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Last Hurrah Obs Thread: 3/13-15/23


WxWatcher007
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4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I've thought about that...that could really help eastern areas. I know some seemed bummed b/c the storm didn't "bomb" out as shown, but that's probably a good thing...delay the occlusion and keep the moisture inflow alive, even if it's on life support. 

Maybe a consolidation, occludes then drifts E. Net result a blossoming in returns, seems plausible.

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This morning was certainly a surprise. I mean I was originally thinking (Saturday) like 8+ inches here then kind of lowered hope once the screwzone signal became more apparent. And then it got to a point to where I had zero clue what to expect...I literally went to bed last night expecting perhaps nothing. But I woke up and was very happy. 

Temp down to 34 here. Hoping we can get this radar to light up and dump over central and eastern areas. It’s looking decent so far as 700 moves east.

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2 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said:

Has it really been that bad though? Honestly I haven’t paid a ton of attention but this is the 12z run from this morning valid 21z today showing 1-2 inches max for Boston at 10:1 which we knew to toss those ratios anyways…

 

1969B59A-6169-4A29-A49C-AE2B49502F62.png

yea it's been wrong. every run after that was also snowier around boston. never sniffed out the patchy precip and extent of the dryslot. 

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2 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said:

Has it really been that bad though? Honestly I haven’t paid a ton of attention but this is the 12z run from this morning valid 21z today showing 1-2 inches max for Boston at 10:1 which we knew to toss those ratios anyways…

 

1969B59A-6169-4A29-A49C-AE2B49502F62.png

It was mostly right that run but that’s because it showed a low amount of snow EMA. 
You know damn well now that it shows 6”+ over the same area it will be wrong. Winter 22-23

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2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Temp down to 34 here. Hoping we can get this radar to light up and dump over central and eastern areas. It’s looking decent so far as 700 moves east.

BDL/CEF down to 33 so that's good at least. Snow coming down steady here, but the growth is meh. If that improves (which it should) we should accumulate quickly here. Then we'll see how much until the bands either moves out or weakens

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7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yeah when using cobb method on bufkit, majority of the ratios were within the 6-7:1 range. This is exactly why the snow maps are garbage. I get they're useful in they can really help pin down where the gradients will be and max/min's. Maybe keep the maps but remove legends and values hahaha. 

Do you know what the difference is between Cobb 5 and Cobb 11? I never really understood that. And which one do you use in bufkit?

They also have "Max Temp in Profile" which sounds similar to Kuchera or essentially is the Kuchera method? I know Kuchera uses a formula based on t-max in profile 

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ripping and everything white quickly 32.3. It’s like getting a medal for coming in last.  Feel dirty. Maybe can get a couple 

 

Just now, weatherwiz said:

BDL/CEF down to 33 so that's good at least. Snow coming down steady here, but the growth is meh. If that improves (which it should) we should accumulate quickly here. Then we'll see how much until the bands either moves out or weakens

This is it right here, boys. Gotta produce. Temp has been ticking nicely here with the dew down to 32. 

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Check my post in the storm thread with link to visible satellite, the center has started to make its loop, past hour motion is NW by 0.5 deg lat and long, from previous hour 42N 67W to about 42.5 67.5. It is also deepening, so would not say the "bombing out" scenario is entirely dead yet. Future positions in this loop may end up just 50 to 75 miles east of BOS before it drifts back east and away from MA. This evolution will probably allow coastal and parallel inland bands to maintain positions or drift very slowly towards the coast as colder air surrounds the stacking low at all levels. Probably 5-8" snow for BOS and 10-15" additional for some places already with snow on ground. Not sure if it helps much in e CT or any part of RI, se MA but 2-4" might be feasible in some places. 

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8 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

It was mostly right that run but that’s because it showed a low amount of snow EMA. 
You know damn well now that it shows 6”+ over the same area it will be wrong. Winter 22-23

Well there’s a big difference between being wrong on accums and wrong on ptype. All accum maps are garbage really, unless we get a pure all snow event.

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