andyhb Posted March 29, 2023 Share Posted March 29, 2023 Think we're going to need a specific thread for 4/4 given the potential magnitude of Tuesday's threat, but we have a large D7 15% area outlined in the latest D4-8. Quote However, on Tuesday, as the upper trough ejects east and spreads intense deep-layer southwesterly flow over the Lower/Mid-MS Valley to the Ohio Valley, a sharp cold front will surge east. Rich gulf moisture across a broad warm sector will supply plenty of instability, and potentially widespread severe thunderstorms will once again be possible across the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley toward the Mid-South and TN Valley. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 29, 2023 Share Posted March 29, 2023 2 hours ago, andyhb said: Think we're going to need a specific thread for 4/4 given the potential magnitude of Tuesday's threat, but we have a large D7 15% area outlined in the latest D4-8. 06Z GFS actually slows down the trough ejection to the point where Wednesday 4/5 might end up being the bigger day verbatim...not unlike a certain past event recently discussed on another forum. Same days of the week, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted April 3, 2023 Share Posted April 3, 2023 Extended range looking mild and drier than it has been. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 Models have been flirting with an upper low digging down into the Ohio Valley next week, keeping our region a bit cool, but the GFS has lost that idea and the Euro is trending away from it. Tonight's GFS and Euro are blowtorching the plains in the extended, with a bit of summer attempting to spread east across the midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 6z gfs is a torch, this is our moment friends, nor more cold april 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 0C line moving farther and farther north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 powerball can feel death ridge season starting early 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 ready to torch. let's do it 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 12z rolling in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 It looks like the winter pattern is coming back with troughs digging into Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 27 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: 12z rolling in 3 minutes ago, roardog said: It looks like the winter pattern is coming back with troughs digging into Mexico. Confusion sets in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 56 minutes ago, bowtie` said: Confusion sets in. I meant the pattern we had in winter not a winter like pattern. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainsucks Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 @Chicago Storm your thoughts on the warmth potential next week? I have to admit, it does look like things could heat up big time, but I’m also concerned that the warmth could eventually be shunted to our south due to the flattening of the ridge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 We’re gonna go from the first 50 of the year to the first 70 of the year in a 10 day span. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainsucks Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 4 hours ago, rainsucks said: @Chicago Storm your thoughts on the warmth potential next week? I have to admit, it does look like things could heat up big time, but I’m also concerned that the warmth could eventually be shunted to our south due to the flattening of the ridge. Yikes, 18z GFS already doing this by next Wednesday. Trends are NOT looking good, ugh 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainsucks Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 This is NOT what you want to see if you're hoping for widespread, prolonged warmth. Areas that looked to be seeing 80+ for multiple days may not get out of the 40s now, the trends are REALLY BAD 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 52 minutes ago, rainsucks said: Yikes, 18z GFS already doing this by next Wednesday. Trends are NOT looking good, ugh Where exactly or close to are you located? DTW? ORD? MKE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainsucks Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 1 hour ago, bowtie` said: Where exactly or close to are you located? DTW? ORD? MKE? ORD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 1 minute ago, rainsucks said: ORD Thank you. Now I have a frame of reference for your posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 5, 2023 Author Share Posted April 5, 2023 8 hours ago, rainsucks said: @Chicago Storm your thoughts on the warmth potential next week? I have to admit, it does look like things could heat up big time, but I’m also concerned that the warmth could eventually be shunted to our south due to the flattening of the ridge. Haven't had a chance to put out any April thoughts with the active severe weather pattern ongoing, but... Spring is here for April, let's just put it that way. We are losing a lot of the ridging that has been in place up north, which was shunting the remaining cold air down into our region. I feel highly confident in saying Chicago has seen it's last accumulating snow for the season, which was back on 3/13. There's a better chance of racking up numerous 70+ days this month than seeing more accumulating snowfall. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 best in the game^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 $$$ 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: $$$ Beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 10 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: Haven't had a chance to put out any April thoughts with the active severe weather pattern ongoing, but... Spring is here for April, let's just put it that way. We are losing a lot of the ridging that has been in place up north, which was shunting the remaining cold air down into our region. I feel highly confident in saying Chicago has seen it's last accumulating snow for the season, which was back on 3/13. There's a better chance of racking up numerous 70+ days this month than seeing more accumulating snowfall. Morch was delayed, not denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainsucks Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 Was quite appalled by the look of the 06z GFS. Quickly breaks down the ridge and has a nasty cold front moving in by next weekend. I’m really not sure why it wants to break down the ridge so quickly, as teleconnections/MJO don’t really favor such a solution, but I guess we’ll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 1 hour ago, hardypalmguy said: Morch was delayed, not denied. Except it's April. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 On 4/4/2023 at 8:30 AM, A-L-E-K said: powerball can feel death ridge season starting early Just in time for me to go back. God bless Texas & the Sunbelt. Love it! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 On 3/27/2023 at 5:27 PM, A-L-E-K said: Extended looks good, this is our year 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainsucks Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 23 minutes ago, rainsucks said: woahhhh hey....look at that. March 2012 analog. Looks like I was right that this was coming this year. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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