]

13 hours ago, Powerball said:

 

That's because storms tend to be rooted higher up in the atmosphere at night (and also feed off instability rooted higher up in the atmosphere), so the surface marine layer has much less of an impact on their intensity.

As far as moisture, yes, all the corn fields in IA/IL do help to give areas west of the lakes an extra boost (evapotranspiration). That doesn't have much to do with how moisture advects northward from the gulf though.

I hate how this forum doesn’t have a good quote breakup ability on phone, but you didn’t understand what I said.  Most training events are not rooted at the surface, so it isn’t Lake Michigan thats stopping them.  The real problem is cold fronts suck at producing good precip here because the narrow band of return-flow instability gets eaten up by convection to the west.  Michigan never gets gulf moisture first.  It has nothing to do with corn. What is the pattern for training nocturnal storms in Michigan?  Its usually a stalled E-W baroclinic zone with strong 850mb moisture flux from the SW.  For some reason that pattern hasn’t been happening as frequently.

[frostfern]

13 hours ago, Stebo said:

Recently yes, historically no. We are one of a handful of states to have multiple F5s and thats not even including 1896 outbreak that would assuredly yielded more. Not to mention the countless derechoes we had especially in the 90s. I don't know what has happened since then though but its been sparse other than a few outlying years for tornadoes 2010/2021.

There actually have been some significant straight line wind events on this side of the state the last few years.  There have been long periods with little garden variety or general thunder.  Things get brown every summer by July.  I remember garden variety storms and nocturnal heavy rain events being more common in the 90s and 00s.

[WestMichigan]

34 minutes ago, frostfern said:

There actually have been some significant straight line wind events on this side of the state the last few years.  There have been long periods with little garden variety or general thunder.  Things get brown every summer by July.  I remember garden variety storms and nocturnal heavy rain events being more common in the 90s and 00s.

When I first moved to Michigan in 2010 I distinctly remember in Holland waking up multiple times to tstorms very late at night to right before sunrise.  It almost was regular enough to make me think this is how it goes in Michigan.  Then reality set in over the next 12 years and I realized this was an anomaly, not the norm.

[Powerball]

1 hour ago, frostfern said:

...Most training events are not rooted at the surface...

Maybe you misunderstood what I said, because that was my point exactly.

The fact that most "Training Storms" are not rooted at the surface is why they have an easier time surviving trips across the lake, versus surface-based storms which are more likely to produce severe weather. 

Quote

Michigan never gets gulf moisture first.

There have been plenty of setups where Michigan got a good feed of moisture from the gulf while other areas did not. It's all dependent on jet dynamics and the orientation of the trough. Now of course, that moisture advecting northward into Michigan from the Gulf of Mexico is traveling hundreds of miles over relatively barren land, so of course it's going to be modified & shallow by the time it reaches your latitude. This is unlike in the Plains where it's a lot harder for gulf moisture to mix out because of the added evapotranspiration from the corn fields.

Synoptically-speaking, there's nothing special about Michigan and its location that explains the lower frequency of severe weather. It has everything to do with features such as the cool lake waters and the relative lack of crop/vegetation that holds extra moisture.

Quote

It has nothing to do with corn.

That's not true.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/08/02/corn-sweat-midwest-plains-heatwave/
 

Quote

What is the pattern for training nocturnal storms in Michigan?...For some reason that pattern hasn’t been happening as frequently...

The ideal setup for training storms is the same everywhere, and it's not specific to Michigan. 

The truth is though, training events are pretty unusual in their own right everywhere (due to the nature of how convection works). Most locations don't experience them often.

[Jonger]

3 hours ago, WestMichigan said:

When I first moved to Michigan in 2010 I distinctly remember in Holland waking up multiple times to tstorms very late at night to right before sunrise.  It almost was regular enough to make me think this is how it goes in Michigan.  Then reality set in over the next 12 years and I realized this was an anomaly, not the norm.

Summer storm activity in Michigan has really declined over the last 15 years or more.

[frostfern]

15 hours ago, Powerball said:

Maybe you misunderstood what I said, because that was my point exactly.

The fact that most "Training Storms" are not rooted at the surface is why they have an easier time surviving trips across the lake, versus surface-based storms which are more likely to produce severe weather. 

