Spring 2023 Banter Hangout

[SolidIcewx]

Wicked supercell in Mississippi going on right now 

[SolidIcewx]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

The Chicago fire was 1871. I think the michigan wildfires were also early 1870s

The thumb fire of 1881 is another one I was thinking of

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, SolidIcewx said:

The thumb fire of 1881 is another one I was thinking of

Wow I had not heard of that one. I just looked it up. It was Sept 5, 1881. That september still stands as the hottest on record for detroit. On Sept 5 the high/low was 94/74 amd the low that night only dropped to 77.

[SolidIcewx]

8 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Wow I had not heard of that one. I just looked it up. It was Sept 5, 1881. That september still stands as the hottest on record for detroit. On Sept 5 the high/low was 94/74 amd the low that night only dropped to 77.

It was definitely a hot summer in combination of the bad logging practices. Insane how it burned a million acres in a day. If I remembered correctly when I was doing some reading on this awhile back ( I’d have to go back and find it) but the thumb fire is one of the big reasons the thumb region has a lot of farm land now. I bet you can still find some of those scars by the creek/riverbeds and around if you checked sediments. Burned all the way to the shores of Huron imagine being a boat going to port Huron or Detroit and witnessing a wall of red

[King James]

Local paper has article on front page how spring sports in the county are off to slow starts due to cold and rain. 
 

Feel like we are due for some truly warm and sunny days 

[SolidIcewx]

7 minutes ago, King James said:

Local paper has article on front page how spring sports in the county are off to slow starts due to cold and rain. 
 

Feel like we are due for some truly warm and sunny days 

I keep telling my kids we are within a month of having some 70s it can happen. Then a cold front that drops a quick 2-4 behind it

[RogueWaves]

On 3/24/2023 at 12:07 AM, michsnowfreak said:

There were incredibly roller coaster winters in those decades. 

Very warm winters in the Midwest were

1875-76

1877-78

1879-80

1881-82

1889-90

Interesting. If you add 100 yrs to each, you get a group of some of the colder winters. 

[hardypalmguy]

I keep telling my kids we are within a month of having some 70s it can happen. Then a cold front that drops a quick 2-4 behind it

We are within a month of 80s dude.

[bowtie`]

Has to be Spring. They started up the fountain at the retention pond in front of the hospital...

 

[rainsucks]

think we might have an April 2018 redux this year, the long range is looking pretty bad.

[cyclone77]

Is COD having issues with their models?  Was looking at the Euro on COD and it looks totally different compared to other sites.  For example the H5 winds at 186hr from last night's run looks way different that Pivotal and WxBell.  The COD site says it's the current run so what the heck?

[hardypalmguy]

Palm weather is officially here.  My 400 baby windmills are going outside this weekend.

[Chicago Storm]

Is COD having issues with their models?  Was looking at the Euro on COD and it looks totally different compared to other sites.  For example the H5 winds at 186hr from last night's run looks way different that Pivotal and WxBell.  The COD site says it's the current run so what the heck?

per usual, they’re having issues.


.

[TheClimateChanger]

On 3/23/2023 at 11:13 PM, michsnowfreak said:

How come when discussing how much winter temps warmed we start in 1970, but when discussing greenup we start in 1800? And if trees blooming in early-mid May is "exceptionally early", I guess we had to wait til June in 1800.

I have a 580 page book by Bela Hubbard called "memorials of a half century". It literally details everything (weather, trees, etc) around Detroit from the 1830s-1880s. It's a fascinating read. There were many open winters back then btw. I'd say winters of the early 19th century were colder and drier overall. 

The Ohio Weather Review reported phenological data ever year for many years around 1900. In northern Ohio, at that time, the first leaf did not appear on soft maple trees until May 1 to May 10, with elm and birch occurring in mid to late May. Not sure about the latter two species, but I know the first leaf on soft maple species probably averages mid April now. Maybe late April to May 1 in a particularly cold spring. So on average, I'd say it's moved up 2-3 weeks in a little over 100 years. And in 2012, there were leaves in March in Toledo. A full six weeks earlier.

