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Last Hurrah Obs Thread: 3/13-15/23


WxWatcher007
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36f and light showers after a solid drenching overnight..the winter of yore continues! The winds are def starting to howl. Will def be interesting to see how the coastal flooding situation develops as the low intensifies. It’s gonna be a long, noisy eve!
 

 

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12 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Drove up to Goshen.  A bit scary with many trees snapping. Loved the drive in the snow though low visibility and heavy snow.  Saw about 40 utility trucks. Made it to Ivy Mountain Rd elevation 1400’ only 45 min from my house. 14” pack I’m sure 18”+ storm total if you measured every 6 hours. Major difference at 750, and 1100’ there. 

717128E9-1A71-4F50-85E6-4132A5B2AADE.jpeg

Pretty amazing variability: even if it was well predicted.  Nice pic

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14 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

Box sticking with the 4-6 for most of eastern mass. Tonight is going to be wild for that to happen.

This has been the worst year for snow in and around the Boston Metro since I believe 2012. If it wasn't for this storm I would have included most of the state.

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13 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Would not shock me if ones out here do the same.  Lots of trees and wires down 

I would certainly expect it in your area... They might as well get ahead of the curve and delay or cancel now; coverage of issues likely to expand!

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Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

A week of tracking to hopefully get a coating tonight. This winter man.

Lol..very true..which is why I put myself in a self-imposed timeout from this board and model watching from early yesterday until this morning. I probably should have extended the timeout. 

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

The weird thing is we get harped on for data quality all the time by them, but it’s impossible to change data once it’s in their system (hence the harping). 

We went through an entire decade of incorrect 30 year normals for snowfall because they used 0s instead of Ms for the 3 years of missing BDL snowfall data. 

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A friend of mine is out driving looking for photo ops and he said he’s seen 10 to 15 inch snow differentials across 3 or 4 mile distances.
He said there is 15 inches of snow 4 miles from my house.  I probably have 5” total for the day.

Somebody on FB said in Shutesbury there is 2” on the southern end of town close to 20” inches in the north.
 

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6 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said:

Has it really been that bad though? Honestly I haven’t paid a ton of attention but this is the 12z run from this morning valid 21z today showing 1-2 inches max for Boston at 10:1 which we knew to toss those ratios anyways…

 

1969B59A-6169-4A29-A49C-AE2B49502F62.png

People trash a model if snowfall doesn't produce in their back yard. If someone says 'x' model sucks, I want them to cite an evaluation (post-hoc or operational) of meteorological forcing fields related to heat and moisture both at the surface and aloft. Those fields contributes significantly to the accuracy of NWP... Not snowfall at one location (which is typically calculated from a private website, excluding a couple NWP models).

If someone were to run an evaluation of this event, you'll likely find that temperature performed well (sfc + aloft), moisture performed okay (Td or specific humidity at the sfc and aloft), and wind speed performed okay (directional and magnitudinal at the sfc and aloft - worse as you approach the surface). All NWP models struggle with QPF (for a number of reasons) so it's not solely used to determine a model's overall performance. Through my experience, it usually performs reasonable as a bulk statistic.

IMO, ensembles should always be used for QPF forecasting. Diagnostic models should be used to determine trends.

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6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

38” on the level in West Dover, VT 

9DC439A7-545F-4A14-926C-C718DD3F2192.jpeg.6207de1229ca292158a2d9f246b2b475.jpeg

I'm not disputing that as accurate given the location, elevation, and persistence of the band in that area all day...but...

I'm always skeptical of deck measurements, especially since most decks are attached to the house and right under the roof where drifting happens.  That one looks level with the rest of the deck at least...

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