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Spring 2023 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Chicago Storm
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Think we're going to need a specific thread for 4/4 given the potential magnitude of Tuesday's threat, but we have a large D7 15% area outlined in the latest D4-8.

image.png.04f245264cc4ffe029eccbe561ea1c94.png

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However, on Tuesday, as the upper trough ejects
   east and spreads intense deep-layer southwesterly flow over the
   Lower/Mid-MS Valley to the Ohio Valley, a sharp cold front will
   surge east. Rich gulf moisture across a broad warm sector will
   supply plenty of instability, and potentially widespread severe
   thunderstorms will once again be possible across the Mid-MS/Lower OH
   Valley toward the Mid-South and TN Valley.
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2 hours ago, andyhb said:

Think we're going to need a specific thread for 4/4 given the potential magnitude of Tuesday's threat, but we have a large D7 15% area outlined in the latest D4-8.

image.png.04f245264cc4ffe029eccbe561ea1c94.png

06Z GFS actually slows down the trough ejection to the point where Wednesday 4/5 might end up being the bigger day verbatim...not unlike a certain past event recently discussed on another forum. Same days of the week, too.

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Models have been flirting with an upper low digging down into the Ohio Valley next week, keeping our region a bit cool, but the GFS has lost that idea and the Euro is trending away from it.  Tonight's GFS and Euro are blowtorching the plains in the extended, with a bit of summer attempting to spread east across the midwest.

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4 hours ago, rainsucks said:

@Chicago Storm your thoughts on the warmth potential next week? I have to admit, it does look like things could heat up big time, but I’m also concerned that the warmth could eventually be shunted to our south due to the flattening of the ridge.

Yikes, 18z GFS already doing this by next Wednesday. Trends are NOT looking good, ugh

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8 hours ago, rainsucks said:

@Chicago Storm your thoughts on the warmth potential next week? I have to admit, it does look like things could heat up big time, but I’m also concerned that the warmth could eventually be shunted to our south due to the flattening of the ridge.

Haven't had a chance to put out any April thoughts with the active severe weather pattern ongoing, but...

Spring is here for April, let's just put it that way. We are losing a lot of the ridging that has been in place up north, which was shunting the remaining cold air down into our region.

I feel highly confident in saying Chicago has seen it's last accumulating snow for the season, which was back on 3/13. There's a better chance of racking up numerous 70+ days this month than seeing more accumulating snowfall.

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10 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Haven't had a chance to put out any April thoughts with the active severe weather pattern ongoing, but...

Spring is here for April, let's just put it that way. We are losing a lot of the ridging that has been in place up north, which was shunting the remaining cold air down into our region.

I feel highly confident in saying Chicago has seen it's last accumulating snow for the season, which was back on 3/13. There's a better chance of racking up numerous 70+ days this month than seeing more accumulating snowfall.

Morch was delayed, not denied. 

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Was quite appalled by the look of the 06z GFS. Quickly breaks down the ridge and has a nasty cold front moving in by next weekend. I’m really not sure why it wants to break down the ridge so quickly, as teleconnections/MJO don’t really favor such a solution, but I guess we’ll see.

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