Lightning Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 5 hours ago, SolidIcewx said: Hoping for some of those training events also! Perfect for lightning. I go to Clearwater on the 17th and look forward to all the lightning at nighttime when the storms are popping off around me by the ocean I love the 2-5 hour training events as you say they are the great for lightning. Plus I am very lucky in that my area can handle several inches of rain without major flooding concern (minor yes). I really hope we can get some incredible events this summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 2 hours ago, Powerball said: The heat lightning on Summer nights in Florida is definitely the best. There was an event in MI about 15-20 years ago (wanna say 2006-ish time frame?) that had awesome heat lightning too. Was seeing frequent lightning flashes in the cloud tops of storms that were hitting Saginaw from all the way on Detroit's east side. Then headed into the evening and after sunset, it was non-stop flashes to the west and NW as storms gradually moved in from SW Michigan (they did weaken before reaching the city though). Distant lightning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 29, 2023 Author Share Posted April 29, 2023 Remember how the long range looked promising? It doesn’t anymore. Two or three backdoor cold fronts from the Northeast with freezing temps through the middle of the month. Sweet.it still does.ens>op guidance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: it still does. ens>op guidance. People need to stop using the op beyond day 10, hell day 7 even. This isn't that hard, all you need to do is look at the op run to run to see how wildly inconsistent it is beyond day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 11 minutes ago, Stebo said: Distant lightning. The NWS recognizes Heat Lightning as a way to describe it. So as I said, Heat Lightning. https://www.weather.gov/safety/lightning-heat#:~:text=The term heat lightning is,to hear the accompanying thunder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 MJO suggesting a warm up later in the week and beyond. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 4 minutes ago, Harry said: MJO suggesting a warm up later in the week and beyond. The NAO/AO/PNA are all projected to trend towards neutral as well. Obviously, this all will make more of a difference the further SW one is, with respect to the extent of warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 3 minutes ago, Powerball said: The NWS recognizes Heat Lightning as a way to describe it. So as I said, Heat Lightning. https://www.weather.gov/safety/lightning-heat#:~:text=The term heat lightning is,to hear the accompanying thunder. The term heat lightning is commonly used to describe lightning from a distant thunderstorm just too far away to see the actual cloud-to-ground flash or to hear the accompanying thunder. Thanks for proving my point for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 1 hour ago, Lightning said: I love the 2-5 hour training events as you say they are the great for lightning. Plus I am very lucky in that my area can handle several inches of rain without major flooding concern (minor yes). I really hope we can get some incredible events this summer That’s a good thing! I remember a couple summers ago the rouge flooded in canton along with everywhere else. Old timers telling me they have not seen the canton portion flood in over 50 years. I was trapped in my neighborhood and water too deep without risking my vehicles. The storms that form from extreme cape is something else to witness as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 What? You mean to tell me the OP runs won’t verify 5-10 days out? Ridiculous. Accuweather has the forecast for the next 2 months! I’m just taming my optimism for the warm-up in the event that it gets shunted (thanks blocking). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 4 minutes ago, Harry Perry said: What? You mean to tell me the OP runs won’t verify 5-10 days out? Ridiculous. Accuweather has the forecast for the next 2 months! I’m just taming my optimism for the warm-up in the event that it gets shunted (thanks blocking). The blocking will weaken, all the teleconnections go toward favorable values and the MJO progresses out of the phase it is in now. The ensembles reflect this nicely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 9 minutes ago, Stebo said: The blocking will weaken, all the teleconnections go toward favorable values and the MJO progresses out of the phase it is in now. The ensembles reflect this nicely. Thanks for that Stebo. I’ve noticed the MJO looks favorable for a transition to possibly warmer than normal by week 2 of May. Hopefully we get a little more spring instead of 40’s and 50’s right to 80’s. It’s about time, seems the blocking really tending to favor us in recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 20 minutes ago, Harry Perry said: Thanks for that Stebo. I’ve noticed the MJO looks favorable for a transition to possibly warmer than normal by week 2 of May. Hopefully we get a little more spring instead of 40’s and 50’s right to 80’s. It’s about time, seems the blocking really tending to favor us in recent years. It should be gradual this time around. