Kitz Craver Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Beer What else is a snow starved weenie to do… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 1 minute ago, dendrite said: DIT must be ripping right now. 31.7° there Yeah it’s been a good period since about 2:00 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah it’s been a good period since about 2:00 Accumulation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Just now, Kitz Craver said: What else is a snow starved weenie to do… Beer ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 8 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said: Thanks for this post. It definitely irks me when people trash a model without data to back it up. Admittedly I wish that data was easier to find…I’ve had this bookmarked for a while, and I think CSU used to have a good page… https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/modeldiag.html#verification Seems like it didn’t matter how many times with this event pro mets told everyone to toss the clown maps in the trash, people were still treating them like the gospel. If people would look at the "total positive snow-depth change" instead of the 10:1 total snowfall maps their expectations would be more realistic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 5 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Is a 10:1 clown really bad (within a realistic time frame, not a week or hour 384), it gives a 'quick look' at what the model thinks will fall as snow, and can be easily adjusted for a different ratio? Just a little more work on a 1 hour or three hour update to trim off QPF when it might be snowing but not sticking. This is just my opinion But yes, they are really that bad. We'll use the two different methods, 10:1 and Kuchera. The Kuchera method was developed to help provide a more "accurate: assessment of ratios after all, we all know ratios can vary significantly. But (and as far as I know...this is where I could be wrong, hence the "this is just my opinion) all these products do is take a ratio and multiply it by QPF. Ultimately, snowfall production and accumulation are extremely complex and involve much more then just ratio and QPF. First off, snowfall ratios in themselves are extremely complex. They can change very rapidly during the evolution of the storm and can drastically within minutes. Degree of lift, abundance of moisture/ice crystals within the snow growth zone, thermal profile, moisture, CAA/WAA, evolution of the dynamics are all extremely critical in snowfall ratio and accumulation. Snow maps do provide value in they can help to quickly identify the gradient zones and where the cutoff can be expected and help identify local maxes and mins (the later though could easily be found by assessing numerous variable). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Beer ! Love me some Cab though.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Just now, wkd said: If people would look at the "total positive snow-depth change" instead of the 10:1 total snowfall maps their expectations would be more realistic. Yes. Esp in lower elevations. They would’ve been horrible though in the hills and mountains. I think a lot of them had like 8-12” in N ORH hills and many of them pushing 2+ feet. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Beer ! Just now, Kitz Craver said: Love me some Cab though.. Driving to go get some now. Maybe my patented victory sour monkey and some Josh or decoy cab 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said: Accumulation? Yes 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 32 minutes ago, tunafish said: I'm not disputing that as accurate given the location, elevation, and persistence of the band in that area all day...but... I'm always skeptical of deck measurements, especially since most decks are attached to the house and right under the roof where drifting happens. That one looks level with the rest of the deck at least... I learned that in the 1993 Superstorm, was tracking 1.5-2"/hr on the deck and when it approached 10", I checked out the cul-de-sac and found ~6". Low 20s and late afternoon so no delay in accumulation. (That storm was one of the more disappointing 10"+ events in memory, as essentially every other site in New England had more, and the forecast had been 1-3 feet. Warmth aloft caused heavy riming, such that my 1.70" LE only made 10.3".) Moderate snow arrived about 4 PM, but without some inch-an-hour S+ we'll fall short of the 5-9" forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MuddyWx Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 My criticism on the HRRR was about rates / QPF. My bad if that output isn't considered reliable for a meso within a few hours, I didn't know. HRRR was printing out ~0.2" liquid between 2 and 4 pm for I95 NW of boston (Malden, Arlington). This whole area has been in light precip or no precip for that whole time. I think that's a fair comment, and not just saying that the model sucks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Maybe a couple on inches later, but nothing crazy Your total so far? 5” here. It’s wet so I did not keep up with clearing and measuring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 It’s been a rough day downwind of the Whites, Sandwich range, and Ossipees. At times it affected me, but we’ve been pounding for hours now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 15 minutes ago, CCHurricane said: +24” here @ Stratton How is the density? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 I guess several Berkshire ski areas lost power and did not open. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Really starting to pick up here now with better snow growth and heavier rates. Some decent gusts at times too. Could be enough to bring down some weakened limbs if this keeps up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 4 minutes ago, wkd said: If people would look at the "total positive snow-depth change" instead of the 10:1 total snowfall maps their expectations would be more realistic. it would have been really wrong for here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Just now, weatherwiz said: Really starting to pick up here now with better snow growth and heavier rates. Some decent gusts at times too. Could be enough to bring down some weakened limbs if this keeps up are you reporting from springfield or CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lurker Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Snow blown banks are getting tall. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 5 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: Driving to go get some now. Maybe my patented victory sour monkey and some Josh or decoy cab Lol, drinking Josh now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lurker Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I guess several Berkshire ski areas lost power and did not open. Pats Peak is closed today as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Really starting to pick up here now with better snow growth and heavier rates. Some decent gusts at times too. Could be enough to bring down some weakened limbs if this keeps up Well... That should mean we eventually go to all snow. Lol. Running out of time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: it would have been really wrong for here What's your girlfriend's mom's total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yes. Esp in lower elevations. They would’ve been horrible though in the hills and mountains. I think a lot of them had like 8-12” in N ORH hills and many of them pushing 2+ feet. The weenie maps were fine above 900 or so ‘ many spots will be well over 20 from New your upstate to Berks to VT to N orh county to monads . Many Of those areas will be 30-40 by midnight . Globals couldn’t get close to resolving snow maps given how elevation dependent they were and with the orographic influences . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 2 minutes ago, lurker said: Pats Peak is closed today as well. That's a shame. Fun little mountain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Based on measuring every 2-3 hours where I've cleared, 11.5" with mod-heavy snow 1/4 viz. 16-22 pack in the fields and 24-27 in the woods (highest of the season) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yes. Esp in lower elevations. They would’ve been horrible though in the hills and mountains. I think a lot of them had like 8-12” in N ORH hills and many of them pushing 2+ feet. Absolutely true, but it is better for wienies like me to have snowfall exceed expectations than be disappointed when the 10:1 clown maps don't work out. Experienced mets usually have a better grasp of regional situations and know when modeled snow depth change is too low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 4.75 in Methuen as of 4:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 11 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said: What else is a snow starved weenie to do… trim them friggin' finger nails, bub, that's what. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now