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March 13-14th Nor'easter Threat


NJwx85
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Radar presentation is pretty awesome. Would have been cool to have had this happen in a colder time of the year. I’m actually interested to see how the observed accumulation map looks. Elevation certainly has an effect here in the east but seems like we’re going to see some west coast like variation. 

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23 minutes ago, snywx said:

This winter needs to end already. Big bust incoming up here 

Probably bust -- snow mixing in last half hour just NW Middletown at 750 ft.  Temp has dropped from 38 to 34 in 3 1/2 hours (Wunderground station nearby). Snow appearing a bit earlier than the 11 pm forecast by nws.  We may still get 6 inches up here, which wouldn't be a bust for noaa's recent call.

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9 minutes ago, Blizzwalker said:

Probably bust -- snow mixing in last half hour just NW Middletown at 750 ft.  Temp has dropped from 38 to 34 in 3 1/2 hours (Wunderground station nearby). Snow appearing a bit earlier than the 11 pm forecast by nws.  We may still get 6 inches up here, which wouldn't be a bust for noaa's recent call.

We are neighbors. Temp of 34 as well &  I would consider 6” a win here. Let’s see what the morning brings

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10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

3k has snow tomorrow 

Depends how heavy/persistent these CCB remnant/bands get. NAM 3k gets the north shore down to around 33 as these bands pivot through, the city is stuck at 35-36. I doubt 35-36 would accumulate, but 33 might on the grass especially if it comes down moderate. How far SW these bands develop will really be a nowcast situation. I don't buy for a second the 4-5" amounts on the model, I think even where I am will be lucky to get more than an inch. 

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35 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Radar presentation is pretty awesome. Would have been cool to have had this happen in a colder time of the year. I’m actually interested to see how the observed accumulation map looks. Elevation certainly has an effect here in the east but seems like we’re going to see some west coast like variation. 

Would have been a long duration snowstorm 

 

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26 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Depends how heavy/persistent these CCB remnant/bands get. NAM 3k gets the north shore down to around 33 as these bands pivot through, the city is stuck at 35-36. I doubt 35-36 would accumulate, but 33 might on the grass especially if it comes down moderate. How far SW these bands develop will really be a nowcast situation. I don't buy for a second the 4-5" amounts on the model, I think even where I am will be lucky to get more than an inch. 

Still think north shore will accumulate. Lots of models like bands setting up over LI.
 

On the other hand, every time the GFS has shown 1-2inch in the city nothing has fallen so I’m betting against anything in the city. 

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5 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

That warming should only be temporary. Be patient.

The low-level drying isn't far behind if the HRRR is to be believed. It'll be hard to get any sustainable rates with that column, especially since I'm still above freezing at the ground. Still interesting to watch, but significant accumulations are hanging by a thread up here. 

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1 minute ago, Juliancolton said:

The low-level drying isn't far behind if the HRRR is to be believed. It'll be hard to get any sustainable rates with that column, especially since I'm still above freezing at the ground. Still interesting to watch, but significant accumulations are hanging by a thread up here. 

Fair point but have you checked out the recent model guidance from basically 287 north up the Hudson valley. 

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