cheese007 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 SPC put out a 15% contour for Day 4/Thursday focused on the Ark/La/Tex and Texoma into DFW, OKC, and Tulsa metros Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 GFS shows a cap that never really breaks. There are Thursday afternoon/evening storms, especially E Texas and N. Louisiana, but there is only skinny CAPE above the weak cap ahead of them. Front maybe stalling somewhere near I-10 and PWs around 1.6, rain Thursday-Friday might be bigger issue. Edit to add- if instability were higher in N. Louisiana, which could happen, dynamics are there for sig severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 23 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: GFS shows a cap that never really breaks. There are Thursday afternoon/evening storms, especially E Texas and N. Louisiana, but there is only skinny CAPE above the weak cap ahead of them. Front maybe stalling somewhere near I-10 and PWs around 1.6, rain Thursday-Friday might be bigger issue. Edit to add- if instability were higher in N. Louisiana, which could happen, dynamics are there for sig severe. I could see this outlook possibly upgrading to at least enhanced by Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 12 minutes ago, weatherextreme said: I could see this outlook possibly upgrading to at least enhanced by Thursday. I don't have access to Euro instability, but judging from TWC discussion about Thursday, that model probably does have instability. As mentioned, N. Louisiana has the dynamics per GFS if only instability was higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 GFS is still meh with low CAPE and high CINH, but TWC again, from discussion, suggests Euro has enough instability for severe. SPC has a Day 3 slight risk. Decent enough dynamics. I can see Euro bulk shear on PIVOTAL, 50 knot plus bulk shear. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 SPC adds an enhanced risk area for NC/NE TX and extreme SE OK. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 Looks interesting. Definitely jealous! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 Thinking we could possibly see a hatched for tornadoes tomorrow. From the SPC Farther south along the front into central/eastern TX, the front will continue to push rapidly south overnight, with increasing storm coverage. Ample instability will interact with the front, with parallel deep-layer shear vectors and weakening winds in the low levels. Hail appears to be the main threat as the storms become undercut by the cold air, but a narrow zone of damaging wind potential could materialize should storms propagate fast enough to keep up with the front. The cells over southern OK and North TX prior to 00Z in particularly may produce damaging hail and a tornado or two before the front undercuts the activity. Any cells or bows that can propagate with a strong eastward component may reside along the boundary longer, enhancing both severe wind and tornado threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 6 minutes ago, weatherextreme said: Thinking we could possibly see a hatched for tornadoes tomorrow. From the SPC Farther south along the front into central/eastern TX, the front will continue to push rapidly south overnight, with increasing storm coverage. Ample instability will interact with the front, with parallel deep-layer shear vectors and weakening winds in the low levels. Hail appears to be the main threat as the storms become undercut by the cold air, but a narrow zone of damaging wind potential could materialize should storms propagate fast enough to keep up with the front. The cells over southern OK and North TX prior to 00Z in particularly may produce damaging hail and a tornado or two before the front undercuts the activity. Any cells or bows that can propagate with a strong eastward component may reside along the boundary longer, enhancing both severe wind and tornado threat. Looking at the NAM, I don't see a lot of stronger tornadoes, myself. Instability just isn't great. I will note SigTors over 2 per the model in North Texas, the dynamics are good. 1 km helicity numbers near 300 m^2/s^2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 Huh? Instability is one the strengths with this setup especially closer to the Red River unless you're only looking at the GFS. A lot of CAPE concentrated in the lowest 6 km, which should yield some strong updrafts assuming initiation does take place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 16, 2023 Author Share Posted March 16, 2023 10% tor probs added in latest outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 If I were chasing today I'd be just south of Lawton, OK and follow storms east on the north side of the Red River. Denton, TX wouldn't be a bad place to start either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 16, 2023 Author Share Posted March 16, 2023 Tor watch out until 8, 50-20 Tor Probs, 60-20 wind, and 60-60 hail https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0068.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 15 hours ago, andyhb said: Huh? Instability is one the strengths with this setup especially closer to the Red River unless you're only looking at the GFS. A lot of CAPE concentrated in the lowest 6 km, which should yield some strong updrafts assuming initiation does take place. Model instability forecasts for today have increased substantially in the last 36-48 hours of model runs, including the NAM. 2 to 3K J/Kg CAPE would obviously support severe. I knew watching TWC and reading SPC outlooks Euro instability had to be much higher than GFS instability but I'm not paying for any PPV models at the moment. OT- HGX radar is interesting, a few small heavy elevated cells moving near W to E passing directly over streamer showers moving near N to S. Much heavier echos with the elevated storms. Not sure I've seen that before. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=HGX-N0B-0-24-100-usa-rad We are at the edge of the Slight. I can upload weather.gov GIF loop but it doesn't show the way it does on DuPage page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 Cell moving into Palo Pinto county getting an interesting look. Edit to add, nobody uses VIL for hail anymore, but over 75 w/ echo top over 42k has to be dropping some major hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 Tornado probabilities back down to 5% at the 20Z outlook. Frontal undercutting expected to remain a hindrance. However the cell near Mineral Wells, TX is discrete, appears to be deviating a little to the right of other storms and is on a track to threaten the DFW metro, with significant large hail at the very least.https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0293.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 16, 2023 Author Share Posted March 16, 2023 Tennis ball size hail on that Mineral Wells storm. On track to go right over both Fort Worth and Dallas downtown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 Seems like March goes hand in hand with major DFW hailstorms like it does with college hoops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 SPC issued a MCD for the discrete HP sup headed for DFW https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0294.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 16, 2023 Author Share Posted March 16, 2023 Tor warning for Tarrant county 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 16, 2023 Author Share Posted March 16, 2023 wall cloud on Michael Beard's stream on livestormchasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 16, 2023 Author Share Posted March 16, 2023 NWS confirmed tor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 Texas Storm Chasers YouTube using DFW terminal radar picking up a new hook echo with a velocity couplet in Irving which could be headed toward Dallas proper. Just warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 16, 2023 Author Share Posted March 16, 2023 Tor warning for Dallas. Close to October 20, 2019 path Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Texas Storm Chasers YouTube using DFW terminal radar picking up a new hook echo with a velocity couplet in Irving which could be headed toward Dallas proper. Just warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 16, 2023 Author Share Posted March 16, 2023 great shot on wfaa now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 Probably cycling again, which I think means it isn't on the ground, because the tornado would be in Dallas and Reed Timmer was on some slow moving highways until a minute ago near downtown. Timmer is heading to 45 to head South towards Waxahatchie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 19 minutes ago, cheese007 said: Tor warning for Dallas. Close to October 20, 2019 path I just enjoyed that from Love Field. Sirens were blaring. Airline employees took shelter. Couplet moved right overhead. Got a nice view outside facing west. Nice little storm but rain wrapped and no sign of touchdown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 I leave town and Dallas gets slammed. Seems about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 Won't surprise me if tornado damage may be observed in Garland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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