March 13-14th Nor'easter Threat

[Nibor]

 

[North and West]

There is still blocking even though it's decaying

My advanced forecast system is to take the middle between your forecast hope and his forecast nope.


.

[snowman19]

EPS ensemble members for NYC:

This storm has a lot more potential and there is sufficient time for things to change significantly. At this point in time, the ensemble guidance is suggesting this could be a potentially massive snowstorm well inland (i.e., Albany, Binghamton, Concord, Scranton) and at higher elevations (Catskills, Poconos, etc.). About one-in-four ensemble members shows Boston with 10" or more. Th operational ECMWF is sort of an outlier for the coastal plain in depicting around 10" for NYC.
That's where the ensembles stand now. Things remain subject to significant change.

This is probably a 24+ storm inland. Question is how far inland?

[EastonSN+]

Really losing my confidence in this system.

We need it to deepen early enough and close enough to allow for enough dynamic cooling (i.e. under the CCB).

Plus not a peep from Forky.

 

[Winterweatherlover]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Really losing my confidence in this system.

We need it to deepen early enough and close enough to allow for enough dynamic cooling (i.e. under the CCB).

Plus not a peep from Forky.

 

Interesting. I’m more optimistic than you with this. Usually the Euro does well with these bigger storms and it’s been consistent. 

[Winterweatherlover]

7 hours ago, Nibor said:

You can see even though the SLP tracks closer the 925 temperatures are colder.

Better dynamics. We really need it right in Forkys BM spot. Too Far east is as bad as too far west since we don’t have cold air. 

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Really losing my confidence in this system.

We need it to deepen early enough and close enough to allow for enough dynamic cooling (i.e. under the CCB).

Plus not a peep from Forky.

 

I've been over this winter for a long time so whatever happens happens. We're very likely done after this threat minus a fluke storm in latter March or early April. 

There's reason to believe in a more tucked in, dynamic system. The seasonal trend over the past few years has been just that aided by very warm sst anomalies off the northeast coast. 

[Winterweatherlover]

2 hours ago, Dan76 said:

This?

Yes it’s improved. Don’t get caught up in the precip types look at low placement. We need this strong and over the BM and people will be happy, if not they won’t be. I really am not taking the gfs very seriously it’s too Far East and trending toward other models. 

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I've been over this winter for a long time so whatever happens happens. We're very likely done after this threat minus a fluke storm in latter March or early April. 

There's reason to believe in a more tucked in, dynamic system. The seasonal trend over the past few years has been just that aided by very warm sst anomalies off the northeast coast. 

Yeah can help us here unlike December.

This sst temps may be around for a few years before cycling cooler.

[EastonSN+]

13 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Interesting. I’m more optimistic than you with this. Usually the Euro does well with these bigger storms and it’s been consistent. 

These are my reasons and I hope I am wrong.

1.) The storm has to track almost perfectly

2.) The storm has to intensify at just the right time

3.) TWC has all rain even up here

4.) Don's stats - we have to break normalcy

5.) Forky always chimes in when there is a legit shot

6.) Epic record breaking west coast winter. All the cold air has been bottled up there and has created the opposite record effect here. There is some cold to tap but again we have to sit under the CCB

7.) NS dominance. Per standard Nina operating procedures the NS has dominated and helped kill our December. This is hurting tonight and will effect temps for this storm

Now I am usually 99% optimistic,  however at this juncture I need to see some consistency across more than just the UKMET and EURO. 

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

These are my reasons and I hope I am wrong.

1.) The storm has to track almost perfectly

2.) The storm has to intensify at just the right time

3.) TWC has all rain even up here

4.) Don's stats - we have to break normalcy

5.) Forky always chimes in when there is a legit shot

6.) Epic record breaking west coast winter. All the cold air has been bottled up there and has created the opposite record effect here. There is some cold to tap but again we have to sit under the CCB

7.) NS dominance. Per standard Nina operating procedures the NS has dominated and helped kill our December. This is hurting tonight and will effect temps for this storm

Now I am usually 99% optimistic,  however at this juncture I need to see some consistency across more than just the UKMET and EURO. 

The UK just had a bunch of snow...kinda late for them and don't know if it is due to any anomalies affecting us, but it seems like it wants to snow everywhere but here. March storms almost always fail to deliver for a lot of us even when they are frozen, so watching this and fully expecting it will likely be rain if anything. 

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

The UK just had a bunch of snow...kinda late for them and don't know if it is due to any anomalies affecting us, but it seems like it wants to snow everywhere but here. March storms almost always fail to deliver for a lot of us even when they are frozen, so watching this and fully expecting it will likely be rain if anything. 

March is not the issue IMO, it really starts with what has happened all year out west. This is their 95/96 start to finish record breaking year.

I have no doubt we will have another March/April period like 17/18, 18/19, 91/92, 95/96, 02/03, 12/13, 14/15 etc etc. It just will NEVER happen in a record west coast year like this one.

 

[EastonSN+]

Red taggers - please prove me wrong/talk me out of pessimism for this storm.

 

 

[Winterweatherlover]

14 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

These are my reasons and I hope I am wrong.

