olafminesaw Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Screw it. I am going to will this into existence. Dynamics are actually looking rather impressive at the moment on hires models. Unclear whether the column will be cold enough, but come on now. let's see some flakes people. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Not having seen this new thread, I just had posted this in the main one: "More immediately, there's a good chance for snow falling for part of tomorrow for especially northern NC! It would be a challenge for it to stick but not impossible in some areas for some stickage. But it just falling would be quite notable, especially for mid March and this winter's lack of it." Good luck to you guys! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 With a little luck Boone could quadruple the official snow total for the winter with this one.Of course the airport is currently at a half inch on the season so it's not like it's gonna take much. Concerned about sleet mixing in but if we can avoid that I wouldn't be surprised for some spots up here to get 3-4"Sent from my SM-S911U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 I'm beginning to think tomorrow is the best chance for accumulating snow here this winter. It may not be much but the models are actually increasing totals generally for the northern foothills and piedmont Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Latest HRRR. Not finished yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 The 12Z GFS has RDU down to 34 and 100% RH early tomorrow afternoon with rain/snow mix falling. I'm not looking for sticking (though some sticking on nonpaved surfaces in some areas possible), but seeing some flakes falling is the main potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 11, 2023 Author Share Posted March 11, 2023 The warm nose is probably the biggest argument against snow in the Piedmont. Kinda hard to predict to what degree the mid-levels will cooperate and whether there is enough low level cold to be sleet if not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 11, 2023 Author Share Posted March 11, 2023 Brutally close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Latest HRRR still bringing the goods. Too bad the NAM isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 A man can dream... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 The signal on both the EPS and GEFS is honestly the best it has looked this season, especially this close to the event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 24 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: The signal on both the EPS and GEFS is honestly the best it has looked this season, especially this close to the event. I'm excited for you guys to see a nice fall of snow (mixed with rain). As long as expectations of sticking are kept in check (like expecting none), this looks like fun for y'all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 12, 2023 Author Share Posted March 12, 2023 The HRRR has been trending warmer aloft, but still has a decent period of heavy kitchen sink tomorrow morning. Here is a comparison of the 0z actual sounding to what the HRRR has. Seems to have a good handle on things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 12, 2023 Author Share Posted March 12, 2023 RAH agressive for once (when the stakes are low I suppose). Matches up pretty well with the HRRr's depiction (I think it would be cold enough for some stickage in grassy areas) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 From RDU: A COMBINATION OF TOP-DOWN AND FORECAST PARTIAL THICKNESS/TRENDS NOMOGRAM FAVOR THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP/NEAR FREEZING ISOTHERMAL LAYER ALOFT AND MELTING OF SNOW IN A SHALLOW, ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE LAYER THAT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A LARGER AND MORE PROLONGED AREA OF RAIN/SNOW MIX OR EVEN ALL SNOW ACROSS THE NRN NC PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING. THAT APPEARS TO BE THE CASE AFTER AN INITIAL PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN INCOMPLETELY SATURATING/COOLING THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER AT ONSET, THEN BOTH WARMING AND DRYING ALOFT, AND INSOLATION FROM A MID- MARCH SUN ANGLE, DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WOULD FAVOR A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN/DRIZZLE THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ***HOWEVER, MOST/ALL SNOW SHOULD MELT AS IT FALLS*** OWING TO 1) VERY WARM SOIL TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE RANGED FROM MID 40S TO LWR 50S F THE PAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS TO 50S TO NEAR 60 F THIS AFTERNOON, 2) ABOVE FREEZING AIR TEMPERATURES EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A 2-3 HR PERIOD WHEN HEAVIER PRECIP RATES WOULD FAVOR "MELTING OUT"/ DIABATICALLY- COOLING TO 32-33F AN OTHERWISE ~750-1000 FT AGL ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE LAYER, AND 3) A MID-MARCH/LATE WINTER SUN ANGLE THROUGH THE MORNING-MIDDAY HOURS. ANY ACCUMULATION OF PERHAPS A TENTH TO TWO WOULD BE LIMITED TO ANY PERIOD OF ALL SNOW AND CONFINED TO ELEVATED SURFACES NEAR THE VA BORDER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 ^Soil temps? Check!Sun angle? Check!RAH playing all the hits in their disco.Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 7 minutes ago, calculus1 said: ^ Soil temps? Check! Sun angle? Check! RAH playing all the hits in their disco. Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk How much does sun angle matter anywhere and at any time of year if there is a thick overcast? Anyone know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 13 minutes ago, GaWx said: How much does sun angle matter anywhere and at any time of year if there is a thick overcast? Anyone know? A lot. I think it was DC in March 2018ish. It killed us when temps were marginal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 GFS showing light accumulations here now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 39 and cloudy here now with virga. 5 degree drop and it's close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just had a mixed shower pass through here Mostly sleet with rain and snow mixed in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Per RDU: AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY... ...WINTRY MIX EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT COUNTIES... ...HAVE INCREASED SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT COUNTIES... ..IMPACTS STILL EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A PERIOD OF MIXED WINTRY PRECIP WILL BEGIN LATER THIS MORNING AND COULD LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT/I-85 CORRIDOR, BEFORE EVERYTHING CHANGES OVER TO LIQUID RAIN. OVER THE PAST 24-36 HOURS, MODELS ARE LESS SUPPRESSED WRT TO STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE REGION. THUS, LIQUID EQUIVALENT HAVE INCREASED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH FAIRLY UNIFORM LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF 0.50-0.66" EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER, THE STRONGER SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT FARTHER NORTH CENTRAL NC ALSO MEANS A MODEL SIGNALING OF SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT, WHICH INTRODUCES INCREASING CHANCES FOR MORE MIXED PRECIP, WHICH INCLUDES SLEET MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN AND SNOW AT TIMES. A FORECAST OF MIXED P-TYPE INHERENTLY INTRODUCES A GOOD DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WRT TO ACTUAL SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS. WITH THAT SAID, THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE HI-RES ENSEMBLE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL CHANCES OF AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF SNOW/SLEET ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN, I-85 CORRIDOR COUNTIES. WHILE IT'S POSSIBLE TO SEE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER(PERSON COUNTY), THE RECENT RECORD WARMTH HAS RESULTED IN VERY WARM GROUND TEMPS. THUS, ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD LARGELY BE CONFINED TO ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS ROOF TOPS AND DECKS, WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ON ROADS AND BRIDGES. * Edit at 5:40 AM: sleet reported in W portion of Triad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Light snow here in Colfax NC. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BG_Slick Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Had a mix of snow, sleet and rain with a low temp of 33F. Enough to cover cars and decks with a coating of icy mix and a bit on the roof tops...but not much else in the way of accumulation. Radar looked better than actual results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Oh ye of little faith. Woke up about 7 and checked personal weather station for current temp and low temp. Concerned over possible bad decision of not covering young Keifer pear tree with frost cloth. Saw the blue overhead in the weather radar and rushed to den to flip on deck light and look outside. Light to medium downfall of large snowflakes with zero mixing. At dawn looked again and ground was covered with a dusting. Picture Snoopy happy dance!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 It looks like Raleigh and Greensboro both wound up with a trace as per the official records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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