Last Hurrah Obs Thread: 3/13-15/23

[8611Blizz]

As a side note, in my travels today I've seen almost all state trucks out with the private guys. Driving around practicing for when it does snow?

[Lava Rock]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I believe it’s two different ways of calculating lift, one from the 2005 paper and the other from 2011.

when's the nxt afd update?

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah, something is up. 

ORH already beat that in 2015 too. Not sure why that isn’t in the NCEI database. What a disaster that data set is. 
 

 

[OceanStWx]

Just now, Lava Rock said:

when's the nxt afd update?

Should be any minute, but I’m just a sick leave bystander today.

[8611Blizz]

Box sticking with the 4-6 for most of eastern mass. Tonight is going to be wild for that to happen.

[Damage In Tolland]

19 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ryan posted a link 29” all time Massachusetts state 24 hour record! Already multiple 30”+ reports 

Rowe has 32”

[The 4 Seasons]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I believe the only difference the two is just the Cobb 11 is an updated version to Cobb 5. I forget off hand what the difference is, the Cobb 11 uses something slightly different. 

Cobb method is probably the best method out there, unlike the Kuchera or the 10:1 maps, the method takes into account many different variable, including DGZ and lift. 

Max T in profile can be good, but misleading. 

For bufkit I download all my profiles from

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/bufkit/CONUS_NAM_12.html

I'll have a list saved in bufget so you can just grab the data with one click of the button. If you change the run time to latest, you'll get the most recent data

 

Yep, i use the same link for bufkit. Thanks for the info, i have a suspicion that Max Temp in Profile is Kuchera. I check them all just never knew the difference between the different cobbs. Seems the number represents the year of release of the papers for each method according to Oceanstatewx. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Several School districts across portions of mainly northern Litchfield County are canceling for Wednesday due to trees and power lines down and some impassable roads...

Would not shock me if ones out here do the same.  Lots of trees and wires down 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, FXWX said:

Several School districts across portions of mainly northern Litchfield County are canceling for Wednesday due to trees and power lines down and some impassable roads...

Drove up to Goshen.  A bit scary with many trees snapping. Loved the drive in the snow though low visibility and heavy snow.  Saw about 40 utility trucks. Made it to Ivy Mountain Rd elevation 1400’ only 45 min from my house. 14” pack I’m sure 18”+ storm total if you measured every 6 hours. Major difference at 750, and 1100’ there. 

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

You are easily getting 3-6" 

I’ll go under . Just remember at 4AM when I said snow here by 8, Dryslot by 8:02. . Slot from 8:02 - 2:00. Moderate to almost heavy now 32.1

[Modfan2]

Steady snow now here at 250’ in E CT

[Ginx snewx]

36 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

  I want to see if eye like feature heading NW towards Central Maine actually turns SW as depicted.  https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-northeast-02-24-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

You can see low top tstorms getting sheared off in sw center

[Kbosch]

Melted all the "snow" we had under bright clouds.

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I believe it’s two different ways of calculating lift, one from the 2005 paper and the other from 2011.

Ahhh thanks! Speaking of that, I should go back and re-read those papers and prepare for next winter.

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Yep, i use the same link for bufkit. Thanks for the info, i have a suspicion that Max Temp in Profile is Kuchera. I check them all just never knew the difference between the different cobbs. Seems the number represents the year of release of the papers for each method according to Oceanstatewx. 

I'll also use Iowa state sometimes for bufkit (as a backup) but this site is so much friendlier. Only issue is if it's down...well no bufkit  

hmmm..that's a good question, I wonder if Max T in profile is Kucheria, but I don't believe it is. 

[ORH_wxman]

Things starting to fill in again

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

2 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

Box sticking with the 4-6 for most of eastern mass. Tonight is going to be wild for that to happen.

