wilsonvoid1 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 12Z Icon has perfect track FWIW. I dont buy the precip type on pivotal with that track and intensity. i agree, models always underestimate the dynamic side of cooling. Though it is possible this could end up being all rain for the city, the suburbs will most likely get a lot of snow with that track and intensity. I am not giving up and i'm optimistic with the EPS and euro on our side for at least a few inches.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 6 minutes ago, mikem81 said: 12Z Icon has perfect track FWIW. I dont buy the precip type on pivotal with that track and intensity. That’s too far east. It’s also captured and tugged N too late, bombs too late because of the issues with the PNA and southern stream gets out too far ahead. We need the dynamics and height falls to happen earlier and further west. We don’t have preexisting cold air to rely on so the dynamics will have to do it. That’s a great run for Boston not us. We get light to at times heavier rain from that look, maybe wraparound snow at the end from the bombed upper low that happens too late. I’m glad to be proven wrong but so much has to go right for us near the coast to do well from this. We need it to bomb early but not so early it flings the low north across our backyard, and in a way that dynamics are maxed. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 12z gfs looks like it might be better downstream for us… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 GFS had duel lows….clearly no model agreement whatsoever at this point. Odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Big time trend in right direction on gfs, still playing catch-up it seems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 This really does have a bit of 2010 snowicane look with a low tracking almost due north or possibly even slightly NW. We could snow while Boston rains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Looked like the GFS took another step closer to the Euro. That second eastern low robs some moisture and energy from our area though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 12z GFS was convoluted but that doesn’t mean a whole lot right now. Hard to parse a trend from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: 12z GFS was convoluted but that doesn’t mean a whole lot right now. Hard to parse a trend from it. It had a low over eastern LI and 2 feet of snow in the HV. How is that not a clear west trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 I would say if that secondary piece stuck with the flow of the northern low that would have been a much better run for us than previous GFS runs. We’re still in the game at this point and that’s all we can ask for. If euro holds its ground with a monster hit for us I think our odds increase. It hasn’t waivered. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 CMC east so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, romba said: CMC east so far Yes east but stronger, still inside the BM zone at 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 6 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Yes east but stronger, still inside the BM zone at 90. Greater intensification, but weaker rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, romba said: Greater intensification, but weaker rates Cmc seems stuck on 90 but the key would be does it track north or northeast from there, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 20 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: It had a low over eastern LI and 2 feet of snow in the HV. How is that not a clear west trend? 2 lows through ct and South of LI that persist for too long. Where the snow falls isn’t super important on a run 3.5 days out. I don’t think this is what the storm will look like at least in terms of the capture. more to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Cmc a little too far east for what we need but probavly better to have it a little east than a little west at this range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 13 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Yes east but stronger, still inside the BM zone at 90. Cleaner capture so this is what we should be looking for. Still will move around of course over the next 3 days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 12z CMC run is a little lower in snow totals vs. the 00z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 15 minutes ago, forkyfork said: this could easily wind up jackpotting maine Stole from NE forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Stole from NE forum. He seems to think it’s coming east. We’ll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 7 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: 12z CMC run is a little lower in snow totals vs. the 00z run Makes sense with a further east track. It didn’t shift by too much though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: He seems to think it’s coming east. We’ll see. East and later capture. So a NNE win. About to tap out of this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 The UKMET has, unfortunately, backed off from big snows around the NYC area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Ukie way warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The UKMET has, unfortunately, backed off from big snows around the NYC area. I still contend we had no shot with the overall configuration over north America this winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wilsonvoid1 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 ukmet is the second best model and it does this. Not sure what to believe but trend isn't our friend, if the euro shows this trend more east i am throwing in the towel for this winter.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 minute ago, wilsonvoid1 said: ukmet is the second best model and it does this. Not sure what to believe but trend isn't our friend, if the euro shows this trend more east i am throwing in the towel for this winter. . Yeah, I mean the entire winter was an extreme la Nina setup. I got excited yesterday but should have known. How many winters does it snow on the beach in California and give us a good winter. I am very optimistic for the coming years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: East and later capture. So a NNE win. About to tap out of this one. I’ll wait on 12z Euro. If it trends bad I’ll lose interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 5 minutes ago, wilsonvoid1 said: ukmet is the second best model and it does this. Not sure what to believe but trend isn't our friend, if the euro shows this trend more east i am throwing in the towel for this winter. . It really doesn’t seem like the 2nd best model. Idk the statistics but it seems like a lousy model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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