Spring 2023 Banter Hangout

[hardypalmguy]

1 hour ago, beavis1729 said:

A general comment, not just directed at you: most people on this forum know their climo.
 

But if you’re a warm weenie (or snow, severe, etc.), climo isn’t good enough. It’s just how life goes. 
 

If you’re a sports fan, an average season isn’t good enough. You don’t play the game for an average season, you play to win it all. 
 

And if you enjoy something in life, you want more of it. I like chocolate, so eating an average amount of chocolate isn’t good enough. 
 

I know these are strange analogies, but it’s reality. 

what if you like hookers and blow?

[weatherbo]

17 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

what if you like hookers and blow?

or palms

[RogueWaves]

On 4/25/2023 at 4:33 PM, Chicago Storm said:

data says, learn your climo.

...April 60+/70+/80+ Days & Monthly Average By Year For Detroit...

April Average
60+: 14.3
70+: 5.8
80+: 1.1
Month Average: 48.9

April 2023 (Thru 4/24)
60+: 11
70+: 7
80+: 4
Month Average: +3.4

April 2022
60+: 9
70+: 4
80+: 1
Month Average: -2.1

April 2021
60+: 14
70+: 6
80+: 3
Month Average: +1.7

April 2020
60+: 11
70+: 2
80+: 0
Month Average: -2.8

April 2019
60+: 13
70+: 4
80+: 0
Month Average: +0.1

April 2018
60+: 8
70+: 3
80+: 0
Month Average: -5.9

April 2017
60+: 20
70+: 10
80+: 1
Month Average: +5.4

April 2016
60+: 11
70+: 4
80+: 1
Month Average: -2.6

April 2015
60+: 20
70+: 3
80+: 0
Month Average: +1.1

April 2014
60+: 14
70+: 7
80+: 1
Month Average: 0.0

April 2013
60+: 11
70+: 4
80+: 1
Month Average: -2.5

April 2012
60+: 15
70+: 4
80+: 0
Month Average: +0.5

He's off wrt 5th in a row, but only 2017 jumps out as memorably AN in a dozen. So in a way that data set rather backs up his complaint. This may end up 2nd best but after SHSN all week and Freeze Warns in a row, it will be challenging to remember the great week of April.

[rainsucks]

11 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

Yea I guess I just get excited when April comes, expecting consistent warmth which isn't the norm. It would just be nice to get a torch April or March, and that just hasn't happened in awhile.

We had a torch March in 2021. Sure, it wasn't 2012, but still a torch nonetheless.

[rainsucks]

12 hours ago, IWXwx said:

The trough just keeps on troughin'

At least we're starting to get to that time of year where a little below normal doesn't feel bad

[CorePunch]

These air-masses will deeply moderate as we keep progressing into mid spring. Obviously the sun runs the show. Signs the blocking busts out by D10-12. Wait and see. 

[WestMichigan]

15 hours ago, IWXwx said:

The trough just keeps on troughin'

Waiting for our Dayton area friend Spartman to come on and complain how it will never get warm in his back yard this summer.

[SolidIcewx]

Found this on Reddit. Such an awesome display of sprites

[mississaugasnow]

9 hours ago, WestMichigan said:

Waiting for our Dayton area friend Spartman to come on and complain how it will never get warm in his back yard this summer.

Haha I’ll play his part. I won’t say the entire summer but the fact we came out of one of the cloudiest winters ever and it continues is a sign of concern. 
 

May is pretty much a write off. I’ll take below average and sunny but it’s below average and cloudy plus rain for the foreseeable future

[Harry]

On 4/26/2023 at 7:58 AM, Stevo6899 said:

Yea I guess I just get excited when April comes, expecting consistent warmth which isn't the norm. It would just be nice to get a torch April or March, and that just hasn't happened in awhile.

 

After March 2012 I'll pass on that. Usually leads to a torch summer especially if it's a dry spring across the region. Or so it seems.  I just know I want no parts of that summer again.. 

[Stevo6899]

14 hours ago, Harry said:

 

After March 2012 I'll pass on that. Usually leads to a torch summer especially if it's a dry spring across the region. Or so it seems.  I just know I want no parts of that summer again.. 