1.) The storm has to track almost perfectly

2.) The storm has to intensify at just the right time

3.) TWC has all rain even up here

4.) Don's stats - we have to break normalcy

5.) Forky always chimes in when there is a legit shot

6.) Epic record breaking west coast winter. All the cold air has been bottled up there and has created the opposite record effect here. There is some cold to tap but again we have to sit under the CCB

7.) NS dominance. Per standard Nina operating procedures the NS has dominated and helped kill our December. This is hurting tonight and will effect temps for this storm

Now I am usually 99% optimistic,  however at this juncture I need to see some consistency across more than just the UKMET and EURO. 

Yea the twc forecast this far out I don’t think matters much, all the rest are very valid points. We obviously need close to perfection for this to work but the Euro/Ukie combo is showing that inside of 5 days so I’m cautiously optimistic but recognizing this could easily fail. 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, Winterweatherlover said:

Yea the twc forecast this far out I don’t think matters much, all the rest are very valid points. We obviously need close to perfection for this to work but the Euro/Ukie combo is showing that inside of 5 days so I’m cautiously optimistic but recognizing this could easily fail. 

I think the lack of red-tagger opinions is a huge red flag too.

[Nibor]

9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Red taggers - please prove me wrong/talk me out of pessimism for this storm.

 

 

[North and West]

March is not the issue IMO, it really starts with what has happened all year out west. This is their 95/96 start to finish record breaking year.
I have no doubt we will have another March/April period like 17/18, 18/19, 91/92, 95/96, 02/03, 12/13, 14/15 etc etc. It just will NEVER happen in a record west coast year like this one.
 

.

[EastonSN+]

12 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Red taggers - please prove me wrong/talk me out of pessimism for this storm.

 

 

Crickets.

[mikem81]

43 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

These are my reasons and I hope I am wrong.

1.) The storm has to track almost perfectly

2.) The storm has to intensify at just the right time

3.) TWC has all rain even up here

4.) Don's stats - we have to break normalcy

5.) Forky always chimes in when there is a legit shot

6.) Epic record breaking west coast winter. All the cold air has been bottled up there and has created the opposite record effect here. There is some cold to tap but again we have to sit under the CCB

7.) NS dominance. Per standard Nina operating procedures the NS has dominated and helped kill our December. This is hurting tonight and will effect temps for this storm

Now I am usually 99% optimistic,  however at this juncture I need to see some consistency across more than just the UKMET and EURO. 

Reasons 1 and 2 are all you need plus add that its March. Need perfect track that starts far east enough and get captured by northern stream before passing LI and gets tucked in but not too close. Its basically last night's UKIE run and maybe some EPS members

[Winterweatherlover]

I’m losing hope too possibly jaded by the bad trends of todays storm but it just seems like it’s not the right winter for the coast to see snow. The RGEM looks terrible. Hopefully at least the interior parts of the subforum can get something worthwhile. 

[romba]

*Puts on Doorman Costume*:

Some will win

some will lose

I choose the former

what about you?

[winterwx21]

4 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I’m losing hope too possibly jaded by the bad trends of todays storm but it just seems like it’s not the right winter for the coast to see snow. The RGEM looks terrible. Hopefully at least the interior parts of the subforum can get something worthwhile. 

Yeah it's hard to be optimistic about this when the RGEM has rain even in northwest NJ at hour 84. Just not much cold air in place. We need a bombing low in the perfect spot just to get rain changing over to heavy snow. Not impossible, but the odds of that happening seem pretty low. Last night's UKMET and Euro give us a little hope though, so we'll continue to watch it. 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

This is probably a 24+ storm inland. Question is how far inland?

Yes. I agree that there will probably be 24" amounts in some inland areas. Central and Upstate New York into parts of adjacent New England might be plausible candidates right now. There could still be changes.

[mikem81]

12Z Icon has perfect track FWIW. I dont buy the precip type on pivotal with that track and intensity.

 

[Winterweatherlover]

15 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah it's hard to be optimistic about this when the RGEM has rain even in northwest NJ at hour 84. Just not much cold air in place. We need a bombing low in the perfect spot just to get rain changing over to heavy snow. Not impossible, but the odds of that happening seem pretty low. Last night's UKMET and Euro give us a little hope though, so we'll continue to watch it. 

Everything has to basically go perfect for this to work. Euro/Ukie are showing that but even minor changes will ruin it so confidence is low but also I’m not writing it off. 

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, mikem81 said:

12Z Icon has perfect track FWIW. I dont buy the precip type on pivotal with that track and intensity.

 

To me that’s not a perfect track, too far east.

[matt8204]

I want to keep tracking this but my practical side keeps screaming "Let it go; it's just not our year".  Daylight savings beginning this weekend is going to start putting me in spring mode also.

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

To me that’s not a perfect track, too far east.

100% correct. We need it further west.

[Winterweatherlover]

1 minute ago, matt8204 said:

I want to keep tracking this but my practical side keeps screaming "Let it go; it's just not our year".  Daylight savings beginning this weekend is going to start putting me in spring mode also.

I’m exhausted lol unless I see sub 990 lows in Forkys zone I know not to be interested. Unfortunately or fortunately the Euro and Ukie are showing that so that’s keeping me tracking this. 

[Winterweatherlover]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

100% correct. We need it further west.

I will say seeing how far east some of these models are is making me think an inland runner is not too likely.