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March 13-14th Nor'easter Threat


NJwx85
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3 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Bust potential is huge on this storm both ways. Just IMBY 12z suite has me anywhere between 3 and 18, lol. Nothing like a tight consensus 12 hours before game time. 17z hrrr has me getting 13 inches by 11z. I'm still thinking 8-10 total. 

I'm in the same boat here. Just think of contractors and landscaping business owners. They don't know if they have to call in guys or not. What do you do? If you have to be prepared,  but you don't want to just waste money for nothing? We are 3 hours from the Warning start time in some areas. 

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7 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

I think the north shore is one place that has an oppertunity to bust high. Looks like they might get a nice band of snow as the low pulls out

I’ll believe any of it when I see it. The models cranking a CCB over CT also clip this area, but the Euro would essentially be nothing-don’t be fooled by 10-1 maps in this situation. 

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35 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I’ll believe any of it when I see it. The models cranking a CCB over CT also clip this area, but the Euro would essentially be nothing-don’t be fooled by 10-1 maps in this situation. 

Depends if it’s 33 or 35. If 33 could be a few inches on grass, if 35 white rain. 

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4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The 18z HRRR is slightly improved for the NW burbs. Primarily because of a slightly faster changeover tonight and a bit more coverage on the light snows tomorrow afternoon. 

I would not be surprised if southern Rockland and most of Westchester get no accumulation at all. It depends on temps and rates tomorrow morning. 

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2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I would not be surprised if southern Rockland and most of Westchester get no accumulation at all. It depends on temps and rates tomorrow morning. 

 

The dewpoints are fairly good on the models tomorrow late AM into the afternoon...if somehow some way there is a steady light snow I think those areas will easily fall to 30-32 tomorrow afternoon...the DPs and air mass in place to the north with the last event did not have that 

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4 minutes ago, sn0w said:

The winter storm warning for western passaic, orange, and putnam was just updated 10 minutes ago.

They actually upped the min totals...calling for 6-12 where the original was 4-12.

 

 

The recent runs look a smidge better for the borderline areas of the HV. Of course if the RGEM is right it’s a non event in those areas. 

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5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

What probably is going to happen is when this thing finally organizes tonight the 06 and 12Z runs will all finally agree and be similar 

I think two questions remain. How far south does the rain/snow like make it with the first moisture slug and is anything that falls tomorrow on the backend steady. 

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8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Not bad. Problem is outside of the higher elevations it's 35 degrees and falling during the daylight hours in mid March.

ref1km_ptype.us_ne.png

This would be a great look in January and February but find it hard to believe it is going to stick in the middle of the day. Need really good rates. 

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3 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

This would be a great look in January and February but find it hard to believe it is going to stick in the middle of the day. Need really good rates. 

 

1 minute ago, cleetussnow said:

Whats half of 0

What I just noticed @cleetussnowNWS dropped our low to 34 tonight with a high of 33 and tomorrow night down to 29. So if rates are good enough it can accumulate up here.

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