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Spring 2023 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Chicago Storm
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3 hours ago, nwohweather said:

Not much can beat April 2016 though. To see 7” of snow was truly shocking 

I was jealous of missing that one. We only had about a half inch here, just missed it to the south.

 

But as mentioned we have been on a string of late snowfalls.

 

April 18, 2022FB_IMG_1678851970965.thumb.jpg.e44315a620795a39141a74de46a95aaa.jpg

 

April 21, 2021FB_IMG_1678851779820.thumb.jpg.782675b3034cd7f928fa267885305cdf.jpg

 

April 17, 2020FB_IMG_1678851173325.jpg.418b16f62cd4d30f24590066c88e3e05.jpg

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7 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I was jealous of missing that one. We only had about a half inch here, just missed it to the south.

 

But as mentioned we have been on a string of late snowfalls.

 

April 18, 2022FB_IMG_1678851970965.thumb.jpg.e44315a620795a39141a74de46a95aaa.jpg

 

April 21, 2021FB_IMG_1678851779820.thumb.jpg.782675b3034cd7f928fa267885305cdf.jpg

 

April 17, 2020FB_IMG_1678851173325.jpg.418b16f62cd4d30f24590066c88e3e05.jpg

Now you need a last week of April to early may snowfall pic. It’s like filing out a state quarter board check it off the list 

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9 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I was jealous of missing that one. We only had about a half inch here, just missed it to the south.

 

But as mentioned we have been on a string of late snowfalls.

 

April 18, 2022FB_IMG_1678851970965.thumb.jpg.e44315a620795a39141a74de46a95aaa.jpg

 

April 21, 2021FB_IMG_1678851779820.thumb.jpg.782675b3034cd7f928fa267885305cdf.jpg

 

April 17, 2020FB_IMG_1678851173325.jpg.418b16f62cd4d30f24590066c88e3e05.jpg

that's just wrong imo. April snow is garbage

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2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Actually...see the 11pm-1am heavy snow of May 10-11, 2020.

 

Screenshot_20230315_113559_Gallery.jpg

Damn those are good pics sir. Ahh that’s right I forgot about that one. I was sleeping thru that one. Pretty cool how we can torch and on the flip side get neat experiences like that.

Edit: If I remember correctly didn’t the weeks following flip pretty hard?

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2 hours ago, SolidIcewx said:

Damn those are good pics sir. Ahh that’s right I forgot about that one. I was sleeping thru that one. Pretty cool how we can torch and on the flip side get neat experiences like that.

Edit: If I remember correctly didn’t the weeks following flip pretty hard?

Yes it went from very cold to hot. Not sure if you're area got accumulation, it was mostly east side. But we did have snowflakes 5 days in a row (May 8-12).

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On 3/11/2023 at 7:07 AM, IWXwx said:

I'll just leave this right here so that our favorite tropical horticulturalist can make proper preparations.

814temp.new.gif

This is not going to verify well imo, at least for our region. The 18th and 19th look to be the only actual cold days, with the rest of that timeframe being slightly above to potentially well above average, we'll see tho.

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1 hour ago, rainsucks said:

This is not going to verify well imo, at least for our region. The 18th and 19th look to be the only actual cold days, with the rest of that timeframe being slightly above to potentially well above average, we'll see tho.

 

You do know what our normals are? Hoping you are right but I am not seeing it. 

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Next Thursday checks pattern recognition boxes for a legit severe/tornado threat in the region given a juicy air mass (55-60+ Td) surging northward with a sharpening warm front, 70-90 kt flow at h5, and forecast steep mid-level lapse rates.

The forecast lower amplitude 500 mb pattern results in a more favorable wind profile with height, WSW or SW at h5, vs. meridional south or SSW with a negatively tilted trough. In addition, there would be a chance for right moving storms to have residence time near the warm front as opposed to immediately surging north of the boundary.

All the usual caveats apply, including meaningful shifts in the currently favorable looking setup, but at this lead time, one of the better late March synoptic patterns in recent years. March 28, 2020 comes to mind and that event not performing to its potential exemplifies the caveats for March setups.

Signal is there for a flooding threat as well if the boundary can stay convectively active through the night.

At least it's something to monitor and more interesting than the brutal CAD to start this weekend.



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41 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Next Thursday checks pattern recognition boxes for a legit severe/tornado threat in the region given a juicy air mass (55-60+ Td) surging northward with a sharpening warm front, 70-90 kt flow at h5, and forecast steep mid-level lapse rates.

The forecast lower amplitude 500 mb pattern results in a more favorable wind profile with height, WSW or SW at h5, vs. meridional south or SSW with a negatively tilted trough. In addition, there would be a chance for right moving storms to have residence time near the warm front as opposed to immediately surging north of the boundary.

All the usual caveats apply, including meaningful shifts in the currently favorable looking setup, but at this lead time, one of the better late March synoptic patterns in recent years. March 28, 2020 comes to mind and that event not performing to its potential exemplifies the caveats for March setups.

Signal is there for a flooding threat as well if the boundary can stay convectively active through the night.

At least it's something to monitor and more interesting than the brutal CAD to start this weekend.


 

Timing looks off for our region on the 06Z GFS. There's some instability but the lead surface low comes through too early, veering the winds, while the main one is still hanging back in the Rockies at 21Z Thursday.

Lots of bouncing around to go...something to watch, at least.

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Timing looks off for our region on the 06Z GFS. There's some instability but the lead surface low comes through too early, veering the winds, while the main one is still hanging back in the Rockies at 21Z Thursday.
Lots of bouncing around to go...something to watch, at least.
I wasn't even looking at specific timing too much since the ingredients were fairly similar on the overnight guidance. Considering the propensity of warm fronts to get hung up by the lake this time of year, the 00z Euro had a plausible look to it. Plus if the wave is lower amplitude, you'd be more likely to have a weaker sfc low initially and gradual intensification more conducive to slower northward movement of the warm front.

That's probably even too specific at 6+ days out, though using typical early spring setups as a guide, it's certainly more common for warm fronts to get hung up farther south than for them to rapidly surge north.




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19 hours ago, Harry said:

 

You do know what our normals are? Hoping you are right but I am not seeing it. 

I'm well aware of what our normals are, and all of next week looks to be above that, with Thursday in particular looking to be very mild for the region. Hell, you may not have a daytime high below 50 for the entirety of next week.

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2 hours ago, rainsucks said:

I'm well aware of what our normals are, and all of next week looks to be above that, with Thursday in particular looking to be very mild for the region. Hell, you may not have a daytime high below 50 for the entirety of next week.

We going to be well below average on the 18th of the 19th. The map you shared was for the 18th-24th, which will very likely finish colder than average even if the period ends warmer than average.

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3 hours ago, rainsucks said:

I'm well aware of what our normals are, and all of next week looks to be above that, with Thursday in particular looking to be very mild for the region. Hell, you may not have a daytime high below 50 for the entirety of next week.

 

Nws has 45 Monday, 50 Tuesday, 49 wednesday, and 53 Thursday with a cold front incoming. 

Normal high 50-51.. 

 

You were saying? 

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