allgame830 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I would most definitely take that…. but I’m sure snowman19 is going to just post the snow depth map instead lmao 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 4 minutes ago, allgame830 said: I would most definitely take that…. but I’m sure snowman19 is going to just post the snow depth map instead lmao IMO have to post both the upside and downside extremes to give people a real sense of what can be expected, otherwise it creates a lot of bias when people only post the models at one end of the extreme. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christopher58 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Well guys nyc not getting much snow, I remember 50 years ago the winter of 72 and 73 was terrible. Just think spring in 8 days or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 22 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 945 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A complex coastal storm will affect the area today through Tuesday night. High pressure then builds into the region Wednesday through Thursday. A cold front approaches on Friday and passes through on Saturday. High pressure returns on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... Surface low pressure off the North carolina coast this morning will slowly deepen while moving N/NE today. Rains associated with it have already overspread most of the CWA with the exception being Berks county and wrn Chester county PA. Adjustments to pops and wx have been performed for the mid- morning update. For the southern Poconos, temperatures will be colder with (near freezing this morning). These temperatures will be cold enough for snow at the onset. The highest elevations will likely receive 1-4 inches of snow by midday Monday. By this point, temps will start creeping up into the mid 30s as easterly flow brings in warmer air, and with the coverage of advisory level snow expected to be confined to the highest elevations, continued with the decision to not issue an advisory for this early portion of the event. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A strong area of low pressure will be east of the Virginia/North Carolina border this evening, as a secondary low lifts along the New Jersey shore just offshore, and this low will lift towards western Long Island by daybreak Tuesday. Most of the region will be in the warm sector for most of the rain for most of the night, though temperatures in the southern Poconos, especially in the higher elevations of Monroe county, will be cold enough to support all snow. With low pressure beginning to take on a more northeasterly track as it lifts towards western Long Island, cold air advection will develop as winds shift to the north. The rain/snow line will then spread south through the Lehigh Valley and most of northern New Jersey, mainly north of the I-78 corridor, and accumulating snow will develop during this time. Snow then continues to spread south Tuesday morning. The main question is how far south snow will get. Think there may be some light accumulating snow as far south as the Philadelphia metro area and into southern New Jersey, but really not expecting much more than an inch or so from around I-195 south. The primary low over the western Atlantic will lift towards eastern New England Tuesday morning, and then this low will merge with the aforementioned secondary low. Precip continues to wrap around this system into the southern Poconos and northern New Jersey into Tuesday afternoon before ending Tuesday evening. Strong shortwave energy will pass through the region Tuesday night, keeping light accumulating snow, mainly over the northern zones. In terms of snow totals, generally expecting 1 to 2 feet of snow across Carbon, Monroe, and Sussex (NJ) counties, though the highest snow amounts will be in the higher elevations, and most areas will pick up about 1 foot or so from tonight through Tuesday. From 6 to 10 inches of snow is possible down to the I-78 corridor, mainly from early Tuesday morning through Tuesday. Will go ahead and convert the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning for Carbon, Monroe, and Sussex (NJ) counties, and will also go ahead and add Warren and Morris counties, as the heavier bands of accumulating snow look to spread a bit farther south. The heaviest snow in Morris county will be in the western half of the county, and snow amounts may be minimal across the eastern half of Morris county. For now, do not think Winter Weather Advisories are needed elsewhere. A tight pressure gradient develops over the area between the low and high pressure building in from the west on Tuesday and Tuesday night. However, latest runs of the models seem to have the low a touch farther east, so the gradient is not quite as strong as it looked in prior runs. As a result, expecting northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with 35 to 45 mph gusts, which are just below Wind Advisory criteria. Although a Wind Advisory may end up being needed for the coastal strips, will hold off one one with this package. This is their latest snow map. I am not so sure about snow amounts of 6-10” as far south as I-78 (I am assuming that refers to places west of I287). That might be a stretch. In any case the map does do a good job of matching elevated areas to increased snow amounts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Best Guess CPK- Trace JFK- Trace ISP- 0.5 inch HPN- 1 inch Sloatsburg- 2 inches SWF- 6 inches Pou- 6 inches Middletown- 6 inches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, Tatamy said: This is their latest snow map. I am not so sure about snow amounts of 6-10” as far south as I-78 (I am assuming that refers to places west of I287). That might be a stretch. In any case the map does do a good job of matching elevated areas to increased snow amounts. Morris needs to be split up. No way most of the county gets near warning criteria 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Noob question if a pro can answer. How come the IR sattelite map seems to show heavy clouds over the area but it doesn't reflect on the surface precipitation map? Same with GFS IR and surface precipitation maps. Compare both