2023 Spring Flooding Thread

[Geoboy645]

We are in store for potentially a major flooding event this spring along the main-stem rivers. The constant snowfalls in the Northwoods and Minnesota have created a near record snowpack across much of that region. Several stations are very close to breaking their monthly snow depth records or even their all time snow depth records. This snowpack also has an incredible amount of SWE within the pack. Most of the region is within the 90th percentile for SWE, with a widespread 4-7" throughout the region. These factors coupled with a well above average start to the year for precip to the south have set the stage for a potential major flooding event sometime within the next month along most of the main stem rivers within the Midwest. 

[Geoboy645]

 

Some figures to help illustrate the amount of snow within these basins.

[SolidIcewx]

It would not surprise me to see this on the upper Mississippi River basis and all the local rivers that feed into it. The snowpack is there and still a month or more of snow. If we end up having a wet stormy spring it definitely concerns me for major flooding. Ground is getting more saturated by the day. Back in 2019 I went to Winfield MO to volunteer and sandbag because I have family not far from there. Crazy how powerful that river is and seeing the water lines in Alton IL of the 93 flood and seeing the 2019 one only a couple feet away was chilling. I hope for a gradual warm up into spring 

[RogueWaves]

1 minute ago, SolidIcewx said:

It would not surprise me to see this on the upper Mississippi River basis and all the local rivers that feed into it. The snowpack is there and still a month or more of snow. If we end up having a wet stormy spring it definitely concerns me for major flooding. Ground is getting more saturated by the day. Back in 2019 I went to Winfield MO to volunteer and sandbag because I have family not far from there. Crazy how powerful that river is and seeing the water lines in Alton IL of the 93 flood and seeing the 2019 one only a couple feet away was chilling. I hope for a gradual warm up into spring 

All depends on the spring. If it flips hard - trouble. 2014 presented historic SPWE across SMI and we had a slow transition into the warm season and zero hydro issues. Contrast that with 2018's hard flip with heavy rains just as we peaked in depth and  that was a record flood along the Kzoo river basin.

[Geoboy645]

1 hour ago, RogueWaves said:

All depends on the spring. If it flips hard - trouble. 2014 presented historic SPWE across SMI and we had a slow transition into the warm season and zero hydro issues. Contrast that with 2018's hard flip with heavy rains just as we peaked in depth and  that was a record flood along the Kzoo river basin.

This is where this cold pattern is really hurting us right now. The longer we stay cold, the more snow gets dumped on the snowpack and the higher the chance of a hard flip occurs. It also increases the risk of getting a rain event on such a wet snowpack as well. 

[SolidIcewx]

1 hour ago, RogueWaves said:

All depends on the spring. If it flips hard - trouble. 2014 presented historic SPWE across SMI and we had a slow transition into the warm season and zero hydro issues. Contrast that with 2018's hard flip with heavy rains just as we peaked in depth and  that was a record flood along the Kzoo river basin.

That is true. I know our rivers and creeks over here and still running high and it’s not heavy rain season yet. I also don’t want the rouge in canton to flood again that was a mess in end of itself lol

[A-L-E-K]

hype

 

 

[Lightning]

No worries here.  I got a big 'L' right on top of MBY.  

  

[SolidIcewx]

7 hours ago, Lightning said:

No worries here.  I got a big 'L' right on top of MBY.  

  

L for Livingston county lol. I hope for just average rain but a little dryness could help with the skeeters later in the spring 

[Geoboy645]

With the increased chances for warmth and rain this week for more northern areas, the flood risk probably starts to rise this week. We could have a decently heavy rain chance on Thursday/Friday up here, on top of whatever remains of the snowpack from this last weekend and with river levels quite high. Could get some rain on the still quite large snowpack up north as well. The extended looks very stormy and wet at least somewhere in the subforum, and we definitely have an increased chance of flooding across the entire subforum over the next two weeks. 

[frostfern]

Rainfall over the next 10 days could be concerning with more than one strong system potentially tracking over the same area with multiple rounds of convection and stratiform precip as well.  Even with snowpack long gone, pre-leaf-out rains will saturate the soil pretty quick.  Flash flooding seems pretty much guaranteed some places.

