Spring 2023 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[MidwestChaser]

Snow bunnies get out reeeee.

[SolidIcewx]

With a strong El Niño forming how is it going to impact severe weather season?

[Powerball]

On 4/5/2023 at 10:43 AM, Powerball said:

Just in time for me to go back.

God bless Texas & the Sunbelt. Love it!

 

[bowtie`]

2 minutes ago, Powerball said:

 

Now do DTW

[SolidIcewx]

2 minutes ago, Powerball said:

 

Seen some bloom this morning in a few elm trees. The warmth this week is going to get everything going

[bowtie`]

It is like you never left home.

[Powerball]

3 minutes ago, bowtie` said:

Now do DTW

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, SolidIcewx said:

With a strong El Niño forming how is it going to impact severe weather season?

The strength of nino is yet to be determined. Regardless it would affect next severe season, not this one I'd think.

[SolidIcewx]

19 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

The strength of nino is yet to be determined. Regardless it would affect next severe season, not this one I'd think.

I seen something in OT and made me think about it this morning more so for mid summer storms and weather patterns

[Stebo]

With how quickly the El Nino is forming, it absolutely can impact this season, especially because the eastern 1.2 region of the ENSO are  very warm while the 3-4 regions are still warming, you get a very high +TNI which is a positive impact for severe weather in the country.

[michsnowfreak]

17 minutes ago, Stebo said:

With how quickly the El Nino is forming, it absolutely can impact this season, especially because the eastern 1.2 region of the ENSO are  very warm while the 3-4 regions are still warming, you get a very high +TNI which is a positive impact for severe weather in the country.

Interesting. Thanks for the info, mine was just a guess lol. I'll pass on severe weather locally. I've seen enough tree damage this year. But hopefully all who want it get it.

[SolidIcewx]

3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Interesting. Thanks for the info, mine was just a guess lol. I'll pass on severe weather locally. I've seen enough tree damage this year. But hopefully all who want it get it.

Give me a Florida style lightning storm and I’ll be happy

[Spartman]

[rainsucks]

8 minutes ago, Spartman said:

the models have done this numerous times this year and it never ended up verifying. Proven fact btw, not an opinion

[SolidIcewx]

24 minutes ago, Spartman said:

What goes up must come down

[sielicki]

On 4/11/2023 at 6:58 AM, SolidIcewx said:

With a strong El Niño forming how is it going to impact severe weather season?

 

[olafminesaw]

Wowee, that's a lotta snow for the UP

[Harry]

So I am seeing mjo crawl through phase 7 on its way to phase 1 and going into the cod. NAO, AO, EPO all tanking while the PNA goes positive?  

[hardypalmguy]

So I am seeing mjo crawl through phase 7 on its way to phase 1 and going into the cod. NAO, AO, EPO all tanking while the PNA goes positive?  

Thank god for a greenhouse. At least I have strong sun.

[Powerball]

9 hours ago, Harry said:

So I am seeing mjo crawl through phase 7 on its way to phase 1 and going into the cod. NAO, AO, EPO all tanking while the PNA goes positive?  

Yep. 

Even down here, it's looking ugly. Was hoping we'd be done with the 60s until next winter...

 

[SolidIcewx]

5 hours ago, Powerball said:

Yep. 

Even down here, it's looking ugly. Was hoping we'd be done with the 60s until next winter...

 

Come back up for a visit tomorrow. Will make the 60s look like a heat wave lol 

[cyclone77]

Thursday system looks pretty interesting.  A strong warm front is gonna bisect the DVN/LOT cwas.  Looks like one of those days where it'll be stuck in the 40s at Dubuque all day, while southeast IA basks in the tropical 70s with a severe threat.  SPC (Broyles lol)  has a risk way south in southern MO/AR, but will likely need to be expanded much further north in later outlooks.

[CheeselandSkies]

1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

Thursday system looks pretty interesting.  A strong warm front is gonna bisect the DVN/LOT cwas.  Looks like one of those days where it'll be stuck in the 40s at Dubuque all day, while southeast IA basks in the tropical 70s with a severe threat.  SPC (Broyles lol)  has a risk way south in southern MO/AR, but will likely need to be expanded much further north in later outlooks.

Yeah, I was looking at that on the 12Z GFS and thinking the same thing about SPC's outlook. It's odd because I thought the knock on Broyles was that he's almost always excessively bullish on severe potential.

