Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,600
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Last Hurrah Obs Thread: 3/13-15/23


WxWatcher007
 Share

Recommended Posts

Is a 10:1 clown really bad (within a realistic time frame, not a week or hour 384), it gives a 'quick look' at what the model thinks will fall as snow, and can be easily adjusted for a different ratio?  Just a little more work on a 1 hour or three hour update to trim off QPF when it might be snowing but not sticking.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

People trash a model if snowfall doesn't produce in their back yard. If someone says 'x' model sucks, I want them to cite an evaluation (post-hoc or operational) of meteorological forcing fields related to heat and moisture both at the surface and aloft. Those fields contributes significantly to the accuracy of NWP... Not snowfall at one location (which is typically calculated from a private website, excluding a couple NWP models).

If someone were to run an evaluation of this event, you'll likely find that temperature performed well (sfc + aloft), moisture performed okay (Td or specific humidity at the sfc and aloft), and wind speed performed okay (directional and magnitudinal at the sfc and aloft - worse as you approach the surface). All NWP models struggle with QPF (for a number of reasons) so it's not solely used to determine a model's overall performance. Through my experience, it usually performs reasonable as a bulk statistic.

IMO, ensembles should always be used for QPF forecasting. Diagnostic models should be used to determine trends.

Thanks for this post. It definitely irks me when people trash a model without data to back it up. Admittedly I wish that data was easier to find…I’ve had this bookmarked for a while, and I think CSU used to have a good page… https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/modeldiag.html#verification 

Seems like it didn’t matter how many times with this event pro mets told everyone to toss the clown maps in the trash, people were still treating them like the gospel.

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

IMO, the snowfall maps have been a detriment to the field. These things get tossed around left and right and literally all they do is create unrealistic expectations and create hype for the public. There is nothing worse then seeing 384-HR snow maps being thrown around all over social media or snow maps for a "D10 threat". There is absolutely ZERO reason. 

When an event happens the event is then measured solely on how the f****** snow maps "performed". WHO GIVES A SHIT HOW THE HELL THEY PERFORMED. 

Speaking of QPF though, I think models have come along way with QPF forecasting. But I think mesos have really helped with this. 

I totally agree with this.

QPF has definitely improved over the past several decades. I just wish people would stop using mesos past 1pbl cycle. Thereafter, their reliability diminishes. It's the equivalent of using the GFS past day 7.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, Massplow said:

What are the chances we get some accumulation on asphalt in the Sharon/Mansfield/dedham areas. Have a full crew of plow drivers and shovelers and dont know what to tell them at this point 

Brutal. Sorry to hear this. Nothing worst then getting everything ready and it not come. Boston weather people going to hear it 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Hoth said:

Raining here lol. This fucking winter can't die soon enough.

Rain with wet snow flakes mixed in here and there. 37.

I agree, in terms of frustration and wasted potential its the king of all rats. In terms of snowfall im doing ever so slightly better than 01-02 with that metric. But subjectively, its the worst. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...