[Geoboy645]

ARX has already put out flood watches for the usual spots, the Black at Black River Falls and Galesburg, and the Yellow at Necedah. Tomorrow's storm is going to definitely increase the flood threat. We should be getting at least 1.5 to 2" QPF across most of the Northwoods. While most of that will be snow (again) up there, areas to the south such as the Fox Valley should be mostly rain until Friday night. Some areas around Rhinelander could reach another foot of snow. What this does however is dramatically increase the snowpack for next Tuesday's storm. Which as of rn, is modeled to be warmer and have a farther north heavy rain threat. On top of the snowpack. Next Tuesday and onward could potentially be a significant flood threat because of this, especially with streams running high after tomorrow. 

[MNstorms]

Thankfully this spring had the slowest snow melt I've ever seen with the 30-40F highs all month. Rivers have already peaked. 1-3'' in next couple days could raise them again but it may be too late for flooding.

[Geoboy645]

On 3/31/2023 at 1:18 AM, MNstorms said:

Thankfully this spring had the slowest snow melt I've ever seen with the 30-40F highs all month. Rivers have already peaked. 1-3'' in next couple days could raise them again but it may be too late for flooding.

I don't agree with that we are already almost done at all. In fact, I argue we have barely started. While yes there has been some snowmelt to the south of MSP and in the urban area, outside of there the snowpack has been hardly touched at all. Even before this last storm there was still 18"+ of snow in the Northwoods, and they just got another foot+ on top of it. Hayward is still at 30"+ of snowpack, which is just insane considering how late it is in the year. And the SWE is still at record high levels for this time of year. After Tuesday's storm, we should be done for at least the next few days with storms, and it should warm up to the 40s and 50s. The melt will start in ernest then. And this snowpack is going to take a while to melt, as it is so wet and icy. 

[Geoboy645]

[Geoboy645]

Quite a few flood warnings out at this point across Wisconsin. Nothing super major, and pretty much all the usual spots. But still, flood warnings with a major warm wave next week to melt the snowpack. I'm not going to be shocked if we start getting some flood-related headlines next week because of that. 

[SolidIcewx]

Huron river by were I’m working atm in southern Wayne county Michigan is quite a bit swollen. River Raisin is back up a lot again I heard from a co worker down in Monroe. Seen two overflowing retention ponds by me spilling into a nearby creek. Ground is super saturated. Every woodlot and backyards I’m in for work have standing water or it’s so muddy to the point I feel like I’m walking thru the trench’s of war. Still early in the spring and as we go on the higher chances of training events with heavy rain 

[frostfern]

The river here is the highest it's been since late April 2013.  Thankfully it will have time to work its way down during the dry period coming up.  A training MCS later in the month could bring the high water right back though.  A 4-5" convective rain event on top of already wet conditions is what put things over the top in 2013.

[frostfern]

30 day precip here is now around 8.0".  Definitely excessive for a pre-leafout month.  Wish some if this moisture could be saved for July when its almost always drying out around here.

[Geoboy645]

Well the flood has already started in earnest across the Upper Midwest. Every major river has at least 2 or 3 gauges either at or predicted to reach flood stage. Mostly minor flooding, although there are some notable exceptions. The Wisconsin at Portage, WI is predicted to be at moderate flood stage all week long. While the St Croix at Stillwater is forecasted to reach major flood stage, and as of right now a #7 all time crest and the highest since 2001. The Mississippi at Wabasha is also predicted to reach moderate flood stage, with additional rises possible thereafter. This will be an evolving situation all week long, although thankfully we have like no precip chances for a little while yet so that is going to help.

[Geoboy645]

There are over 30 different flood warnings and watches out right now across WI, MN, and the UP. Several rivers including the Mississippi are at or forecasted to be at moderate flood stage. While this isn't quite hitting the worst-case scenario for this melt, still a major flood for the Mississippi basin. Will be interesting to see how much, if any, effect the storm later this weekend will affect the rivers.

