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Last Hurrah Obs Thread: 3/13-15/23


WxWatcher007
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3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

There’s still plenty of modeled lift left. There wasn’t much accumulation forecast prior to 18z (1-2” range for your area). The forecast still has 5-7” left, so you’ve really just lost the high end amount at this point.

Chris the comment in the GYX discussion about 600' being the key elevation was right on target.  My house is at 625.  We had 8" about an hour ago.  We have a 1500' driveway and it is about 525 at the bottom.  There was an inch less at the bottom.  Drove down our road towards the main road (King St.) in Boscawen and as I descended through 400' it was mostly wet slush and maybe 3".  Friends in Canterbury were at 3" and were shocked to hear we had 8.  Our trees are caked dangerously and they had no issue in their woods.  Remarkable local differences.

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1 minute ago, wxmanmitch said:

Jim Cantore has been in town. I don't know if he still is, but TWC was doing live reports from the center of town by the monument and town hall.

He has been in Housatonic with a big downed tree on car.  ~15 inches where he is.  Light-moderate with wet streets.  Power out where he is.

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12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

32° +SN

1/4SM at the RWIS now.

image.png

I have been stuck at 33.1 or 33.2 for the past couple of hours.  Finally the dim sun is gone and light snow about 3/4 vis.  Actually as I type I just ticked to 33.0F as the snow is picking up.  Radar looks good for us as everything rotates in from the east.  Interestingly the wind was really blowing this morning but has really calmed down.

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Just now, mahk_webstah said:

Chris the comment in the GYX discussion about 600' being the key elevation was right on target.  My house is at 625.  We had 8" about an hour ago.  We have a 1500' driveway and it is about 525 at the bottom.  There was an inch less at the bottom.  Drove down our road towards the main road (King St.) in Boscawen and as I descended through 400' it was mostly wet slush and maybe 3".  Friends in Canterbury were at 3" and were shocked to hear we had 8.  Our trees are caked dangerously and they had no issue in their woods.  Remarkable local differences.

There was a really strong elevation signal on guidance leading up to this. That seems like it’s mostly going to be on track.

Lower elevation is running into trouble because models struggle to really hammer ratios down. I’m probably like 5:1, and there’s no model out there that will incorporate that as part of their forecast.

Cobb can do a fair job, has PWM around 5-7:1 the rest of the event.

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

There was a really strong elevation signal on guidance leading up to this. That seems like it’s mostly going to be on track.

Lower elevation is running into trouble because models struggle to really hammer ratios down. I’m probably like 5:1, and there’s no model out there that will incorporate that as part of their forecast.

Cobb can do a fair job, has PWM around 5-7:1 the rest of the event.

we've transitioned to that fun kinda snow, with small flakes, blowing almost vertically....I guess 1-2/hour?  It is drier and this has helped some of the hardwoods shed snow but the pines are still somewhat loaded.  If we get much windier and if the intensity continues, we could get near blizzard conditions.

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

There was a really strong elevation signal on guidance leading up to this. That seems like it’s mostly going to be on track.

Lower elevation is running into trouble because models struggle to really hammer ratios down. I’m probably like 5:1, and there’s no model out there that will incorporate that as part of their forecast.

Cobb can do a fair job, has PWM around 5-7:1 the rest of the event.

Yeah when using cobb method on bufkit, majority of the ratios were within the 6-7:1 range. This is exactly why the snow maps are garbage. I get they're useful in they can really help pin down where the gradients will be and max/min's. Maybe keep the maps but remove legends and values hahaha. 

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4 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said:

HRRR gets going down there for a while later today through this evening. Willing to bet they get 4-6. 

643792D8-8171-455A-8597-F7620B873F95.png

22FF5F02-19A9-4F11-A60D-A59360B81688.png

  I want to see if eye like feature heading NW towards Central Maine actually turns SW as depicted.  https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-northeast-02-24-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

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9 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said:

HRRR gets going down there for a while later today through this evening. Willing to bet they get 4-6. 

643792D8-8171-455A-8597-F7620B873F95.png

22FF5F02-19A9-4F11-A60D-A59360B81688.png

 

7 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

it's been wrong all day in this area :/

Couldn’t get a 6 hour forecast right. How can this be trusted? 
That ain’t happening. Not this winter at least 

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Just now, ROOSTA said:

The HRRR (who's to say it's right or wrong) insistent on retrograding.
If it's even 1/2 correct, well that would indicate this is far from over.

I've thought about that...that could really help eastern areas. I know some seemed bummed b/c the storm didn't "bomb" out as shown, but that's probably a good thing...delay the occlusion and keep the moisture inflow alive, even if it's on life support. 

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There will be some accumulating snow into BOS later imho. It won’t be 6” but sun is going down when that stuff rotates down and it could be moderate to b briefly heavy. Could be a couple inches from that. 

Was thinking 1-2 here hopefully.

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23 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

ughhh I'm in a tiny sucker hole...it's like filling in all around me. It's like I'm getting an atmospheric swirly. 

It's tough here man. We lucked out early this morning. If you live here during a truly snowy winter, make sure you're stocked up on tranquilizers. You will marvel at all the different ways to get snow screwed lol.

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Just now, codfishsnowman said:

It's tough here man. We lucked out early this morning. If you live here during a truly snowy winter, make sure you're stocked up on tranquilizers. You will marvel at all the different ways to get snow screwed lol.

This morning was certainly a surprise. I mean I was originally thinking (Saturday) like 8+ inches here then kind of lowered hope once the screwzone signal became more apparent. And then it got to a point to where I had zero clue what to expect...I literally went to bed last night expecting perhaps nothing. But I woke up and was very happy. 

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12 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

it's been wrong all day in this area :/

Has it really been that bad though? Honestly I haven’t paid a ton of attention but this is the 12z run from this morning valid 21z today showing 1-2 inches max for Boston at 10:1 which we knew to toss those ratios anyways…

 

1969B59A-6169-4A29-A49C-AE2B49502F62.png

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32 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

There’s still plenty of modeled lift left. There wasn’t much accumulation forecast prior to 18z (1-2” range for your area). The forecast still has 5-7” left, so you’ve really just lost the high end amount at this point.

:D
That nice green lobe south of Fundy has some NW in its track (at present) but everything west of there seems to run WNW by W and would stay to our south.

Edit:  And we're more than 200 feet lower than the key elev, though I don't think Mile Hill at 800' has done any better so far.

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