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March 13-14th Nor'easter Threat


NJwx85
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For days people said this setup favors New England....and here we are. It begs the question of why waste time following models that haven't a prayer of verifying? When simple intuition seems more accurate. What a strange field this is.....I could be wrong but that's my recollection......and once again, the curse of March rears its ugly head for the city, with a few exceptions. Difference here is that none of the actual local pros were ever on board with a decent snow for the city, as opposed to some of the big March busts I remember. 

Tale as old as time… People see what they want to see. Happens in other parts of life, too… in relationships, ideas, fandom.


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1 hour ago, LVwhiteout said:

Walt GM. What would you think the final verdict is for the Allentown, pa, Lehigh Valley area. Seems we are stuck in no mans land

Depends on where the IVT sets up shop.  Most models have the heavier precip with it falling as snow in the Poconos and Catskills.  For the LV it depends upon precip rates and amounts.  As you said we are in a no man’s land being too far west to see much from the synoptic precip from SLP over the Atlantic and too far south and too low in elevation to see much snow from the IVT.

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5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

New Euro run puts the low over central CT so maybe spoke too soon about Boston getting crushed. :lmao: 

Have to admit, this winter has been a total fail there too. 

This one will go down as a prototypical elevation event.  Places like Boston and the CT River Valley will get much less than surrounding higher terrain.  In the Boston area the place to be will be north and west of 128.  Like you said coastal areas don’t look too good with this event.

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Just now, Tatamy said:

This one will go down as a prototypical elevation event.  Places like Boston and the CT River Valley will get much less than surrounding higher terrain.  In the Boston area the place to be will be north and west of 128.  Like you said coastal areas don’t look too good with this event.

Seems the lower elevations of the HV may bust badly as well. Story of the winter. You either need elevation or to be Albany and north this winter. 

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24 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

New Euro run puts the low over central CT so maybe spoke too soon about Boston getting crushed. :lmao: 

Have to admit, this winter has been a total fail there too. 

If you thought this has been bad for us in NY, don't forget about Boston. Might go from 6-12 to 1 to 3. 

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26 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

New Euro run puts the low over central CT so maybe spoke too soon about Boston getting crushed. :lmao: 

Have to admit, this winter has been a total fail there too. 

Sounds like Catskills, Adirondacks and Poconos could really get hammered especially with a more western track. Not so good for the coast.

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Just now, lee59 said:

Sounds like Catskills, Adirondacks and Poconos could really get hammered especially with a more western track. Not so good for the coast.

Hunter Mountain might be the best place of any with this. Perfect for a huge upslope easterly flow event. They may get 30”. 

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31 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Seems the lower elevations of the HV may bust badly as well. Story of the winter. You either need elevation or to be Albany and north this winter. 

Predicting 3-6, where I live lower elevation East of the Hudson.  Par for the course this winter if we only get a few inches to never crack 6 inches in any event.  

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3 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Mr Rayno thinks Boston gets a foot based on the track of the upper low off shore.  

 

Yeah he's not wrong with his ideas.  I saw that on twitter...I do not buy the huge snow shield the HRRR/3K have back into our area tomorrow at all.  I understand what they're keying in on to have that but to me the system is simply closed off a tad too far east for that to happen...its not crazy though that maybe the N Fork of cntrl to E Suffolk and maybe places like HVN could get in on a decent period of snow in the afternoon tomorrow.  The DPs are cold enough this time that no question on a N flow places could get to 32-33 and accumulate 

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The latest HRRR has basically no snow outside of the higher elevations of Orange County and NW NJ through 05z tonight. Then the changeover gradually begins, but the whole area begins to dry slot. If that happens, the forecast is very much in trouble. This reminds me of March 2001 so much, but the biggest difference being that models are so much better than they were then and so they were able to figure this out a lot quicker.

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