NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2023 Author Share Posted March 13, 2023 Lets hope the HRRR is completely out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 I would take this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt8204 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, wishcast_hater said: I would take this. We're like a desperate guy at the bar at 1:30 AM who's been striking out all night. Give me someone, anyone...PLEASE! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 NAM went from this output of yesterday AM To this: 25" to 2.5" Gives a new meaning to the 10:1 Ratio! Hee Hee Hee! Oh yes.........The FDIC just announced it would buy the NAM Software/Hardware for 1"--------I mean $1.00 and throw it in the Potomac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Throwback to the 6z Euro and 12z Nam from yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2023 Author Share Posted March 13, 2023 The HRRR has maybe a few hours of mostly white rain tomorrow afternoon as the low occludes over New England. Some areas might pick up 1-2" but temps are in the mid 30's on the coastal plain and precip is light and falling during the day. Any accumulations would be on grassy and untreated surfaces. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 The HRRR has maybe a few hours of mostly white rain tomorrow afternoon as the low occludes over New England. Some areas might pick up 1-2" but temps are in the mid 30's on the coastal plain and precip is light and falling during the day. Any accumulations would be on grassy and untreated surfaces. The RGEM was hinting at a similar scenario. This one may be DOA. And yea, March, 2001 vibes big time with this one….. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The HRRR has maybe a few hours of mostly white rain tomorrow afternoon as the low occludes over New England. Some areas might pick up 1-2" but temps are in the mid 30's on the coastal plain and precip is light and falling during the day. Any accumulations would be on grassy and untreated surfaces. Timing is another thing that has burned us with this storm. Going to be hard to accumulate in the mid-30s in the middle of the day, especially in the City and south. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Light snow falling here. Not sticking. Temp 33.0 Was just down at the Shoprite in Franklin. It was raining there, and they had no snow cover unlike at my house. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: The RGEM was hinting at a similar scenario. This one may be DOA. And yea, March, 2001 vibes big time with this one….. Not really. 3/5/01 was a much bigger head fake all the way down to DC. To be honest despite the wild fluctuations in low position, etc, if people were paying attention to the evolution of the storm/pattern it was clear where this one was favored for a few days now. There are some on the margins like Boston that might still get crushed if the CCB blossoms and pivots over them but the Catskills to the Albany area to the Berkshires/Worcester Hills have been ground zero since Thu-Fri. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The RGEM was hinting at a similar scenario. This one may be DOA. And yea, March, 2001 vibes big time with this one….. Warmer than 2001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Just now, jm1220 said: Not really. 3/5/01 was a much bigger head fake all the way down to DC. To be honest despite the wild fluctuations in low position, etc, if people were paying attention to the evolution of the storm/pattern it was clear where this one was favored for a few days now. There are some on the margins like Boston that might still get crushed if the CCB blossoms and pivots over them but the Catskills to the Albany area to the Berkshires/Worcester Hills have been ground zero since Thu-Fri. We were relying on the mesolow for snow down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The RGEM was hinting at a similar scenario. This one may be DOA. And yea, March, 2001 vibes big time with this one….. This is actually nothing like March 2001 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2023 Author Share Posted March 13, 2023 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Not really. 3/5/01 was a much bigger head fake all the way down to DC. To be honest despite the wild fluctuations in low position, etc, if people were paying attention to the evolution of the storm/pattern it was clear where this one was favored for a few days now. There are some on the margins like Boston that might still get crushed if the CCB blossoms and pivots over them but the Catskills to the Albany area to the Berkshires/Worcester Hills have been ground zero since Thu-Fri. It was a bigger head fake because the model skill wasn't as good as it is now. It's very similar in that we got burned by a late developing storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It was a bigger head fake because the model skill wasn't as good as it is now. It's very similar in that we got burned by a late developing storm. If the model skill is better than why all the flip flopping? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 NAM is west because of course it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Do you trust the long range HRRR or the NAM? Or maybe neither? