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Last Hurrah Obs Thread: 3/13-15/23


WxWatcher007
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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Man I hope your’re right . Radar just will not fill in . Dim sun every now and again and wet flakes. I’m of the mindset the nam was right with the slot never filling here 

Looks like theres some echoes near or over you now.

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6 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

yea it's been wrong. every run after that was also snowier around boston. never sniffed out the patchy precip and extent of the dryslot. 

 

6 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

It was mostly right that run but that’s because it showed a low amount of snow EMA. 
You know damn well now that it shows 6”+ over the same area it will be wrong. Winter 22-23

15z and 16z images below for 21z show 2-3” max - again with 10:1 ratios and temps around 34/35, it was obvious to toss the clown map.

Sucks you guys are getting screwed down there but listen to the pros. BOX put out 4-6 this morning and I expect that to verify most likely on the low end. 

ADFC01DD-89B2-4B65-8FB2-0F2FA6E4CFAC.png

3AEC329C-FEF3-4537-9CE3-B23CA5580778.png

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I thought at the least this would be one of the inumerable times I'd be on the rainy side of a nor'easter. On the outside looking in.

This just doesn't really feel like one though. Particularly the winds. Even right at the bay... 15 mph, not even gusting to 30. Really unremarkable. 

I see winds are increasing, but still. 

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11 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ryan posted a link 29” all time Massachusetts state 24 hour record! Already multiple 30”+ reports 

Not sure that's actually a state record. Depends upon how far back he compares. 30 years, 60, 90? '78 had that in several places in less that 24 hours and that was a 30 hour storm.. April Fools Days storm of 1997 had a few of those. that was a 24-Hour storm and of course Blizzard of January 2005, 24-Hour storm. So again, not sure what Ryan is looking at.

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Nasty band just over the border in NY. 

That band curves into Long Island, where ISP is 33F and SN+ and NYC forum posters even on the S. Shore are reporting snow accumulating on grass.  Far from the low, which seems to be an sign for 1-3 inch optimism even at BOS as low gets closer and sun angle decreases towards evening.

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3 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said:

 

15z and 16z images below for 21z show 2-3” max - again with 10:1 ratios and temps around 34/35, it was obvious to toss the clown map.

Sucks you guys are getting screwed down there but listen to the pros. BOX put out 4-6 this morning and I expect that to verify most likely on the low end. 

ADFC01DD-89B2-4B65-8FB2-0F2FA6E4CFAC.png

3AEC329C-FEF3-4537-9CE3-B23CA5580778.png

BOX put out 6-8" for my hood and I don't think I'll hit 3". Just didn't go as modeled in terms of rates for this area

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1 minute ago, Greg said:

Not sure that's actually a state record. Depends upon how far back he compares. 30 years, 60, 90? '78 had that in several places in less that 24 hours. April Fools Days storm of 1997 had a few of those. that was a 24-Hour storm and of course Blizzard of January 2005. So again, not sure what Ryan is looking at.

I shared the link it’s from 97

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9 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Do you know what the difference is between Cobb 5 and Cobb 11? I never really understood that. And which one do you use in bufkit?

They also have "Max Temp in Profile" which sounds similar to Kuchera or essentially is the Kuchera method? I know Kuchera uses a formula based on t-max in profile 

I believe the only difference the two is just the Cobb 11 is an updated version to Cobb 5. I forget off hand what the difference is, the Cobb 11 uses something slightly different. 

Cobb method is probably the best method out there, unlike the Kuchera or the 10:1 maps, the method takes into account many different variable, including DGZ and lift. 

Max T in profile can be good, but misleading. 

For bufkit I download all my profiles from

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/bufkit/CONUS_NAM_12.html

I'll have a list saved in bufget so you can just grab the data with one click of the button. If you change the run time to latest, you'll get the most recent data

image.png.c4adf40417c2c1c2defb308da4847675.png

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I believe the only difference the two is just the Cobb 11 is an updated version to Cobb 5. I forget off hand what the difference is, the Cobb 11 uses something slightly different. 

Cobb method is probably the best method out there, unlike the Kuchera or the 10:1 maps, the method takes into account many different variable, including DGZ and lift. 

Max T in profile can be good, but misleading. 

For bufkit I download all my profiles from

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/bufkit/CONUS_NAM_12.html

I'll have a list saved in bufget so you can just grab the data with one click of the button. If you change the run time to latest, you'll get the most recent data

image.png.c4adf40417c2c1c2defb308da4847675.png

I believe it’s two different ways of calculating lift, one from the 2005 paper and the other from 2011.

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5 minutes ago, Greg said:

Not sure that's actually a state record. Depends upon how far back he compares. 30 years, 60, 90? '78 had that in several places in less that 24 hours and that was a 30 hour storm.. April Fools Days storm of 1997 had a few of those. that was a 24-Hour storm and of course Blizzard of January 2005, 24-Hour storm. So again, not sure what Ryan is looking at.

The “record” was from April 1997 in Natick

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