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted April 30, 2023 Share Posted April 30, 2023 I'm feeling pretty good about the upcoming pattern here on the west edge of the sub-forum. Sure, it's lousy today and for another couple days, but midweek and beyond it looks much better. I will be hitting the garden centers starting Wednesday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted April 30, 2023 Share Posted April 30, 2023 19 hours ago, Stebo said: The term heat lightning is commonly used to describe lightning from a distant thunderstorm just too far away to see the actual cloud-to-ground flash or to hear the accompanying thunder. Thanks for proving my point for me. How much of an ass can you be? Sheesh man, of course that’s what it is, he even admitted that the storms were far off. If anything it’s something that usually occurs during warmer seasons only where you get the truly towering thunderstorms. Awesome to see while flying at night to be honest 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 30, 2023 Share Posted April 30, 2023 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted April 30, 2023 Share Posted April 30, 2023 On 4/28/2023 at 9:50 AM, Cary67 said: Looking to plant some stuff by next weekend. That used to mean WEED @Jackstraw would be reaching out 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 1, 2023 Share Posted May 1, 2023 15 hours ago, nwohweather said: How much of an ass can you be? Sheesh man, of course that’s what it is, he even admitted that the storms were far off. If anything it’s something that usually occurs during warmer seasons only where you get the truly towering thunderstorms. Awesome to see while flying at night to be honest Heat lightning is just not the correct term, I don't care what people called it 50 years ago, the correct scientific term is distant lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 1, 2023 Share Posted May 1, 2023 15 hours ago, nwohweather said: How much of an ass can you be? Sheesh man, of course that’s what it is, he even admitted that the storms were far off. If anything it’s something that usually occurs during warmer seasons only where you get the truly towering thunderstorms. Awesome to see while flying at night to be honest Spring storms in Michigan are often hidden by layers of frontal clouds. Summer is when you get the blossoming distant towers with clear conditions for miles around. I got video of a really good frequent IC display as a backbuilding complex slowly slid off to the S and SE in late August 2019. This was one of the best ones I have seen on this side of the state. https://youtu.be/YL4YWlq-bwg 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted May 1, 2023 Share Posted May 1, 2023 Not gonna lie the precip screw hole in the LP of MI is definitely welcome. I’ll take cold and breezy then add rain on top edit: not 15 mins after I post I got hailed on pretty good while I’m working lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted May 1, 2023 Share Posted May 1, 2023 2 hours ago, SolidIcewx said: Not gonna lie the precip screw hole in the LP of MI is definitely welcome. I’ll take cold and breezy then add rain on top edit: not 15 mins after I post I got hailed on pretty good while I’m working lol I got about 0.1" of sleet with one of the showers that moved through. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 1, 2023 Share Posted May 1, 2023 4 hours ago, SolidIcewx said: Not gonna lie the precip screw hole in the LP of MI is definitely welcome. I’ll take cold and breezy then add rain on top edit: not 15 mins after I post I got hailed on pretty good while I’m working lol Would be "mercy hole". The sun was actually poking through earlier. Now its back to cold and gray with a pathetic drizzle you can feel on your skin but can't really even see with the naked eye. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted May 1, 2023 Share Posted May 1, 2023 Call me crazy but I bet we’ll be wishing for a day like this in about 20 or 30 days 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted May 1, 2023 Share Posted May 1, 2023 37 minutes ago, Harry Perry said: Call me crazy but I bet we’ll be wishing for a day like this in about 20 or 30 days I had a similar thought today. A month from now today will be forgotten as it could be mid to upper 80s even low 90s with severe storms knocking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted May 1, 2023 Share Posted May 1, 2023 1 hour ago, Harry Perry said: Call me crazy but I bet we’ll be wishing for a day like this in about 20 or 30 days Next time I want this weather is October or November. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted May 3, 2023 Share Posted May 3, 2023 All I gotta say is yuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted May 3, 2023 Share Posted May 3, 2023 5 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: All I gotta say is yuck I totally hate dirt roads. Spent 16 years on one..... never again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted May 3, 2023 Share Posted May 3, 2023 15 minutes ago, Jonger said: I totally hate dirt roads. Spent 16 years on one..... never again. They repaved it last Thursday and since 1.5-2” has fallen. Holes so bad my work truck had to go to the shop. Measured one 6.5” deep water covered too so hard to tell what ones will eat your tire for breakfast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted May 3, 2023 Share Posted May 3, 2023 40 minutes ago, Jonger said: I totally hate dirt roads. Spent 16 years on one..... never again. I would say to stay away from dirt roads because of the mud (I live on a dirt road) but it is not like the paved roads are always better. Some of the paved roads have potholes 365 days a year and take them years to schedule/do replacement. At least they grade the dirt roads frequent enough that a good 80%+ of the year they are in great shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 3, 2023 Share Posted May 3, 2023 lol dirt roads little house on the prairie shit 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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