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Spring 2023 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Chicago Storm
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4 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

This just blew my mind.  Shared this in the Ohio thread, but thought this was a statistic worthy of sharing to the entire subforum. Warmest start to the year at Akron-Canton Regional Airport, but more shockingly 8 of the 14 warmest years on record have occurred in the last nine years, dating back to 1887. Just absolutely astounding.

image.png

It will be interesting to see what kind of temperatures we achieve in the upcoming El Nino. Looking at the records, it's clear that the type of heat we see every single year now only occurred during significant El Nino events (1973, 1991 & 1998) when many of us were youngsters. Of course, 2015 & 2016 are both on the list as well. I suspect we'll see temperatures climb to new record-breaking heights with the next strong El Nino.

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20 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

You're a trip lol. Actually if it's warm I'm fine with it. Only 7 months til the first flakes of '23-24. It's when we get these prolonged spring cold snaps it's hard for a snow weenie to not root snow. 

Remembering large piles of fresh white snow contrasted by dark green grass. A very Colorado looking scene on my HS campus in April '82. Large plow piles post green-up is a pretty rare combo for this region.

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On 3/23/2023 at 3:17 PM, TheClimateChanger said:

It will be interesting to see what kind of temperatures we achieve in the upcoming El Nino. Looking at the records, it's clear that the type of heat we see every single year now only occurred during significant El Nino events (1973, 1991 & 1998) when many of us were youngsters. Of course, 2015 & 2016 are both on the list as well. I suspect we'll see temperatures climb to new record-breaking heights with the next strong El Nino.

This is entirely incorrect.

 

For starters, you mention 1973, 1991, and 1998. But the summers preceding those Ninos would be 1972, 1991, 1997.

 

Secondly, the heatwaves of the 1930s-1950s have yet to be matched in this region. More recently summers are becoming more humid with warmer min temps thus hotter overall mean temps. And of course plenty of hot days too. As recently as the 2000s saw less heat than the 1990s, 1950s, 1940s, 1930s.

 

Strictly in terms of heat, the average # of 90F+ days per decade:

 -------DTW - CLE - CHI 
1870s –   4 - 4 - 8
1880s –   5 - 4 - 5
1890s –   9 - 6 - 11
1900s –   6 - 2 - 9
1910s – 11 - 5 - 14
1920s –   9 - 5 - 13
1930s – 17 - 9 - 19
1940s – 16 - 18 - 23
1950s – 15 - 20 - 28
1960s – 11 - 8 - 19
1970s – 12 - 7 - 21
1980s – 13 - 10 - 22
1990s – 12 - 10 - 16
2000s – 10 - 9 - 13
2010s – 16 - 17 - 19
 

FWIW 

El nino following triple-dip cool ENSO:

1957, 1976, 1986, 2002, 2014

El nino following consecutive cool ENSO adds six more years to the list:

1963, 1968, 1972, 1997, 2009, 2018.

 

 

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Somehow the 00z Euro came in and outdid last night's 00z run in terms of insanity. A 971 mb low with plenty of moisture access. Absolute bomb.

Will just report my tweet here for the ensemble means, which all indicate that Tuesday could be a big day.

 

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