March 13-14th Nor'easter Threat

[North and West]

 

That guy sounds like he has years of accumulated wisdom


.

[Winterweatherlover]

4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

No, not at all. The major media outlets at no time talked about anything but rain and some light snow here; in 2001 there were days of school closures and many graphics of 1-2 feet of snow all over tv from Philly north; one guy had to get out of Dodge ( Philly ) after that. There was also steady light sleet during the buildup to what never came. This has been nothing big here at all so far and was never thought to be by those who actually practice weather forecasting for a vocation. 

Agree not the same at all. This was always more of we need positive changes then we are in good shape storm. 

[Winterweatherlover]

Also the problem isn’t really the low going way east but it’s lack of cold air. I think most models still showing at least an inch qpf in this area. 

[Winterweatherlover]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Throwback to the 6z Euro and 12z Nam from yesterday 

Terrible models. RGEM never had interest and that’s why I never felt good about this.

 

I mean Euro isn’t terrible but I don’t think it’s number 1 anymore. 

[NJwx85]

Just now, Winterweatherlover said:

Also the problem isn’t really the low going way east but it’s lack of cold air. I think most models still showing at least an inch qpf in this area. 

The problem is a lot of people not knowing or understanding what they are looking at despite having been on here for years.

This storm has so many red flags.

No fresh injection of cold air.

Poor track of ULL overhead.

Late developing Miller B.

I could go on but those are the most obvious.

 

[Winterweatherlover]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

The problem is a lot of people not knowing or understanding what they are looking at despite having been on here for years.

This storm has so many red flags.

No fresh injection of cold air.

Poor track of ULL overhead.

Late developing Miller B.

I could go on but those are the most obvious.

 

It coulda worked out if everything went perfect but when you need perfection most likely it doesn’t happen. 

[MJO812]

Just now, Winterweatherlover said:

It coulda worked out if everything went perfect but when you need perfection most likely it doesn’t happen. 

We would be good with more cold air in place 

[Winterweatherlover]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The problem is a lot of people not knowing or understanding what they are looking at despite having been on here for years.

This storm has so many red flags.

No fresh injection of cold air.

Poor track of ULL overhead.

Late developing Miller B.

I could go on but those are the most obvious.

 

Add we are in mid March to the list. 

[Winterweatherlover]

15 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Sure, people on the margins like the LHV can go either way. Lack of elevation/shadowing will hurt some. Down here was never on the margins. We were slightly more likely than a Hail Mary. 

Since we are going football analogies Boston and HV got to the red zone but may not get a touchdown. We never got past the 50 yard line. 

[NJwx85]

4 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Add we are in mid March to the list. 

So many what ifs with this storm.

It's especially frustrating because this system had a lot of potential and it comes at the tail end of a Winter that has been very disappointing. 

But no amount of wish casting or model hugging is going to change the facts.

[Rjay]

29 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

 

 

21 hours ago, Rjay said:

The NAM doesn't have a wheelhouse.

 

[STORMANLI]

3 hours ago, North and West said:

It’s going to be cold, it’s going to be grey, and it’s going to last you the rest of your life.


.

Oh yeah, and no snow.

[NJwx85]

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

 

 

I disagree. I think it's useful inside of 24 hours. 

[USCG RS]

22 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The problem is a lot of people not knowing or understanding what they are looking at despite having been on here for years.

This storm has so many red flags.

No fresh injection of cold air.

Poor track of ULL overhead.

Late developing Miller B.

I could go on but those are the most obvious.

 

Miller B was/is the biggest warning sign here imo 

It's still possible it develops early (even now)... However... I am rarely a fan of Miller Bs

[wishcast_hater]

FOR US IN THE NORTH - 

 

Snow accumulations from this storm will be highest in the
Catskills where 1.5 to 3 feet are possible. Throughout the
Mohawk and Upper Hudson Valley, totals will range from 12-18
inches. Slightly lower accumulations of 8-12 inches in the Mid-
Hudson Valley and Western Adirondacks are likely, with locally
lower accumulations of 6-8 inches around Poughkeepsie. Finally,
Southern Vermont and the Berkshires could also see upwards of
12-18 inches with locally higher amounts of 20 inches or
greater. In addition to significant snowfall totals as a result
of this storm, high winds can be expected Tuesday and
Wednesday.

This storm will bring significant impacts to the entirety of our
CWA. Mild temperatures prior to substantial wetbulbing will lead
to snow that is very wet and heavy for the first part of the
storm. This heavy, wet snow (SLRs around 8 to 10:1) can be
expected Monday afternoon/evening through Tuesday morning
before a transition to cooler temperatures helps to increase
SLRs (upwards of 12 to 15:1) Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
morning.

[USCG RS]

1 minute ago, wishcast_hater said:

FOR US IN THE NORTH - 

 

Snow accumulations from this storm will be highest in the
Catskills where 1.5 to 3 feet are possible. Throughout the
Mohawk and Upper Hudson Valley, totals will range from 12-18
inches. Slightly lower accumulations of 8-12 inches in the Mid-
Hudson Valley and Western Adirondacks are likely, with locally
lower accumulations of 6-8 inches around Poughkeepsie. Finally,
Southern Vermont and the Berkshires could also see upwards of
12-18 inches with locally higher amounts of 20 inches or
greater. In addition to significant snowfall totals as a result
of this storm, high winds can be expected Tuesday and
Wednesday.

