brooklynwx99 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 the taller PNA allows for the NS lobe to drop into the trough. leads to an earlier phase and way more cold air getting infused. beautiful run 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Why does the surface look weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Wow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, kingbaus said: Why does the surface look weird Uh ? It's blocked and has no where to go . Possible solution with the MJO deeply in 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just now, MJO812 said: Uh ? It's blocked and has no where to go . Possible solution with the MJO deeply in 8. I’ll take your guys word for it. I just thought it looked weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 9 minutes ago, kingbaus said: Why does the surface look weird 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Uh ? It's blocked and has no where to go . Possible solution with the MJO deeply in 8. He's talking surface maps presentation. Don't worry about that just yet. Big improvements. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, Nibor said: He's talking surface maps presentation. Don't worry about that just yet. Big improvements. Ok so it’s most likely the euro is overdoing temps with that set up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, kingbaus said: Ok so it’s most likely the euro is overdoing temps with that set up. yeah, 925mb is more useful and those temps are definitely cold enough 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: yeah, 925mb is more useful and those temps are definitely cold enough They're boarder line warm NYC south and east at the onset of the storm but definitely colder than the 0z run. A step in the right direction. Good trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 You can see even though the SLP tracks closer the 925 temperatures are colder. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 minute ago, Nibor said: You can see even though the SLP tracks closer the 925 temperatures are colder. The set up is HECS like or close to it. Really excited. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 31 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the taller PNA allows for the NS lobe to drop into the trough. leads to an earlier phase and way more cold air getting infused. beautiful run Hopefully that's a trend as it would keep getting colder as we get closer. The track could tuck in a bit more and we could still end up colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Hopefully we can keep getting improvements from the PNA, we could all use this storm after all the misery this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 We'll see. Trend looks pretty strongly west today. If that continues into tomorrow I think it's pretty clear where this is heading.This is going to be 1-2 feet + of snow inland. Question is how far inland? Rockland/Bergen/Westchester/Passaic inland (option 1)? Or Sussex/Orange/Putnam/Ulster/I-84 north inland (Option 2)? My guess is the west trend is real and it’s option #2. I don’t think NYC, coast and LI get much out of it (either option) and if a west trend continues neither will Westchester/Rockland/Bergen/Passaic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 EPS is really impressive. It's what you want to see to get snows in mid March. Additionally if the storm is dynamic enough, which this is likely to be, then even a tucked in solution could yield snows as long as the storm is east of you. Also a rare longitude storm perhaps. I could see NYC and especially just N/W getting more snow than parts of SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 EPS is really impressive. It's what you want to see to get snows in mid March. Additionally if the storm is dynamic enough, which this is likely to be, then even a tucked in solution could yield snows as long as the storm is east of you. Also a rare longitude storm perhaps. I could see NYC and especially just N/W getting more snow than parts of SNE. This is going to be an inland snowstorm. NYC/coast/LI are not going to see much at all IMO. Rockland/Westchester/Bergen/Passaic might not either. I can see this easily becoming an I-84 north special 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: This is going to be an inland snowstorm. NYC/coast/LI are not going to see much at all IMO. Rockland/Westchester/Bergen/Passaic might not either. I can see this easily becoming an I-84 north special Is there any reasoning behind this? I'm also skeptical given historic precedent but I can't deny what some models show right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Is there any reasoning behind this? His name sez it all..no explanation needed. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Is there any reasoning behind this? I'm also skeptical given historic precedent but I can't deny what some models show right now. The northern branch keeps dropping in earlier with every run, that keeps up and it will definitely get tugged west, which I think happens. I think it ultimately runs inland 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 15 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The northern branch keeps dropping in earlier with every run, that keeps up and it will definitely get tugged west, which I think happens. I think it ultimately runs inland Ok fair enough. What about the GFS though. It's much less amped which suggests a lack of consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 FWIW the JMA has a slower evolution to a deep low near Nantucket (972 mb by 00z Wed). It's a similar evolution to the most recent Euro but slower by at least 6h. Will see if the 06z GFS is moving any closer to the Euro again, the models have more or less flip-flopped in terms of which ones are inland and which ones are coastal. NYC potential at the moment is in a very wide range (3-20), further up the river, more like 6-24. Snow from earlier event will chill the boundary layer which is one reason why an inland runner seems unlikely, at least inland west of Fall River to Chatham MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 47 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The northern branch keeps dropping in earlier with every run, that keeps up and it will definitely get tugged west, which I think happens. I think it ultimately runs inland There is still blocking even though it's decaying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 6z GFS made another move towards the Euro This is generally what you want to see for a coastal storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 EURO snow map looks good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 EPS ensemble members for NYC: This storm has a lot more potential and there is sufficient time for things to change significantly. At this point in time, the ensemble guidance is suggesting this could be a potentially massive snowstorm well inland (i.e., Albany, Binghamton, Concord, Scranton) and at higher elevations (Catskills, Poconos, etc.). About one-in-four ensemble members shows Boston with 10" or more. The operational ECMWF is sort of an outlier for the coastal plain in depicting around 10" for NYC. That's where the ensembles stand now. Things remain subject to significant change. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: 6z GFS made another move towards the Euro This is generally what you want to see for a coastal storm. This? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 34 minutes ago, Dan76 said: This? Yep low is closer to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: The northern branch keeps dropping in earlier with every run, that keeps up and it will definitely get tugged west, which I think happens. I think it ultimately runs inland 6z euro would be a bit east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 29 minutes ago, Rjay said: 6z euro would be a bit east A later capture is more likely than an inland runner. Models being a little east gives us some wiggle room knowing things tend to trend west as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 6z euro would be a bit eastLooks more like ukie, good for nyc region I’d imagine . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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