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Spring 2023 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Chicago Storm
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Really annoying the end of the heat looks to be another backdoor cold front with the ridge retrograding west.  Fat chance of rain with that kind of pattern constantly repeating.  Boredom-fest + drought continues into June.  :(  Probably just going to stop posting.  Really sad that mild winter + boring spring/summer is the new normal for Michigan in a warming climate.  Ugh.

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17 minutes ago, Harry said:

This pattern can move tf on.. Thankfully the humidity is staying low.. 

the sheer amount of days in a row with sunny or mostly sunny conditions is definitely getting up there. Loving that tho but I know it’s really bad in the long run

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4 hours ago, frostfern said:

The high plains had activity for him.  No tornadoes, but there has been scattered high-based supercell action most days.  Only the midwest has been totally dead.

Exactly I had a great time the 3 days I chased and hung out with many friends. 

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Beyond this weekend, there is an increasingly evident signal for anew closed upper-level low to emerge somewhere over the northeasternquadrant of the CONUS as the Omega block attempts to re-establishitself. 



it's all over folks, lot getting ready 2 punt until july

There's the cutoff low that may set up far enough west to bring beneficial rain out here early next week, but that's more of a crapshoot at this range.

Then out toward day 10, operational models are hinting at a return toward westerly flow aloft shown on the ensembles at that range. Later in the ensemble runs, a more classic position of the mean summertime 500 mb ridge is shown, centered over Texas. If that occurs, could be favorable for MCS activity in the subforum.

The precip. and evaporation hole will be getting progressively deeper until then, especially if we miss out on the cutoff low early next week, and won't be easy to quickly dig out of. However, the potential for the persistent high amplitude blocky pattern to finally erode offers some hope for more regular rain/thunder chances returning.



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19 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Bring it on we can't waste any more time getting LM to swimming temperatures

I went to Lake Huron yesterday. Water was calm and was refreshing by the shore but once I swam out to about 6ft deep the water on the bottom was ice cold. Definitely want the lakes other than Erie and inland lakes to warm up!

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That heat dome is bad for Iowa bug good for MBY if a ridge rider MCS pattern can happen.  Always the ever present SW whiff risk here though with warm front getting hung up on I-80/I-90 regardless of what models say.  Ready to start pulling my hair out.

East winds and either dry weather or stratiform rain for us.
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4 hours ago, SolidIcewx said:

I went to Lake Huron yesterday. Water was calm and was refreshing by the shore but once I swam out to about 6ft deep the water on the bottom was ice cold. Definitely want the lakes other than Erie and inland lakes to warm up!

Yeah, I've been checking Lake Michigan temperatures daily. It's the new snow storm tracking, if not a little anemic B). I'm hoping if we get legit heat wave or two within the next month then we could make a run for at least 70°F.

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50 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Here we are at mid June and models continue to show an endless stream of rex blocks and omega blocks.  It's quite depressing.

Maybe this is what climate change will end up giving us.  What has been happening in winter and now in summer.  A wet monsoon and dry monsoon season.

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