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 8 minutes ago, mannynyc said: NAM is west because of course it is It doesn't make a difference here. Expect a few snow showers and that's it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 8 minutes ago, mannynyc said: Do you trust the long range HRRR or the NAM? Or maybe neither? 3k is similiar to the HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Do you trust the long range HRRR or the NAM? Or maybe neither?The 3k is wayyyy east of the 12k. Dreadful model, not even worth looking at anymore. NWS should discontinue it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 24 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Not really. 3/5/01 was a much bigger head fake all the way down to DC. To be honest despite the wild fluctuations in low position, etc, if people were paying attention to the evolution of the storm/pattern it was clear where this one was favored for a few days now. There are some on the margins like Boston that might still get crushed if the CCB blossoms and pivots over them but the Catskills to the Albany area to the Berkshires/Worcester Hills have been ground zero since Thu-Fri. The HV is sorta getting maybe a last minute shaft they looked good for a while with this. NYC never looked good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2023 Author Share Posted March 13, 2023 4 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said: If the model skill is better than why all the flip flopping? Because it was still a very complex evolution that wasn't easy to resolve. The airmass which wasn't that cold to begin with is stale. You're missing a fresh injection of cold air. Besides the general lack of cold air, you have two other major problems. First, the closed upper level low tracks overhead which is always the kiss of death. You need to be just North of the track of the ULL or you dry slot. Secondly, the NAM and at times the Euro were way too strong with the energy involving the ULL itself. The Euro was closing it off much sooner, which would have led to a quicker development of the surface low and overall a stronger system. Kudos to the GFS which has had this solution since last week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2023 Author Share Posted March 13, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2023 Author Share Posted March 13, 2023 21 hours ago, NJwx85 said: Many people here will be shocked when the NAM cuts totals by 75% or more by tomorrow morning and yet have been on here for years and still fall for it every damn time. The NAM’s wheelhouse is inside of 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Because it was still a very complex evolution that wasn't easy to resolve. The airmass which wasn't that cold to begin with is stale. You're missing a fresh injection of cold air. Besides the general lack of cold air, you have two other major problems. First, the closed upper level low tracks overhead which is always the kiss of death. You need to be just North of the track of the ULL or you dry slot. Secondly, the NAM and at times the Euro were way too strong with the energy involving the ULL itself. The Euro was closing it off much sooner, which would have led to a quicker development of the surface low and overall a stronger system. Kudos to the GFS which has had this solution since last week. The GFS was not exactly good either, it was sending this to Bermuda...it was more correct for the wrong reason 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: I don’t see anyone here who was shocked. Pissed/disappointed sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wilsonvoid1 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 The GFS was not exactly good either, it was sending this to Bermuda...it was more correct for the wrong reasonEuro is the worst model lol . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2023 Author Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I don’t see anyone here who was shocked. Pissed/disappointed sure. I saw a lot of people jumping on the NAM bandwagon yesterday that were acting like a kid on Christmas morning. When the NAM in particular is all on its own it shouldn't even be discussed. To me it falls under the same category as the Weather channel naming winter storms. It's embarrassing. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 12 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: The HV is sorta getting maybe a last minute shaft they looked good for a while with this. NYC never looked good. Sure, people on the margins like the LHV can go either way. Lack of elevation/shadowing will hurt some. Down here was never on the margins. We were slightly more likely than a Hail Mary. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 39 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The RGEM was hinting at a similar scenario. This one may be DOA. And yea, March, 2001 vibes big time with this one….. No, not at all. The major media outlets at no time talked about anything but rain and some light snow here; in 2001 there were days of school closures and many graphics of 1-2 feet of snow all over tv from Philly north; one guy had to get out of Dodge ( Philly ) after that. There was also steady light sleet during the buildup to what never came. This has been nothing big here at all so far and was never thought to be by those who actually practice weather forecasting for a vocation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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