[CheeselandSkies]

56 minutes ago, Geoboy645 said:

There are over 30 different flood warnings and watches out right now across WI, MN, and the UP. Several rivers including the Mississippi are at or forecasted to be at moderate flood stage. While this isn't quite hitting the worst-case scenario for this melt, still a major flood for the Mississippi basin. Will be interesting to see how much, if any, effect the storm later this weekend will affect the rivers.

Yeah, we got lucky in that the active storm pattern pretty much shut down after the 4/4-4/5 event. In 2008 we had a big melt followed by relentless thunderstorm (including training MCS) activity for about three weeks straight from late May into June.

[SolidIcewx]

7 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Yeah, we got lucky in that the active storm pattern pretty much shut down after the 4/4-4/5 event. In 2008 we had a big melt followed by relentless thunderstorm (including training MCS) activity for about three weeks straight from late May into June.

Yeah that’s the thing we got a whole lotta spring left still. Pattern can go to stormy once we roll into may. 2008 definitely saw a lot of rain end of spring like you said

[Geoboy645]

Well I spoke too soon about escaping major flooding along the Mississippi. The precip from this weekend has now been factored into the forecasts and every gauge from Brooklyn Park to La Crosse sans Alma are forecasted to be at Major or high Moderate flood stage within the next week. Some of them like Hastings are starting to get close to the 2001 crests. Further east, the main deformation band should get up to 2" of precip either rain or snow which is just going to do wonders to the already high tributaries. Plus whatever snow that does fall will pretty much immediately start melting once the storm is over so that's great. We also got precip chances next week again which could do the same thing all over again.

[Geoboy645]

And now we have forecasted moderate flood stage as far south as Davenport. Out of the 133 gauges that have current forecasts by the NCRFC in their coverage area. 57(!) of them are forecasted to be at moderate or major flood stage within the next week. And that number is probably going to continue going up with the wet pattern forecasted for this week and next weekend. We really went from a dodged bullet to an oh **** moment in like the last 36 hours. This is going to be a very long 2-3 weeks at least for the Mississippi River basin. Oh and btw this is exactly how 93 started, a large snowmelt flood that just kept getting added on because it wouldn't stop raining for three months. Now not saying that that's going to happen here obviously, but the parallels are troubling. 

[kevlon62]

Oh and btw this is exactly how 93 started, a large snowmelt flood that just kept getting added on because it wouldn't stop raining for three months. Now not saying that that's going to happen here obviously, but the parallels are troubling. 

I remember we did a dinner cruise out of Dubuque high water style that year.

The chronological benchmark though was hearing Paxson for three to KO PHX on the station wagon ride home later that night. The best!

[Geoboy645]

And the crests continue to go up and up on the Mississippi. ARX is now expecting at least April 2019 level crests along its entire stretch of the river, with some gauges nearing 2001 levels. For instance, McGregor IA which is just across the river from Prairie Du Chien is expected to reach a top 3 crest on record. Only behind 1965 and 2001. La Crosse is forecasted for a top 5 crest behind those years and 1952 and 1969. Governor Evers has declared a state of emergency already for the flooding. And the rain the next two days, which could be as much as 2 inches in spots including the areas that just got 10"+ of snow two days ago, is going to make things even worse. Especially south of the Black River. It's not just up there though. Dubuque is forecasted at least to 22ft, with that number almost certainly increasing as the crest becomes in view of the forecast period. And even as far as south as Davenport, which is already forecasted at 18.2 ft, which is major flooding. And that is with the crest potentially being 10 days out yet and a continued wet pattern for the forseeable future. 2023 is already shaping up to be a renowned flooding year on the Mississippi, and we've barely started this.

P.S: I know that I have been basically the only one posting anything in this thread, but I really don't care. This is too major of a event to be not talked about. If a random snowstorm in January can get incessantly talked about for days and days, this should be too. 