I don't know how this can be disputed. Springtime temperatures have warmed nearly 5 degrees in Cleveland comparing the 1871-1900 mean [45.98F] to the 2010-2022 mean [50.62F], and more than 4 degrees at Detroit when comparing the 1874-1900 mean [45.50F] to the 2010-2022 mean [49.61F].

These are massive changes. The 1871-1900 (1874-1900 at DTW) means are comparable to the 2010-2022 means at Traverse City, MI [46.62F] and Green Bay, Wisconsin [44.80F], meaning a late 19th century spring in Cleveland and Detroit saw temperatures that are only slightly warmer than what is now a typical Green Bay spring, and about a degree cooler than modern springs in Traverse City, in northern Michigan.

You may not like the data but that's what the data shows. You're welcome to perform your own analysis on the data. And this is all on topic - this is a banter thread, observations are about spring, and relevant to the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley weather discussion.

[rainsucks]

I’m growing concerned we may not see any 70s until possibly May. For a while, I was coping hard, but now I can truly see how awful this pattern is. And it’s only going to get worse with relentless high-latitude blocking. At this point, i’m just sad. I want some actual good spring weather so I can actually ENJOY being outdoors without freezing my ass off or dealing with the bullshit of lingering wintry weather. I’m not sure how much longer I can take of this garbage, really…

[rainsucks]

snow in the middle of the day on April 12!!! CAN’T WAIT 

[michsnowfreak]

11 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

The Ohio Weather Review reported phenological data ever year for many years around 1900. In northern Ohio, at that time, the first leaf did not appear on soft maple trees until May 1 to May 10, with elm and birch occurring in mid to late May. Not sure about the latter two species, but I know the first leaf on soft maple species probably averages mid April now. Maybe late April to May 1 in a particularly cold spring. So on average, I'd say it's moved up 2-3 weeks in a little over 100 years. And in 2012, there were leaves in March in Toledo. A full six weeks earlier.

I don't know how this can be disputed. Springtime temperatures have warmed nearly 5 degrees in Cleveland comparing the 1871-1900 mean [45.98F] to the 2010-2022 mean [50.62F], and more than 4 degrees at Detroit when comparing the 1874-1900 mean [45.50F] to the 2010-2022 mean [49.61F].

These are massive changes. The 1871-1900 (1874-1900 at DTW) means are comparable to the 2010-2022 means at Traverse City, MI [46.62F] and Green Bay, Wisconsin [44.80F], meaning a late 19th century spring in Cleveland and Detroit saw temperatures that are only slightly warmer than what is now a typical Green Bay spring, and about a degree cooler than modern springs in Traverse City, in northern Michigan.

You may not like the data but that's what the data shows. You're welcome to perform your own analysis on the data. And this is all on topic - this is a banter thread, observations are about spring, and relevant to the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley weather discussion.

My question was partially in jest. It was a retort to your response to my commenting how many late green ups we have had lately by talking about the early 1800s. But you still didnt explain why every graph you will ever see showing how much a winter has warmed will start since 1970. So I will. Its because starting a regression line in the coldest-on-record 1970s will automatically give you a MUCH more unrealistic warming curve than the longterm average.

 

I have no issue with stats, in fact I welcome them. I am pretty much the climate stat king for Detroit, so if cherry picking is your style be prepared that it can and will go two ways. From a winter perspective (snowfall/snow depth) there is so much I could cherry pick that obliterated snow records, but usually at minimum a 30-year sampling is important imo, not a 12-year one (2010-22). just my opinion. I am VERY aware of what has and what has not changed in our climate. The 21st century is so far warmer, wetter, and snowier than it was in the 19th & 20th centuries. But comparing 1872-1900 to 2010-22 is as cherry picking as they come. Its not even close to the same number of years. March is one of the most warmed months since the 1870s, definitely true. So I suppose that's why we are looking at only the last 12 years compared to the earliest years of data (and just ignoring the 110 years in between lol). Now January, on the other hand, has warmed very little since the late 1800s, so that's why we usually draw those comparisons to the 1970.