The main caveat is if the low is occluding/weakening by the time it gets into the region Thursday afternoon/evening which looks like a possibility. However the GFS still has it at 994 MB at 21Z Thursday with the warm front well up into WI (probably too far north, as you mentioned). The think I like is it shows the left exit region of the 500mb jet punching out over the warm sector just ahead of the triple point, when with most setups it wants to linger behind the warm sector during peak heating. That in my mind is one of those synoptic-level red flags that if it's present, overrides a lot of other concerns like moisture, potential for mode issues, etc (3/31 being a major recent example).

 

[hlcater]

7 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Thursday system looks pretty interesting.  A strong warm front is gonna bisect the DVN/LOT cwas.  Looks like one of those days where it'll be stuck in the 40s at Dubuque all day, while southeast IA basks in the tropical 70s with a severe threat.  SPC (Broyles lol)  has a risk way south in southern MO/AR, but will likely need to be expanded much further north in later outlooks.

The biggest issue with 4/19 and 4/20 is wave timing. The primary wave is a bit too far west on 4/19, which would still be workable in W IA, but most models have a shortwave traverse the area the morning of 4/19 which veers the LLJ off to the east with it. That leaves us with 4/20 which has the primary wave ejecting, but probably a bit too quickly to maximize the risk. The Euro's solution is almost good, with primed soundings at 18z across SE IA and W IL, but the wind fields again veer out later in the day and a strongly forced cold front surges east as the wave closes off aloft, doesn't exactly scream visible tornadoes to me. Could see either one of these trending into a somewhat decent local day, but it's difficult to say which one is the better of the two at the moment. 

[CheeselandSkies]

The biggest issue with 4/19 and 4/20 is wave timing. The primary wave is a bit too far west on 4/19, which would still be workable in W IA, but most models have a shortwave traverse the area the morning of 4/19 which veers the LLJ off to the east with it. That leaves us with 4/20 which has the primary wave ejecting, but probably a bit too quickly to maximize the risk. The Euro's solution is almost good, with primed soundings at 18z across SE IA and W IL, but the wind fields again veer out later in the day and a strongly forced cold front surges east as the wave closes off aloft, doesn't exactly scream visible tornadoes to me. Could see either one of these trending into a somewhat decent local day, but it's difficult to say which one is the better of the two at the moment. 

Earlier GFS runs had the low/cold front a little slower, starting with today's 12Z it screams through at 18Z Thursday.

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[Chicago Storm]

On 4/4/2023 at 9:55 PM, Chicago Storm said:

I feel highly confident in saying Chicago has seen it's last accumulating snow for the season, which was back on 3/13. There's a better chance of racking up numerous 70+ days this month than seeing more accumulating snowfall.

or not.

still will end up with more 70+ days (and 80+ days) than tenths of an inch of total snow, so there's that.

[Chicago Storm]

On 4/15/2023 at 5:15 PM, Harry said:

So I am seeing mjo crawl through phase 7 on its way to phase 1 and going into the cod. NAO, AO, EPO all tanking while the PNA goes positive?  

The EPO isn't going negative in any significant or consistent way, and the PNA won't be going positive in any significant or consistent fashion either.

As you mentioned though, we will be seeing a -NAO/-AO pattern for this 2nd half of April. Pair that with a EPO/PNA that are going to be in flux throughout, and an MJO steadily sliding through phases 7-8-1-2.

This will lead to more a classic spring/April rollercoaster pattern for this 2nd half of April, and into the start of May as well. Bouts of mild and cool temperatures are to be expected, with an average to above average pattern in terms of activity.

[Harry]

16 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

The EPO isn't going negative in any significant or consistent way, and the PNA won't be going positive in any significant or consistent fashion either.

As you mentioned though, we will be seeing a -NAO/-AO pattern for this 2nd half of April. Pair that with a EPO/PNA that are going to be in flux throughout, and an MJO steadily sliding through phases 7-8-1-2.

This will lead to more a classic spring/April rollercoaster pattern for this 2nd half of April, and into the start of May as well. Bouts of mild and cool temperatures are to be expected, with an average to above average pattern in terms of activity.

 

Been a while since I have seen the NAO and AO tank like the models are showing. 

Saturday looking potentially interesting? 

[rainsucks]

a -EPO is more likely to lead to deep, entrenched cold from what I’ve seen. -NAO is trickier, can actually lead to mildish conditions at times.

[Chicago Storm]

56 minutes ago, Harry said:

 

Been a while since I have seen the NAO and AO tank like the models are showing. 

We saw a similar period during the 1st half of March.

During that period we saw a mix of mild (AA) and cool (BA) temps, with an average to above average active pattern.

So all in all, this could be similar, just a solid month+ later in the year.