[CheeselandSkies]

5 hours ago, Geoboy645 said:

And the crests continue to go up and up on the Mississippi. ARX is now expecting at least April 2019 level crests along its entire stretch of the river, with some gauges nearing 2001 levels. For instance, McGregor IA which is just across the river from Prairie Du Chien is expected to reach a top 3 crest on record. Only behind 1965 and 2001. La Crosse is forecasted for a top 5 crest behind those years and 1952 and 1969. Governor Evers has declared a state of emergency already for the flooding. And the rain the next two days, which could be as much as 2 inches in spots including the areas that just got 10"+ of snow two days ago, is going to make things even worse. Especially south of the Black River. It's not just up there though. Dubuque is forecasted at least to 22ft, with that number almost certainly increasing as the crest becomes in view of the forecast period. And even as far as south as Davenport, which is already forecasted at 18.2 ft, which is major flooding. And that is with the crest potentially being 10 days out yet and a continued wet pattern for the forseeable future. 2023 is already shaping up to be a renowned flooding year on the Mississippi, and we've barely started this.

P.S: I know that I have been basically the only one posting anything in this thread, but I really don't care. This is too major of a event to be not talked about. If a random snowstorm in January can get incessantly talked about for days and days, this should be too. 

Surprising to me that the leaders at PdC are 1965 and 2001, and La Crosse those years and 1952/69. In my mind 1993 and 2008 are the benchmarks of major river flooding in the upper Midwest, particularly the Mississippi.

[SolidIcewx]

5 hours ago, Geoboy645 said:

And the crests continue to go up and up on the Mississippi. ARX is now expecting at least April 2019 level crests along its entire stretch of the river, with some gauges nearing 2001 levels. For instance, McGregor IA which is just across the river from Prairie Du Chien is expected to reach a top 3 crest on record. Only behind 1965 and 2001. La Crosse is forecasted for a top 5 crest behind those years and 1952 and 1969. Governor Evers has declared a state of emergency already for the flooding. And the rain the next two days, which could be as much as 2 inches in spots including the areas that just got 10"+ of snow two days ago, is going to make things even worse. Especially south of the Black River. It's not just up there though. Dubuque is forecasted at least to 22ft, with that number almost certainly increasing as the crest becomes in view of the forecast period. And even as far as south as Davenport, which is already forecasted at 18.2 ft, which is major flooding. And that is with the crest potentially being 10 days out yet and a continued wet pattern for the forseeable future. 2023 is already shaping up to be a renowned flooding year on the Mississippi, and we've barely started this.

P.S: I know that I have been basically the only one posting anything in this thread, but I really don't care. This is too major of a event to be not talked about. If a random snowstorm in January can get incessantly talked about for days and days, this should be too. 

All I gotta say is that river is scary when she’s mad. I remember being down in Missouri helping family then volunteered to help sandbag in the Winfield area. The floods of 2019 was epic. Went to Alton also and seen the water line not far from the 93 season. It’s definitely shaping up to be a significant season. I wonder if the lower Mississippi will have issues as well. I know when the mighty miss gets angry I can’t help to wonder about the Old River Control Structure down in Louisiana holding the Mississippi back from changing course still 

[IWXwx]

On 4/18/2023 at 11:49 PM, Geoboy645 said:

And the crests continue to go up and up on the Mississippi. ARX is now expecting at least April 2019 level crests along its entire stretch of the river, with some gauges nearing 2001 levels. For instance, McGregor IA which is just across the river from Prairie Du Chien is expected to reach a top 3 crest on record. Only behind 1965 and 2001. La Crosse is forecasted for a top 5 crest behind those years and 1952 and 1969. Governor Evers has declared a state of emergency already for the flooding. And the rain the next two days, which could be as much as 2 inches in spots including the areas that just got 10"+ of snow two days ago, is going to make things even worse. Especially south of the Black River. It's not just up there though. Dubuque is forecasted at least to 22ft, with that number almost certainly increasing as the crest becomes in view of the forecast period. And even as far as south as Davenport, which is already forecasted at 18.2 ft, which is major flooding. And that is with the crest potentially being 10 days out yet and a continued wet pattern for the forseeable future. 2023 is already shaping up to be a renowned flooding year on the Mississippi, and we've barely started this.

P.S: I know that I have been basically the only one posting anything in this thread, but I really don't care. This is too major of a event to be not talked about. If a random snowstorm in January can get incessantly talked about for days and days, this should be too. 

That's okay if you are the only one posting about this. Even though,the flooding will be destructive, it is fascinating to read about. Please continue to update.