Last Hurrah Obs Thread: 3/13-15/23

[TalcottWx]

3" at home in Simsbury, per the wife. 

[fz583]

39.7F In Hopkinton Ma. 1.48" of rain so far, at 450'

[ineedsnow]

getting crushed this is nuts!

[LSC97wxnut]

Absolutely pouring rain in Newtonville this morning.
Kids are getting out at noon today.

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[UnitedWx]

My father just texted from Simsbury. He says either lightning, or power lines sparking. With the weight of this stuff, probably power lines 

[UnitedWx]

4 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

3" at home in Simsbury, per the wife. 

Hopefully she keeps power.  Dad says lines are flashing and power flickering. He's on Great Pond Road 

[Lava Rock]

Looks like summer time tstorms on radar

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[Sugarloaf1989]

Looks like about 2"

[dendrite]

They are getting wrecked just west of Saratoga Springs with QS banding. 
 

[Torch Tiger]

Ripping here, absolutely wild. Rain, but still!

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Looks like summer time tstorms on radar

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Brightbanding gone wild

 

[TalcottWx]

5:30 AM

 

[TalcottWx]

This is a very important part of the morning now. That mega band is going to pivot and rotate, but how long does Northern CT dryslot?

[Sugarloaf1989]

4 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Ripping here, absolutely wild. Rain, but still!

Glad we don't live there. 

[ROOSTA]

CC is steadfast not budging on the W side, with slight movement toward the S on NW periphery.
Going to be like watching grass grow for the next hour or two.  

[dendrite]

So the bottom of the snow (mixing) level is collapsing toward BOX on the NW side, but it’s still around 800ft up toward ORH. The top of the mixing layer is around 2kft near ORH, 3kft by Ray, and 5kft by Tolland. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

So the bottom of the snow (mixing) level is collapsing toward BOX on the NW side, but it’s still around 800ft up toward ORH. The top of the mixing layer is around 2kft near ORH, 3kft by Ray, and 5kft by Tolland. 

Thoughts this area on changeover? 8-9?

[metagraphica]

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Brightbanding gone wild

 

 

7 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

5:30 AM

 

 

Not brightbanding down here.  It's actual heavy f00king rain.

[dendrite]

Just now, metagraphica said:

 

 

Not brightbanding down here.  It's actual heavy f00king rain.

It’s still brightbanding aloft. The radar hits your area well above your head. 

[klw]

5.1 inches so far, just light at the moment.

[TalcottWx]

8.5" Granby

3.5" Simsbury

3.0" Weatogue

[tavwtby]

woke to 6 of absolute mashed potatoes, covered everything, I would not be shocked if power goes, still ripping too

[Damage In Tolland]

 

[PowderBeard]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

Great area. My wife and I got married there and most of the town is >1,200'. The place we got married was ~1,500'.

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Thoughts this area on changeover? 8-9?

Haven’t looked at a lot yet, but some models really pork your area. 3k is toward noon and HRRR is very late afternoon. That remnant low from the inv trough just kinda sits over you. 

[UnitedWx]

This is going to absolutely SUCK to snowblow!!

[dan11295]

17k out currently statewide per MEMA all in western MA right now. I am guessing those numbers start jumping in N ORH county soon.

[ineedsnow]

1) Snow Amounts & Impacts:

East Slopes of the Berks and northern Worcester Hills...

A very high impact/serious winter storm is in progress for the high
terrain of the  northern Worcester Hills and Berks at and above 1000
feet. Powerful intensifying coastal low pressure is resulting in an
easterly firehose of moisture off the Atlantic which is combined
with upslope flow and adequate thermal profiles to produce very
heavy wet snow. This will be a very serious storm for this region
with 1 to 2+ feet of heavy wet snow resulting in downed tree limbs
and power outages. In fact...a few spots in the highest terrain may
see total snow amounts may approach 30 inches! The snow may become a
bit drier by late afternoon and into the evening before finally
winding down overnight. But a very serious storm is in progress for
this region and will continue into the evening.

[TalcottWx]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

1) Snow Amounts & Impacts:

East Slopes of the Berks and northern Worcester Hills...

A very high impact/serious winter storm is in progress for the high
terrain of the  northern Worcester Hills and Berks at and above 1000
feet. Powerful intensifying coastal low pressure is resulting in an
easterly firehose of moisture off the Atlantic which is combined
with upslope flow and adequate thermal profiles to produce very
heavy wet snow. This will be a very serious storm for this region
with 1 to 2+ feet of heavy wet snow resulting in downed tree limbs
and power outages. In fact...a few spots in the highest terrain may
see total snow amounts may approach 30 inches! The snow may become a
bit drier by late afternoon and into the evening before finally
winding down overnight. But a very serious storm is in progress for
this region and will continue into the evening.

Here I'll post the rest.

 

Lower Elevations Including the Coastal Plain:

Ptype has mainly been a cold heavy rain through early this morning
given warmer boundary layer...but Ptype was in the process of
flipping to wet snow across parts of southwest MA and into portions
of northern CT. This likely a result of the intense vertical motion
and heavy QPF despite marginal thermal profiles. As the main coastal
low rapidly intensifies and lifts northward of the eastern MA
coast...thermal profiles will cool further and Ptype should flip to
wet snow in most locations through mid to late afternoon. In fact
some of the high resolution guidance intensifies it to nearly a 975
mb low east of the MA coastline. Temps will likely remain above
freezing outside the most intense snowfall. However...this system is
so strong with intense jet dynamics and a classic intensifying 700
mb closed low along with backbent mid level warm front. This may
result in an area of heavy wet snow...but there is uncertainty where
this may occur. Thinking is that areas of northeast MA may stand the
best chance of getting impacted with this for at least a few hours.
This could make for a few hours of very difficult travel this
afternoon especially with the strong winds expected to develop. But
this will also be competing with a mid level dryslot which makes
things quite tricky.

While uncertainty is higher than what we would like to see...opted
to upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning for the rest of northeast MA
for 3 to 8 inches of wet snow especially because it will be combined
with a period of 45 to 65 mph wind gusts this afternoon. Things may
get quite messy across this region during the afternoon given the
wind and wet snow and travel may become quite difficult with power
outages.

We also upgraded portions of the lower elevations of southwest MA
for 4 to 8 inches of wet snow including the Springfield metro areas.
Meanwhile...thinking area in the 500 to 800 foot range end up
with snowfall amounts on the order of 6 to 12+ inches of snow
with power outage potential.

Snow will continue this evening before winding down overnight. Even
portions of the Cape/South coast may see a few inches of wet snow
before everything winds down.

2) High Wind Potential:

A powerful NNE low level jet will develop on the left side of a very
strong 975 mb low pressure system off the MA coast. This will result
in strong wind gusts developing...which should peak this afternoon.
High Wind Warnings continue for the eastern MA coast...for a
period of 45 to 65 mph wind gusts. The strongest of the wind
gusts will be across eastern Essex county/Cape Ann given their
exposure to a 70-75 850 MB NNE low level jet this afternoon and
evening. Conditions may become quite difficult for travel
especially with the wet snow and potential power outages.
Further inland...wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph will still cause
issues with pasty wet snow and lead to power outages.

[TalcottWx]

Let's see that pivot. There is some backfilling now as the dry slot makes it's further progression north. Going to see it fill in. Just a matter of how long it may take.