 

Are you in Ohio btw?

 

The 2012 spring greenup was a record year, much like 1945, and extremely unusual. No way does the average first leaf on soft maple come in mid-April in SE MI. Buds yes but leaves in mid-April are early. Every Fall and Spring are different, though subtle averages can be estimated.

Temp averages by season/decade at Detroit.

AVG F WINTER – SPRING – SUMMER - FALL
1870s – 25.2 – 44.5 – 69.5 – 50.5 *incomplete decade*
1880s – 27.6 – 45.8 – 69.6 – 51.8
1890s – 26.5 – 45.8 – 70.4 – 51.3
1900s – 24.9 – 45.9 – 69.8 – 52.2
1910s – 25.5 – 46.2 – 70.3 – 52.0
1920s – 25.8 – 46.7 – 70.1 – 52.7
1930s – 28.3 – 46.5 – 72.3 – 52.7
1940s – 27.0 – 47.0 – 71.4 – 53.1
1950s – 28.6 – 47.0 – 71.6 – 52.7
1960s – 26.2 – 47.0 – 70.5 – 53.1
1970s – 24.8 – 47.2 – 70.2 – 51.6
1980s – 25.9 – 47.5 – 70.7 – 51.2
1990s – 29.2 – 48.3 – 71.6 – 52.4
2000s – 27.7 – 48.8 – 71.7 – 53.5
2010s – 28.2 – 49.6 – 73.2 – 53.8

[Cary67]

Good to be back from Florida

[A-L-E-K]

DAB

[cyclone77]

Boy I picked a heck of a time to vacation away from the QCA lol.  Hopefully get some consolation storms down here but always a bit unnerving being away from your home during a major severe setup.

[Chicago916]

I know weather models were discussed a couple weeks back. Looks like the RRFS model has been added to Pivotal Weather, so should be interesting to see how well it does with the next couple of severe weather events. And just checked out it's 0z run, this won't be useful at all haha 

[IWXwx]

9 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Boy I picked a heck of a time to vacation away from the QCA lol.  Hopefully get some consolation storms down here but always a bit unnerving being away from your home during a major severe setup.

I forgot that you are on vacation. I was looking forward to videos and pics from ground zero from you. Will you be back home by Tuesday?

[Lightning]

15 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Boy I picked a heck of a time to vacation away from the QCA lol.  Hopefully get some consolation storms down here but always a bit unnerving being away from your home during a major severe setup.

Happens to me all the time.  Best storms seem to hit MBY when I am on vacation.  

Like you say it can be unnerving when something major is happening at you house and all you can look at really is radar.   I ended up taking all the trees near my house out so I didn't have to be concern about a tree falling on my house when gone.

[mnchaserguy]

The Twin Cities have been upgraded to a blizzard warning which is quite rare for the metro. 6-10” of snow and wind gusts to 50 mph. 1-2” per hour rates tonight. The cold side of this storm is no joke either.


.

[cyclone77]

9 hours ago, IWXwx said:

I forgot that you are on vacation. I was looking forward to videos and pics from ground zero from you. Will you be back home by Tuesday?

Yeah we come back tomorrow.  At least it's been a fun trip lol.

Saw some nice thunderheads earlier from stuff blowing up all over.  It sort of wussed out though.  Extremely windy now with drier air advecting in.

[Torchageddon]

5 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

I’ve worked in emergency services long enough to know that when you roll up to multiple bystanders saying, “stay with me”, it’s not going to be a good scene. 

Is that indicative that they are in shock?

[Chicago916]

Would be great if the RRFS comes back online soon in time for the upcoming severe event. Seems to be offline still since Friday 

[madwx]

1 hour ago, Chicago916 said:

Would be great if the RRFS comes back online soon in time for the upcoming severe event. Seems to be offline still since Friday 

They are only turning it on for severe events so I would assume it will run again at 0Z tonight or 12Z tomorrow.

[DaveNay]

How to explain the difference between a watch and a warning.

[cyclone77]

25 minutes ago, DaveNay said:

How to explain the difference between a watch and a warning.

And then show toilet for taco emergency