Different strokes. I'm OK with rain if it's warm. A warm april/march doesn't mean the summer will be hot. I was spoiled down in florida this winter. Temps were 85, 10 above normal almost everyday, and it rained like 2 times. Unfortunately Ive been back in detroit since march 26th for family issues, and i miss the everyday warmth/sun. I want all the heat. It makes me feel good. Looks like maybe 5 more days of garbage then hopefully the 60s and 70s are here to stay .

[Cary67]

Looking to plant some stuff by next weekend. 

[Lightning]

On 4/26/2023 at 7:58 AM, Stevo6899 said:

Yea I guess I just get excited when April comes, expecting consistent warmth which isn't the norm. It would just be nice to get a torch April or March, and that just hasn't happened in awhile.

I have really learned to enjoy the Sept and Oct warmth more now and now get bummed when we get a cool October. 

I don't mind the our normal delayed springs anymore (I used to hate them).  I have found most of MI just doesn't typically get great t-storms in March and Aprils (can happen with major outbreaks but typically not so much). I have observed that May begins true spring and the beginning of decent t-storms season (Mid-May into Sept) for my area.  

[Stevo6899]

Another one of those rain storms where you look at the radar and wonder why the deformation band never looks as good and as slow moving in the winter lol.

[Stevo6899]

15 minutes ago, Lightning said:

I have really learned to enjoy the Sept and Oct warmth more now and now get bummed when we get a cool October. 

I don't mind the our normal delayed springs anymore (I used to hate them).  I have found most of MI just doesn't typically get great t-storms in March and Aprils (can happen with major outbreaks but typically not so much). I have observed that May begins true spring and the beginning of decent t-storms season (Mid-May into Sept) for my area.  

While I enjoy a good severe storm and snowstorms, I also enjoy warmth 12 months out of the year. When you've had 3 back surgeries, you appreciate the warmth. Ill be 37 next week and the cold is starting to affect my body/aches lol.

Severe is hard to come by in metro detroit so i guess thats another reason why I want warmth asap. Ive been spoiled and fortunate enough to be able to kinda have both living in florida and fly back for snow. Looks like I'm gonna be home for awhile so it's all good. There really isn't a better place to be during the summer than the great lakes, up north, so ill enjoy it vs the humidity down south in the summer. Just over these overcast/rainy cold days.

[Lightning]

1 hour ago, Stevo6899 said:

Another one of those rain storms where you look at the radar and wonder why the deformation band never looks as good and as slow moving in the winter lol.

Truth!!!

[weatherbo]

Even tho this would be one heck of a stat padder, I honestly would prefer rain.

[Powerball]

1 hour ago, Stevo6899 said:

While I enjoy a good severe storm and snowstorms, I also enjoy warmth 12 months out of the year. When you've had 3 back surgeries, you appreciate the warmth. Ill be 37 next week and the cold is starting to affect my body/aches lol.

Severe is hard to come by in metro detroit so i guess thats another reason why I want warmth asap. Ive been spoiled and fortunate enough to be able to kinda have both living in florida and fly back for snow. Looks like I'm gonna be home for awhile so it's all good. There really isn't a better place to be during the summer than the great lakes, up north, so ill enjoy it vs the humidity down south in the summer. Just over these overcast/rainy cold days.

Wow! I figured you were older than 37...

And sorry to hear about the surgeries and body aches. That's pretty young to have back problems to such an extent.

[Stevo6899]

13 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Wow! I figured you were older than 37...

And sorry to hear about the surgeries and body aches. That's pretty young to have back problems to such an extent.

Yea I bitch, moan and complain like I'm in my 60's. Ill try to dial it back and be grateful its almost summer lol. Back issues runs deep in my family and since I've been golfing since I was 15, a daily runner/cyclist, it's just wear n tear. I had a spinal fusion 3 years ago and I think the back is finally 100%. These rainy/chilly days I definitely feel the stiffness in the back.

[Jonger]

2 hours ago, weatherbo said:

Even tho this would be one heck of a stat padder, I honestly would prefer rain.

Saw this. Any chance that verifies?

