Winterweatherlover Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Nice to see more snow out in the ocean than on the coastal plain (sarcasm). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Could be a real nice week for the I84 corridor if it doesn’t trend east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 10, 2023 Author Share Posted March 10, 2023 18 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: East and later capture. So a NNE win. About to tap out of this one. This would be the March 2001 scenario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: This would be the March 2001 scenario. Pretty depressing with the best MJO we have had in years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: This would be the March 2001 scenario. Yup but a bit further north. Also warmer given the la Nina strength (2000/2001 was a little below average snowfall). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just now, MJO812 said: Pretty depressing with the best MJO we have had in years Shows you how important the overall pattern is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Shows you how important the overall pattern is. Agree We can see some snow but we will miss big totals. Thank God it isn't January or February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Yup but a bit further north. Also warmer given the la Nina strength (2000/2001 was a little below average snowfall). 2000-01 was a very good winter with almost 3 feet of snow on the entire season. The March 2001 scenario was bound to repeat at some point lol, it's why I've been talking about it for a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Agree We can see some snow but we will miss big totals. Thank God it isn't January or February. why? we'd have a lot more snow out of this in a real winter month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Shows you how important the overall pattern is. this is what happens when the rest of the season has sucked too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 I thought the GFS and CMC were close to something decent for NYC. If the low bombs out 6 or so hours earlier then maybe the CCB clobbers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 36 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I still contend we had no shot with the overall configuration over north America this winter. thats what we've been saying all winter did you see how tacoman has been shouting in glee because of how great it's been out west and how bad it's been here? I've been tempted to tell him no one outside of New Mexico cares about New Mexico weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: 2000-01 was a very good winter with almost 3 feet of snow on the entire season. The March 2001 scenario was bound to repeat at some point lol, it's why I've been talking about it for a week. Yeah you are correct was a good winter in a 5 year terrible stretch. I think this will be North and west of March 2001. Capture later and west of that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 34 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Yeah, I mean the entire winter was an extreme la Nina setup. I got excited yesterday but should have known. How many winters does it snow on the beach in California and give us a good winter. I am very optimistic for the coming years. well the first half of winter was an extreme el nino set up. California usually gets shut out in la ninas it shows ENSO doesn't really matter that much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt8204 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: 2000-01 was a very good winter with almost 3 feet of snow on the entire season. The March 2001 scenario was bound to repeat at some point lol, it's why I've been talking about it for a week. At least we were let down a little sooner this time. I remember a lot of models showing that we were locked and loaded even within 24 hours of the March 2001 event. I remember the worm starting to turn late on Saturday night of that weekend. Can recall a met on WCBS 880 around 1 AM saying they might have to drastically change the forecast based on new models he was looking at...and it unraveled from there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: why? we'd have a lot more snow out of this in a real winter month That's what I'm saying 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 35 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: This would be the March 2001 scenario. Well at least we'll know ahead of time Bring on the 60s & 70s 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 19 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Agree We can see some snow but we will miss big totals. Thank God it isn't January or February. did you really expect huge snow totals in the middle of march in the climate change era? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just now, nycwinter said: did you really expect huge snow totals in the middle of march in the climate change era? I honestly do not think climate change had much to do with it. West coast continuous troughing all year kept all the cold that way. This would have failed in 1925. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 13 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: I thought the GFS and CMC were close to something decent for NYC. If the low bombs out 6 or so hours earlier then maybe the CCB clobbers. Agree I’m not really sure why it became negative central because of the Ukie. I guess everyone has different ways of forecasting, personally my opinion hasn’t changed much, it will if euro trends bad. it also depends what peoples expectations are, you’re not getting 2 feet in March in NYC no matter what lol but I think a high end up to about 6-12 inches is still possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I honestly do not think climate change had much to do with it. West coast continuous troughing all year kept all the cold that way. This would have failed in 1925. Maybe not, climate change has been decreasing snowfall in many parts of the world (like the Alps), so it was bound to happen here sooner or later. Look, if you really love snow that much, you should live in the mountains. In the Poconos we had 6 inches of snow from the last storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Maybe not, climate change has been decreasing snowfall in many parts of the world (like the Alps), so it was bound to happen here sooner or later. Look, if you really love snow that much, you should live in the mountains. In the Poconos we had 6 inches of snow from the last storm. If climate change had such a great effect that it would cause these storms to fail (even though they did not fail in 2018 or 2019), then you would see it across the us not just the northeast. You would not see flakes on the beach of Cali anymore. I don't want to go down the CC path as people are passionate about it and a lot of the time to fuel their own agendas. It is getting warmer overall but it's not that drastic yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Maybe not, climate change has been decreasing snowfall in many parts of the world (like the Alps), so it was bound to happen here sooner or later. Look, if you really love snow that much, you should live in the mountains. In the Poconos we had 6 inches of snow from the last storm. Agree but easier said than done, I’ve wanted to leave the NYC area most of my life but circumstances made it difficult. I agree though complaining about lack of snow in a place not favorable to get snow is not worth it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt8204 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: it's stuff like that that makes me want humans to start controlling the weather, that would have been the first storm I'd want to jackpot us lol. Nature is so frustrating sometimes. That hype for that one was incredible. My neighbors were watching the Weather Channel for Paul Kocin's updates and were actually becoming scared when hearing the forecast. I worked in a ShopRite at the time while going to college and I never saw the store like that. You literally could not move in the front end where people would get in line to check out at one of the registers. Customers fighting for spots in the parking lot, flipping out and buying anything left on the shelf, etc. It was a surreal experience. The store normally closed at 9 PM on Sundays but we didn't get out of there until around midnight because it took so long to get the customers checked out and to clean up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 EURO pbp anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, matt8204 said: That hype for that one was incredible. My neighbors were watching the Weather Channel for Paul Kocin's updates and were actually becoming scared when hearing the forecast. I worked in a ShopRite at the time while going to college and I never saw the store like that. You literally could not move in the front end where people would get in line to check out at one of the registers. Customers fighting for spots in the parking lot, flipping out and buying anything left on the shelf, etc. It was a surreal experience. The store normally closed at 9 PM on Sundays but we didn't get out of there until around midnight because it took so long to get the customers checked out and to clean up. It was being advertized on national media for a week in advance, I remember seeing forecasts for 2-3 feet of snow for the entire east coast megalopolis region on The Today Show lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 14 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: If climate change had such a great effect that it would cause these storms to fail (even though they did not fail in 2018 or 2019), then you would see it across the us not just the northeast. You would not see flakes on the beach of Cali anymore. I don't want to go down the CC path as people are passionate about it and a lot of the time to fuel their own agendas. It is getting warmer overall but it's not that drastic yet. Thats not how it works though, climate change means more extremes so more of these atmospheric river events. One thing is clear though, for us specifically it means a smaller more concentrated JF snowfall season, so I never bite into very late or very early season events anymore. One rule I steadfastly follow, if JF are bad then our snowfall season is screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 10, 2023 Author Share Posted March 10, 2023 12z Euro Monday morning. Light precip breaking out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 10, 2023 Author Share Posted March 10, 2023 Monday afternoon, pretty much rain everywhere. Seems warmer than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Compared to 0z Euro is, so far, east and 10 mb weaker Edit: Next frame hr 84 in roughly the same spot but 7mb weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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