You responded as if you were correcting something I said, when I didn't say anything different.  We agree.  The fact that you responded as if you disagreed made it look like you misunderstood me.

 

15 hours ago, Powerball said:

There have been plenty of setups where Michigan got a good feed of moisture from the gulf while other areas did not. It's all dependent on jet dynamics and the orientation of the trough. Now of course, that moisture advecting northward into Michigan from the Gulf of Mexico is traveling hundreds of miles over relatively barren land, so of course it's going to be modified & shallow by the time it reaches your latitude. This is unlike in the Plains where it's a lot harder for gulf moisture to mix out because of the added evapotranspiration from the corn fields.

I don't think Michigan t-storm frequency being climatologically lower than Illinois or southern Wisconsin can be explained by corn evapotranspiration.  It's not just a "from-late-June-on" problem.  It's present in April and May as well as much later in the summer when southern Lower Michigan also has mature corn.

15 hours ago, Powerball said:

Synoptically-speaking, there's nothing special about Michigan and its location that explains the lower frequency of severe weather. It has everything to do with features such as the cool lake waters and the relative lack of crop/vegetation that holds extra moisture

Actually, the Rocky Mountains play a huge role that you are completely ignoring.  The low level jet that forms over the plains and transports moisture north during the spring and summer is a climatological feature, not completely unlike the Gulf Stream over the western Atlantic.  The analogy isn't 100% because ocean dynamics are quite different, but they are both examples of a boundary current caused by flow from the west being blocked (though only partially blocked in the atmospheric case). 

Steep mid-level lapse rates above 700 mb also contribute massively to instability over the eastern US.  The elevated mixed layer that causes steep mid-level lapse rates has origins over the Western US or northern Mexico.  Higher terrain causes it.  Regions to the south and west of Michigan have access to this unstable mid-level airmass first as well. 

In the end I don't think crops play as much of a role in decreasing instability as upstream convection using up the energy and overturning the airmass before it reaches Michigan.  Generally, the farther south and west you go the greater instability there is climatologically, and it's almost 100% due to proximity to being closer to both the GOM and Rocky Mountains.

16 hours ago, Powerball said:

The ideal setup for training storms is the same everywhere, and it's not specific to Michigan. 

The truth is though, training events are pretty unusual in their own right everywhere (due to the nature of how convection works). Most locations don't experience them often.

Yes, but the pattern has been less frequent lately over Michigan, especially in the spring.  Also, you are using a pretty narrow definition.  True training events are rare, but stationary E-W boundaries are not so rare.  Even if you do not get a classic training event, a stalled E-W boundary usually provides multiple opportunities for convection, sometimes over a period of several days.  These patterns just don't happen here with the frequency they used to.  The most prominent recent example I can think of occurred in late August into early September in 2018.  That kind of setup used to happen in May and June more years than not, but now it seems like it hardly ever occurs in the spring or early summer.

[Powerball]

2 hours ago, frostfern said:

I don't think Michigan t-storm frequency being climatologically lower than Illinois or southern Wisconsin can be explained by corn evapotranspiration.  It's not just a "from-late-June-on" problem.  It's present in April and May as well as much later in the summer when southern Lower Michigan also has mature corn...

...Actually, the Rocky Mountains play a huge role that you are completely ignoring.  The low level jet that forms over the plains and transports moisture north during the spring and summer is a climatological feature, not completely unlike the Gulf Stream over the western Atlantic.  The analogy isn't 100% because ocean dynamics are quite different, but they are both examples of a boundary current caused by flow from the west being blocked (though only partially blocked in the atmospheric case). 

Steep mid-level lapse rates above 700 mb also contribute massively to instability over the eastern US.  The elevated mixed layer that causes steep mid-level lapse rates has origins over the Western US or northern Mexico.  Higher terrain causes it.  Regions to the south and west of Michigan have access to this unstable mid-level airmass first as well. 

In the end I don't think crops play as much of a role in decreasing instability as upstream convection using up the energy and overturning the airmass before it reaches Michigan.  Generally, the farther south and west you go the greater instability there is climatologically, and it's almost 100% due to proximity to being closer to both the GOM and Rocky Mountains...