This storm will bring significant impacts to the entirety of our
CWA. Mild temperatures prior to substantial wetbulbing will lead
to snow that is very wet and heavy for the first part of the
storm. This heavy, wet snow (SLRs around 8 to 10:1) can be
expected Monday afternoon/evening through Tuesday morning
before a transition to cooler temperatures helps to increase
SLRs (upwards of 12 to 15:1) Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
morning.

 

[wishcast_hater]

3 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

 

 

 

 

At least I'm getting snow. 

[lee59]

4 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

FOR US IN THE NORTH - 

 

Snow accumulations from this storm will be highest in the
Catskills where 1.5 to 3 feet are possible. Throughout the
Mohawk and Upper Hudson Valley, totals will range from 12-18
inches. Slightly lower accumulations of 8-12 inches in the Mid-
Hudson Valley and Western Adirondacks are likely, with locally
lower accumulations of 6-8 inches around Poughkeepsie. Finally,
Southern Vermont and the Berkshires could also see upwards of
12-18 inches with locally higher amounts of 20 inches or
greater. In addition to significant snowfall totals as a result
of this storm, high winds can be expected Tuesday and
Wednesday.

This storm will bring significant impacts to the entirety of our
CWA. Mild temperatures prior to substantial wetbulbing will lead
to snow that is very wet and heavy for the first part of the
storm. This heavy, wet snow (SLRs around 8 to 10:1) can be
expected Monday afternoon/evening through Tuesday morning
before a transition to cooler temperatures helps to increase
SLRs (upwards of 12 to 15:1) Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
morning.

Yes this does look like a very significant event for  the northeast. Even the coast. The biggest problem could be the heavy wet snow taking down limbs in the high winds. Fortunately not any leafing of trees. Meanwhile I have an east wind already gusting to 22mph.

[Winterweatherlover]

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The new RGEM is nada, zip zero south of Orange County. This one looks to be DOA https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023031312&fh=66&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

Looks pretty horrible even for lower elevations In Orange,  Ulster, Putnam, and Dutchess. Pretty terrible bust if it verifies as I think NWS calling for 6+ in those areas. 

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Looks pretty horrible even for lower elevations In Orange,  Ulster, Putnam, and Dutchess. Pretty terrible bust if it verifies as I think NWS calling for 6+ in those areas. 

Yeah there's huge bust potential up there. For us it's easier to stomach since we aren't going to see much of anything. 

Icon is really brutal even for SNE

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah there's huge bust potential up there. For us it's easier to stomach since we aren't going to see much if anything. 

Agree I’d be going ballistic right now if I lived in the I84 corridor. Here I never had expectations. 

[Winterweatherlover]

RGEM looks bad for Boston too, seems same places that got hit all winter hit again. Everywhere else shafted. 

[jm1220]

8 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Looks pretty horrible even for lower elevations In Orange,  Ulster, Putnam, and Dutchess. Pretty terrible bust if it verifies as I think NWS calling for 6+ in those areas. 

Torched boundary layer today from the inverted trough mess, and dynamics later get going further east, plus LHV gets downsloped to an extent. 

[Winterweatherlover]

At least the majority of the subforum can now be on the same page again hating this storm and winter, what a disaster. 

[Winterweatherlover]

9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Torched boundary layer today from the inverted trough mess, and dynamics later get going further east, plus LHV gets downsloped to an extent. 

There’s something that really triggers me about last second trends even if it doesn’t really affect imby. It makes it feel like we can’t trust anything. 

[Tatamy]

This is a screenshot of the IVT currently positioned over central NJ.  Precip amounts in that area near Bridgewater are over 0.20” in places.
 

 

[HeadInTheClouds]

17 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Agree I’d be going ballistic right now if I lived in the I84 corridor. Here I never had expectations. 

It doesn't mean it is right. I think it's light on the precip and it's the only model that shows less than 6 inches up here. It shows a pathetic QPF output in the hours after rain changes to snow when every other model shows heavy precip. Every other model also shows anywhere between 9 and 18 at 10:1. Why should I believe the RGEM? 

[jm1220]

A few of the models do have some remnant of the CCB over Suffolk County especially tomorrow. I doubt it adds up to anything since it will be falling during the day in marginal temps but something to keep an eye on. I wouldn’t expect more than an inch or so on grass in lucky places. 

[Winterweatherlover]

5 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

It doesn't mean it is right. I think it's light on the precip and it's the only model that shows less than 6 inches up here. It shows a pathetic QPF output in the hours after rain changes to snow when every other model shows heavy precip. Every other model also shows anywhere between 9 and 18 at 10:1. Why should I believe the RGEM? 

Fair point. The cmc looks lousy too but I guess it’s expected cmc/RGEM would be similar. Guess we’ll find out tomorrow. Should be a sharp cutoff somewhere near I84 but not sure exactly where that sets up.

[sussexcountyobs]

3 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

This is a screenshot of the IVT currently positioned over central NJ.  Precip amounts in that area near Bridgewater are over 0.20” in places.
 

 

We've had light snow all morning that hasn't stuck since the sun came up. Now as that precip move north towards me, it has changed to rain. NWS still sticking with Warning here for 6-12" with higher amounts in higher elevations. After reading all these comments, I'm confused? Don't know what to expect. You think my elevation will save the day here?