images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Morris needs to be split up. No way most of the county gets near warning criteria Morris County? How about Warren County? That’s another one. I think this reflects the difficulty inherent in the technology they use in terms of issuing a warning for part of the County. The idea is for the user to look at location specific forecasts which do account for elevation and how that impacts local snow amounts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Has anybody started an April blog topic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 7 minutes ago, Tatamy said: This is their latest snow map. I am not so sure about snow amounts of 6-10” as far south as I-78 (I am assuming that refers to places west of I287). That might be a stretch. In any case the map does do a good job of matching elevated areas to increased snow amounts. Cool. Thankyou Tat. I wonder if Upton's map matches up with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 18 minutes ago, christopher58 said: Well guys nyc not getting much snow, I remember 50 years ago the winter of 72 and 73 was terrible. Just think spring in 8 days or so. There was a blizzard from eastern LI to eastern New England on the first day of spring in 1973. If 1973 is your analogy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, David-LI said: Noob question if a pro can answer. How come the IR sattelite map seems to show heavy clouds over the area but it doesn't reflect on the surface precipitation map? Same with GFS IR and surface precipitation maps. Compare both images. Those are high clouds that as you can see largely aren’t producing precip. That panel is after the storm is vertically stacked/occluded which means the mechanisms for lifting air efficiently-divergence aloft and the frontal boundaries near the low are largely gone. So it essentially snows/rains itself out. There is also dry mid level air that has choked off the storm. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Latest RAP… . 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Detailed Forecast This Afternoon Rain. High near 39. East wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Tonight Rain before 11pm, then rain and snow between 11pm and 2am, then snow after 2am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 31. East wind 10 to 15 mph becoming north after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Tuesday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 34. Breezy, with a northwest wind 20 to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Tuesday Night Snow likely, mainly before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Blustery, with a northwest wind around 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Don't know what the NWS is seeing? This is my updated forecast. They actually upped snow totals to 11-20". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, anthonyweather said: Latest RAP… . To be fair any snow we would get near the coast would be after then. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 8 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: Cool. Thankyou Tat. I wonder if Upton's map matches up with that? Looks like it does. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, North and West said: . Lol. I get your comment. But that's not me forecasting. I don't do forecasting. That is straight from the NWS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, Tatamy said: Looks like it does. Thanks. So it jives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Ouch Ocean getting the same as parts of Sussex and warren Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Ouch Ocean getting the same as parts of Sussex and warren Ruined by this initial inverted trough which pinches off that low over CT. The offshore low gets going too late but in time to nail Boston. The CCB sends us some light slush tomorrow as a final FU. Disaster but expected. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Ouch Ocean getting the same as parts of Sussex and warren I’ll take the 2” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said: I’ll take the 2” That's the 10-1 map. That verbatim would be light white rain that if it sticks at all would be on some grass for a half hour. It also falls in the afternoon in mid March with temps probably around 35. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Just now, jm1220 said: That's the 10-1 map. That verbatim would be light white rain that if it sticks at all would be on some grass for a half hour. It also falls in the afternoon in mid March with temps probably around 35. Sounds lovely 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 The bust potential across most of CT is really big with this because if the models are even slightly wrong on the idea of that secondary low signature being too strong those areas will probably get alot more snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 I hope this storm busts high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: I hope this storm busts high There’s a lot of reasons to sell it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 28 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Ouch Ocean getting the same as parts of Sussex and warren Yea and parts of LI maybe getting more than NE NJ/Lower Westchester. I guess the east trend helped places like Ocean county and Central LI (if that verifies) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Expecting a coating here on LI if we’re lucky maybe an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Bust potential is huge on this storm both ways. Just IMBY 12z suite has me anywhere between 3 and 18, lol. Nothing like a tight consensus 12 hours before game time. 17z hrrr has me getting 13 inches by 11z. I'm still thinking 8-10 total. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Bust potential is huge on this storm both ways. Just IMBY 12z suite has me anywhere between 3 and 18, lol. Nothing like a tight consensus 12 hours before game time. 17z hrrr has me getting 13 inches by 11z. I'm still thinking 8-10 total. Yea the range of uncertainty is a little less here, either 1 inch or all rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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