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March 13-14th Nor'easter Threat


NJwx85
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9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yup but a bit further north. Also warmer given the la Nina strength (2000/2001 was a little below average snowfall).

2000-01 was a very good winter with almost 3 feet of snow on the entire season.  The March 2001 scenario was bound to repeat at some point lol, it's why I've been talking about it for a week.

 

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36 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I still contend we had no shot with the overall configuration over north America this winter. 

thats what we've been saying all winter

did you see how tacoman has been shouting in glee because of how great it's been out west and how bad it's been here?

I've been tempted to tell him no one outside of New Mexico cares about New Mexico weather.

 

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2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

2000-01 was a very good winter with almost 3 feet of snow on the entire season.  The March 2001 scenario was bound to repeat at some point lol, it's why I've been talking about it for a week.

 

Yeah you are correct was a good winter in a 5 year terrible stretch. I think this will be North and west of March 2001. Capture later and west of that one.

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34 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah, I mean the entire winter was an extreme la Nina setup. I got excited yesterday but should have known. How many winters does it snow on the beach in California and give us a good winter. 

I am very optimistic for the coming years. 

well the first half of winter was an extreme el nino set up.

California usually gets shut out in la ninas

it shows ENSO doesn't really matter that much

 

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6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

2000-01 was a very good winter with almost 3 feet of snow on the entire season.  The March 2001 scenario was bound to repeat at some point lol, it's why I've been talking about it for a week.

 

At least we were let down a little sooner this time.  I remember a lot of models showing that we were locked and loaded even within 24 hours of the March 2001 event.  I remember the worm starting to turn late on Saturday night of that weekend.  Can recall a met on WCBS 880 around 1 AM saying they might have to drastically change the forecast based on new models he was looking at...and it unraveled from there.

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Just now, nycwinter said:

did you really expect huge snow totals in the middle of march in  the climate change era?

I honestly do not think climate change had much to do with it. West coast continuous troughing all year kept all the cold that way. This would have failed in 1925.

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13 minutes ago, Metasequoia said:

I thought the GFS and CMC were close to something decent for NYC. If the low bombs out 6 or so hours earlier then maybe the CCB clobbers.

Agree I’m not really sure why it became negative central because of the Ukie. I guess everyone has different ways of forecasting, personally my opinion hasn’t changed much, it will if euro trends bad. 
 

it also depends what peoples expectations are, you’re not getting 2 feet in March in NYC no matter what lol but I think a high end up to about 6-12 inches is still possible. 

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5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I honestly do not think climate change had much to do with it. West coast continuous troughing all year kept all the cold that way. This would have failed in 1925.

Maybe not, climate change has been decreasing snowfall in many parts of the world (like the Alps), so it was bound to happen here sooner or later.

Look, if you really love snow that much, you should live in the mountains.  In the Poconos we had 6 inches of snow from the last storm.

 

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5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Maybe not, climate change has been decreasing snowfall in many parts of the world (like the Alps), so it was bound to happen here sooner or later.

Look, if you really love snow that much, you should live in the mountains.  In the Poconos we had 6 inches of snow from the last storm.

 

If climate change had such a great effect that it would cause these storms to fail (even though they did not fail in 2018 or 2019), then you would see it across the us not just the northeast. You would not see flakes on the beach of Cali anymore. 

I don't want to go down the CC path as people are passionate about it and a lot of the time to fuel their own agendas. It is getting warmer overall but it's not that drastic yet.

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5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Maybe not, climate change has been decreasing snowfall in many parts of the world (like the Alps), so it was bound to happen here sooner or later.

Look, if you really love snow that much, you should live in the mountains.  In the Poconos we had 6 inches of snow from the last storm.

 

Agree but easier said than done, I’ve wanted to leave the NYC area most of my life but circumstances made it difficult. I agree though complaining about lack of snow in a place not favorable to get snow is not worth it. 

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18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it's stuff like that that makes me want humans to start controlling the weather, that would have been the first storm I'd want  to jackpot us lol.

Nature is so frustrating sometimes.

 

 

That hype for that one was incredible.  My neighbors were watching the Weather Channel for Paul Kocin's updates and were actually becoming scared when hearing the forecast.  I worked in a ShopRite at the time while going to college and I never saw the store like that.  You literally could not move in the front end where people would get in line to check out at one of the registers.  Customers fighting for spots in the parking lot, flipping out and buying anything left on the shelf, etc.  It was a surreal experience.  The store normally closed at 9 PM on Sundays but we didn't get out of there until around midnight because it took so long to get the customers checked out and to clean up.

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2 minutes ago, matt8204 said:

That hype for that one was incredible.  My neighbors were watching the Weather Channel for Paul Kocin's updates and were actually becoming scared when hearing the forecast.  I worked in a ShopRite at the time while going to college and I never saw the store like that.  You literally could not move in the front end where people would get in line to check out at one of the registers.  Customers fighting for spots in the parking lot, flipping out and buying anything left on the shelf, etc.  It was a surreal experience.  The store normally closed at 9 PM on Sundays but we didn't get out of there until around midnight because it took so long to get the customers checked out and to clean up.

It was being advertized on national media for a week in advance, I remember seeing forecasts for 2-3 feet of snow for the entire east coast megalopolis region on The Today Show lol

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14 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

If climate change had such a great effect that it would cause these storms to fail (even though they did not fail in 2018 or 2019), then you would see it across the us not just the northeast. You would not see flakes on the beach of Cali anymore. 

I don't want to go down the CC path as people are passionate about it and a lot of the time to fuel their own agendas. It is getting warmer overall but it's not that drastic yet.

Thats not how it works though, climate change means more extremes so more of these atmospheric river events.

One thing is clear though, for us specifically it means a smaller more concentrated JF snowfall season, so I never bite into very late or very early season events anymore.

One rule I steadfastly follow, if JF are bad then our snowfall season is screwed.

 

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