Multi-Month specific forecasting- amazing breakthrough or fraud

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Sounds like a fraud to me, but I'm not an atmospheric scientist. 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/inside-the-controversial-claim-rocking-the-weather-world/ar-AA18EebC

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Quote

However, Lezak believes that the LRC’s results speak for themselves. One prediction he’s already made this year is that there is a 64 percent chance of a tropical storm or hurricane hitting between Miami Beach and Daytona Beach around the second week of September. Lilja said he’s seen broadcast meteorologists make these kinds of predictions on air, citing the LRC. But when he goes to look at the dates they list, he’s struck by an observation that makes the model seem a lot less clairvoyant: Early September is the peak of hurricane season.

“That’s not a forecast; that’s an inevitability,” Lilja said.

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Sounds like a fraud to me, but I'm not an atmospheric scientist. 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/inside-the-controversial-claim-rocking-the-weather-world/ar-AA18EebC

"Proprietary methodology" says it all. As such, it is not rigorously vetted. Without such vetting, it's difficult to know if it has much validity e.g., it's any better than climatology at the timeframes involved.

[bdgwx]

A group of us in a local St. Louis weather forum tried his method a decade ago. It doesn't work...like at all. In fact, if I remember correctly climatology had equal or better skill than the LRC method. That means if scoring by anomaly correlation coefficient it would get a near 0 score. Contrast this with a score of 0.6 which is said to be on the threshold of "useful".