It can definitely be explained by corn evapotranspiration in part, in addition to the cooler lake waters acting acting as buffers.

As far as Corn, the coverage is fairly miniscule in Michigan compared to IA/IL/IN/MN.

It should also be noted, the climatological peak for severe weather in that part of the country (despite what seems to be the common misconception) is late June / early July. April and May aren't all that favorable for severe weather outside of the Central/Southern Plains.

And yes, Chinook Winds are a thing in the Western Plains (The Dakotas, Nebraska, KS, OK and TX). But not so much in IA/MN/WI/IL/IN/MO which all see a significantly greater frequency of severe weather than Michigan.

 

[cyclone77]

Iowa's the new Oklahoma.  Wedges bruh

[frostfern]

22 hours ago, Powerball said:

It should also be noted, the climatological peak for severe weather in that part of the country (despite what seems to be the common misconception) is late June / early July. April and May aren't all that favorable for severe weather outside of the Central/Southern Plains.

I was talking about garden variety t-storm suppression.  t-storm season runs from April to October.  Instability decreases as you move from SW to NE across the Great Lakes all those months.  It doesn't just suppress severe weather, it suppresses garden variety storms too.

 

22 hours ago, Powerball said:

And yes, Chinook Winds are a thing in the Western Plains (The Dakotas, Nebraska, KS, OK and TX). But not so much in IA/MN/WI/IL/IN/MO which all see a significantly greater frequency of severe weather than Michigan.

Chinook Winds != Elevated Mixed Layer.  Completely different things.  Elevated mixed layers and low level jets are huge weather phenomenon that cover multiple states at a time.  They are not confined to the Western Plains.  Low pressure systems forming on the lee side of the Rocky Mountains pull gulf moisture in from the south and southeast and steep mid-level lapse rates in from the west and southwest.  These favorable features translate east along with the parent system, but they become less pronounced with time due to a number of factors --- convective overturning (when cap breaks), airmass shearing out horizontally, and moisture mixing out vertically.  Therefore the favorable "loaded gun" temperature/humidity profile is more pronounced the closer you are to the GOM (source region for tropical moisture) and also higher terrain to the west (source region for the elevated mixed layer).  The favorable parameter space diminishes gradually as you move away from the source region.

Corn plays a role in boosting the instability for major derechos in the corn belt, but the climatology would be similar even if there was no corn.  Corn transpires a lot, but its not the only thing that transpires in the summer.  Forests and wetlands add moisture as well.

[Stebo]

Looking forward to my chasecation that starts a week from today, there is potential though it is conditional to start before increasing. It will just be good to be on the road.

[Harry]

You all can have the high wind and severe hail that's been had here the past decade or so.. 

As for the lack of for the rest of the state I think part of it seems like terrible timing with frontal passage etc. Always seems to arrive at night and or early in the day. 

Amazes me how it can be like night and day between the SW corner of this state ( south of i96 and west of i69 ) and the rest of it. 

[Powerball]

2 hours ago, Harry said:

You all can have the high wind and severe hail that's been had here the past decade or so.. 

As for the lack of for the rest of the state I think part of it seems like terrible timing with frontal passage etc. Always seems to arrive at night and or early in the day. 

Amazes me how it can be like night and day between the SW corner of this state ( south of i96 and west of i69 ) and the rest of it. 

The bolded is definitely luck of the draw.

[Powerball]

On 5/14/2023 at 12:21 AM, frostfern said:

...but the climatology would be similar even if there was no corn...

To say their climo would be similar is a big leap, but yes, their severe weather frequency would still be relatively higher than Michigan's even without the corn because, again, they don't have massive bodies of cool water surrounding them.

[Lightning]

Interesting topic. Michigan has plenty of corn fields and foliage so the difference there is negligible.  Great lakes and front timing definitely have a bit to do with it.  My observations is pattern in which drought/dry areas have a lot to do with it.  When the OV and upper Mississippi valley are dry to drought conditions then MBY tends to get great thunderstorms (2021 is a great example).  In simple if IA, IN, IL and WI are having a rocking summer then normally MBY isn't.   When they are complaining in this banter thread about dryness are normally my best storm summers.  No it is not always a sure bet to work out that way (it's the weather).  I look for a specific pattern that works more times than not for MBY.