Spring 2023 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Chicago Storm]

1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said:

feel bad for my guy with the bad timing, chasing of all kinds is really rich or retired man's game and thus not 4 me

i'll be out on guiding a tour June 7-14th.

hoping things can break by then, at least somewhat.

[WestMichigan]

Continuing the theme of dry

It is likely that we`ll finish May without another drop of rain.
Assuming this holds, our climatological station at Grand Rapids
will finish the driest month of May since the Dust Bowl of the
1930s. May 1936 registered 0.72" of total rainfall, which is the
driest May on record, while this May is only a tad wetter at
0.84", which would rank 2nd driest at Grand Rapids. Other sites
such as Lansing and Muskegon, assuming no more rain, would end up
with the 5th driest May on record.

[outflow]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

feel bad for my guy with the bad timing, chasing of all kinds is really rich or retired man's game and thus not 4 me

At least as you get into later may and June you usually have daily activity off the front range to chase as a backup if there isn't any targets further east in the plains. It might not be high end tornado potential but you could still get lucky and also have some spectacular structure shots.  

You try to plan a April or early May vacation you may end up with a week of cool and dry after a cold front plows Into the gulf the day before you get out there.

If I ever were to have the chance to dueba plains vacation it would definitely be the last week of May up to mid june

[A-L-E-K]

cornbelt crusher drought 2023

we hate 2 see it

[A-L-E-K]

p weird look overall, bone dry obv but def not hot and loaded with top shelf days in the 70s, so could easily get worse

[frostfern]

10 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

cornbelt crusher drought 2023

we hate 2 see it

No organized rain producer anywhere in the long range.  Anything that does fall is scattered airmass t-storms late in the period i.e some places could have zero rain due to hit-miss pattern.

[A-L-E-K]

Light a at the end of the tunnel maybe?

[Spartman]

 

[A-L-E-K]

Extended 70s and sunny as far as the eye can see

[A-L-E-K]

Euro still bone dry yikes

[Baum]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

Euro still bone dry yikes

it's over. my yard a week from now.

[SolidIcewx]

27 minutes ago, Baum said:

it's over. my yard a week from now.

Im using my sprinkler tonight on the sun baked section of my yard. If I don’t it will end up like lawns in the desert

[Baum]

1 hour ago, SolidIcewx said:

Im using my sprinkler tonight on the sun baked section of my yard. If I don’t it will end up like lawns in the desert

just came back from hardware store and bought the most heavy duty thing they had. Gonna need it. The revenge of our ole banned drought loving guy is coming to fruition.

[hawkeye_wx]

On 5/27/2023 at 1:00 PM, A-L-E-K said:

Light a at the end of the tunnel maybe?

It's a long tunnel and a dim light.

[cyclone77]

5 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

It's a long tunnel and a dim light.

We'll probably get 8" of rain in July.  

[Baum]

7 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

We'll probably get 8" of rain in July.  

in 2.5 hours

[frostfern]

12 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

It's a long tunnel and a dim light.

Black hole for here.

[fluoronium]

I chose a great spring to plant an orchard.

[Powerball]

On 5/25/2023 at 12:40 PM, SchaumburgStormer said:

From LOT's morning AFD

In fact, if no rain falls within the next 6
days, May 2023 will be the 2nd driest on record in Chicago beyond
1992 when 0.30" of rain fell.

Ewww, and we know what came of the 1992 Summer...

 

[rainsucks]

8 hours ago, Powerball said:

Ewww, and we know what came of the 1992 Summer...

 

yeah, because of Pinatubo

[rainsucks]

likely overdone, but this would easily result in widespread 100s across the region, especially when taking into consideration how dry it’s been and will continue to be.

Idk why there’s such a big disagreement between the models tho as the GFS shows something completely different around this timeframe.

[Chicago Storm]

likely overdone, but this would easily result in widespread 100s across the region, especially when taking into consideration how dry it’s been and will continue to be.

18-20C at 850mb isn’t gonna do it, not even close.


.

[A-L-E-K]

89d

[hardypalmguy]

Euro has ZERO rain for eastern half of WI next 10 days. 

[A-L-E-K]

u on lake or well water up there?

[hardypalmguy]

13 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

u on lake or well water up there?

lake

[Stebo]

On 5/25/2023 at 3:50 PM, A-L-E-K said:

feel bad for my guy with the bad timing, chasing of all kinds is really rich or retired man's game and thus not 4 me

I saw plenty of stuff and had a good time, picturesque storms every day I chased. Contrary to the asshole above your post, it wasn't a bust.

[A-L-E-K]

glad u had a nice time despite the pattern friend

[Jonger]

On 5/25/2023 at 3:47 PM, WaryWarren said:

Poor Stebs and his Bustcation.

It's tough out there

[frostfern]

1 hour ago, Jonger said:

It's tough out there

The high plains had activity for him.  No tornadoes, but there has been scattered high-based supercell action most days.  Only the midwest has been totally dead.