The low isn't sub 980 mb yet, I'm not sure that ever happens, the NE-SW nipple which I think may be causing the Long Island death band should weaken further, my Weenie vision says/hopes band to the S causing subsidence weakens and band maybe starting offshore rotates into EMA/NEMA and snows.  4-6" would require a miracle, but 1-3", even at BOS on the coast, not impossible

[dendrite]

Power just flickered

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

ORH already beat that in 2015 too. Not sure why that isn’t in the NCEI database. What a disaster that data set is. 
 

 

It's embarrassing the database with seasonal (and subsequent monthly snow totals) is. IDK where to go anymore to find this stuff. Seems any source that exists all has different numbers.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You can see low top tstorms getting sheared off in sw center

Cool being able to track a surface low and it isn't even hurricane season.

[dendrite]

Shoud get one last good push from the east up here and then it starts to rot. 

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Ahhh thanks! Speaking of that, I should go back and re-read those papers and prepare for next winter.

I'll also use Iowa state sometimes for bufkit (as a backup) but this site is so much friendlier. Only issue is if it's down...well no bufkit  

hmmm..that's a good question, I wonder if Max T in profile is Kucheria, but I don't believe it is. 

Max T would probably be very similar, as Kuchera looks at the max T below 500 mb.

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Power just flickered

[weathafella]

Radar looks really good SW of here around 495.   Looks atrocious here.   
 

 

[wxsniss]

Nothing that hasn't already been said here... but echoes that there remains potential for a few inches in eastern SNE tonight:

Quite an impressive storm which will pinwheel westward toward the
eastern MA coast this evening then loop southward before pulling
away overnight. Dry slot which has impacted areas south of the
Mass Pike will fill in through the afternoon as DGZ becomes
saturated with increasing lift leading to another pulse of
heavier snow across SNE. The focus for the heaviest snow through
the early evening will be across N/NE MA as strong NE low level
jet from the Gulf of Maine rotates toward NE MA. While temps
are slightly above freezing, the heavier snowfall rates are
allowing snow to accumulate. Coupled with the strong winds that
will develop, very hazardous driving conditions expected in NE
MA with some power outages.

The challenge into this evening is snowfall accum across RI and SE
MA. Initially, will not get much accum from melting but as precip
rates increase and temps drop as we approach sunset, expect
accum to commence and expect some hazardous conditions on
untreated roads.

We opted to keep the winter headlines as is. While some areas in
eastern MA will fall short of criteria, the combination of wind, snow
and reduced vsbys will result in enough impacts. Expect 6-8 inches
accum across interior NE MA, decreasing to 3-6 inches along I-95
corridor from BOS to northern RI into NE CT, and 1-3" along and
south of PVD-TAN-PWM corridor. The snow will begin to lessen in
intensity between 8 pm and midnight as dry slot rotates around the
mid level low, but probably not end until late tonight in eastern
MA.

[radiator]

6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Drove up to Goshen.  A bit scary with many trees snapping. Loved the drive in the snow though low visibility and heavy snow.  Saw about 40 utility trucks. Made it to Ivy Mountain Rd elevation 1400’ only 45 min from my house. 14” pack I’m sure 18”+ storm total if you measured every 6 hours. Major difference at 750, and 1100’ there. 

Steep gradient in this general area - you're not all that far from me (in Washington Depot) but even at 750' elevation only have a few inches (eyeballing it as less than 4) - go a little bit north from here and the totals increase dramatically (and so do the power outages).

 

 

[CT Rain]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah, something is up. 

The records are an absolute mess around here for snowfall. Not sure why the disconnect between the WFOs and NCEI over the last couple decades here.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Radar looks really good SW of here around 495.   Looks atrocious here.   
 

 

0.0 and stacking up here 

[HoarfrostHubb]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It's embarrassing the database with seasonal (and subsequent monthly snow totals) is. IDK where to go anymore to find this stuff. Seems any source that exists all has different numbers.

Just ask Will 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

The records are an absolute mess around here for snowfall. Not sure why the disconnect between the WFOs and NCEI over the last couple decades here.

The weird thing is we get harped on for data quality all the time by them, but it’s impossible to change data once it’s in their system (hence the harping).