Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,608
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Vesuvius
    Newest Member
    Vesuvius
    Joined

Last Hurrah Obs Thread: 3/13-15/23


WxWatcher007
 Share

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Man I hope your’re right . Radar just will not fill in . Dim sun every now and again and wet flakes. I’m of the mindset the nam was right with the slot never filling here 

Looks like theres some echoes near or over you now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

yea it's been wrong. every run after that was also snowier around boston. never sniffed out the patchy precip and extent of the dryslot. 

 

6 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

It was mostly right that run but that’s because it showed a low amount of snow EMA. 
You know damn well now that it shows 6”+ over the same area it will be wrong. Winter 22-23

15z and 16z images below for 21z show 2-3” max - again with 10:1 ratios and temps around 34/35, it was obvious to toss the clown map.

Sucks you guys are getting screwed down there but listen to the pros. BOX put out 4-6 this morning and I expect that to verify most likely on the low end. 

ADFC01DD-89B2-4B65-8FB2-0F2FA6E4CFAC.png

3AEC329C-FEF3-4537-9CE3-B23CA5580778.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I thought at the least this would be one of the inumerable times I'd be on the rainy side of a nor'easter. On the outside looking in.

This just doesn't really feel like one though. Particularly the winds. Even right at the bay... 15 mph, not even gusting to 30. Really unremarkable. 

I see winds are increasing, but still. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ryan posted a link 29” all time Massachusetts state 24 hour record! Already multiple 30”+ reports 

Not sure that's actually a state record. Depends upon how far back he compares. 30 years, 60, 90? '78 had that in several places in less that 24 hours and that was a 30 hour storm.. April Fools Days storm of 1997 had a few of those. that was a 24-Hour storm and of course Blizzard of January 2005, 24-Hour storm. So again, not sure what Ryan is looking at.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Nasty band just over the border in NY. 

That band curves into Long Island, where ISP is 33F and SN+ and NYC forum posters even on the S. Shore are reporting snow accumulating on grass.  Far from the low, which seems to be an sign for 1-3 inch optimism even at BOS as low gets closer and sun angle decreases towards evening.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said:

 

15z and 16z images below for 21z show 2-3” max - again with 10:1 ratios and temps around 34/35, it was obvious to toss the clown map.

Sucks you guys are getting screwed down there but listen to the pros. BOX put out 4-6 this morning and I expect that to verify most likely on the low end. 

ADFC01DD-89B2-4B65-8FB2-0F2FA6E4CFAC.png

3AEC329C-FEF3-4537-9CE3-B23CA5580778.png

BOX put out 6-8" for my hood and I don't think I'll hit 3". Just didn't go as modeled in terms of rates for this area

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Greg said:

Not sure that's actually a state record. Depends upon how far back he compares. 30 years, 60, 90? '78 had that in several places in less that 24 hours. April Fools Days storm of 1997 had a few of those. that was a 24-Hour storm and of course Blizzard of January 2005. So again, not sure what Ryan is looking at.

I shared the link it’s from 97

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Do you know what the difference is between Cobb 5 and Cobb 11? I never really understood that. And which one do you use in bufkit?

They also have "Max Temp in Profile" which sounds similar to Kuchera or essentially is the Kuchera method? I know Kuchera uses a formula based on t-max in profile 

I believe the only difference the two is just the Cobb 11 is an updated version to Cobb 5. I forget off hand what the difference is, the Cobb 11 uses something slightly different. 

Cobb method is probably the best method out there, unlike the Kuchera or the 10:1 maps, the method takes into account many different variable, including DGZ and lift. 

Max T in profile can be good, but misleading. 

For bufkit I download all my profiles from

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/bufkit/CONUS_NAM_12.html

I'll have a list saved in bufget so you can just grab the data with one click of the button. If you change the run time to latest, you'll get the most recent data

image.png.c4adf40417c2c1c2defb308da4847675.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I believe the only difference the two is just the Cobb 11 is an updated version to Cobb 5. I forget off hand what the difference is, the Cobb 11 uses something slightly different. 

Cobb method is probably the best method out there, unlike the Kuchera or the 10:1 maps, the method takes into account many different variable, including DGZ and lift. 

Max T in profile can be good, but misleading. 

For bufkit I download all my profiles from

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/bufkit/CONUS_NAM_12.html

I'll have a list saved in bufget so you can just grab the data with one click of the button. If you change the run time to latest, you'll get the most recent data

image.png.c4adf40417c2c1c2defb308da4847675.png

I believe it’s two different ways of calculating lift, one from the 2005 paper and the other from 2011.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Greg said:

Not sure that's actually a state record. Depends upon how far back he compares. 30 years, 60, 90? '78 had that in several places in less that 24 hours and that was a 30 hour storm.. April Fools Days storm of 1997 had a few of those. that was a 24-Hour storm and of course Blizzard of January 2005, 24-Hour storm. So again, not sure what Ryan is looking at.

The “record” was from April 1997 in Natick

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...