[weatherbo]

4 hours ago, Jonger said:

Saw this. Any chance that verifies?

This is the forecast through 8 pm Monday from NWS and also from the local met for the total event, and for fun the 18z gfs

[Harry]

Goofy models showing 4-6 here Monday. Doubtful unless it falls after dark I suppose? 

[frostfern]

On 4/26/2023 at 11:57 AM, Harry Perry said:

Man.. thanks for that. Kinda hurts. 

Fun Fact: The sun angle is currently the same as early August. 

The sun angle would do something for us if that dumb blocking upper low would stop slinging the turd weather south from the arctic.

[frostfern]

On 4/26/2023 at 7:34 PM, rainsucks said:

We had a torch March in 2021. Sure, it wasn't 2012, but still a torch nonetheless.

Its funny how “torch” can mean mid 50s and showers if it happens in a snow month.  Only here. 

[frostfern]

13 hours ago, Lightning said:

I have really learned to enjoy the Sept and Oct warmth more now and now get bummed when we get a cool October. 

I don't mind the our normal delayed springs anymore (I used to hate them).  I have found most of MI just doesn't typically get great t-storms in March and Aprils (can happen with major outbreaks but typically not so much). I have observed that May begins true spring and the beginning of decent t-storms season (Mid-May into Sept) for my area.  

Recent years there have been long t-storm droughts from mid-June into late July where everything gets brown.  That annoying super-amplified plains ridge where every MCS just dives straight S from northern Minnesota into Illinois and the cold fronts all come through dry east of there.  It the late spring season is a dud it often doesn’t get interesting again until August.

[Lightning]

6 hours ago, frostfern said:

Recent years there have been long t-storm droughts from mid-June into late July where everything gets brown.  That annoying super-amplified plains ridge where every MCS just dives straight S from northern Minnesota into Illinois and the cold fronts all come through dry east of there.  It the late spring season is a dud it often doesn’t get interesting again until August.

Yeah there has been a lack recently of good nocturnal thunderstorms during the summer months IMBY.  To be fair there has been a couple great events sprinkled in but recent years they have been fewer.  I have even had several non-weather people comment to me about that (especially the lack of great CG type storms).  I will say 2021 summer was my best thunderstorm summer in the past day 10 years-ish.   1 good in 10 years is underwhelming.  I believe Detroit possibly Ann Arbor though has done much better (that just might be my perception).

 

Hopefully this year we can break that trend and have a great thunderstorm CG filled summer 

[SolidIcewx]

1 hour ago, Lightning said:

Yeah there has been a lack recently of good nocturnal thunderstorms during the summer months IMBY.  To be fair there has been a couple great events sprinkled in but recent years they have been fewer.  I have even had several non-weather people comment to me about that (especially the lack of great CG type storms).  I will say 2021 summer was my best thunderstorm summer in the past day 10 years-ish.   1 good in 10 years is underwhelming.  I believe Detroit possibly Ann Arbor though has done much better (that just might be my perception).

 

Hopefully this year we can break that trend and have a great thunderstorm CG filled summer 

Hoping for some of those training events also! Perfect for lightning. I go to Clearwater on the 17th and look forward to all the lightning at nighttime when the storms are popping off around me by the ocean

[Powerball]

3 hours ago, SolidIcewx said:

Hoping for some of those training events also! Perfect for lightning. I go to Clearwater on the 17th and look forward to all the lightning at nighttime when the storms are popping off around me by the ocean

The heat lightning on Summer nights in Florida is definitely the best.

There was an event in MI about 15-20 years ago (wanna say 2006-ish time frame?) that had awesome heat lightning too. Was seeing frequent lightning flashes in the cloud tops of storms that were hitting Saginaw from all the way on Detroit's east side. Then headed into the evening and after sunset, it was non-stop flashes to the west and NW as storms gradually moved in from SW Michigan (they did weaken before reaching the city though).

[Harry Perry]

Remember how the long range looked promising? 
 

It doesn’t anymore. Two or three backdoor cold fronts from the Northeast with freezing temps through the middle of the month. 
 

Sweet.

[rainsucks]

paving the way for a cold summer this year, can't wait!