vegan_edible Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 weather.com for white plains... this is new? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 22 minutes ago, RI Rob said: So this is a lost cause in the city right? If you believe the global models yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 The soundings for this storm for NYC/LI are godawful for this upcoming song. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 17 minutes ago, mannynyc said: If you believe the global models yes Plus RGEM and latest NAM 12k. So basically all the models. RAP and HRRR are still out of range so I wouldn’t put any credence in them, Euro has shifted over to the GFS, which is quite frankly embarrassing. UKIE is useless these days too. NYC proper is pretty much out of it unless 1-3 inches of slop on street corners after an inch+ of rain is what you’re looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Just now, romba said: Plus RGEM and latest NAM 12k. RAP and HRRR are still out of range so I wouldn’t out any credence in them, Euro has shifted over to the GFS, which is quite frankly embarrassing. UKiE is useless these days too. NYC proper is pretty much out of it unless 1-3 inches of slop on street corners after an inch+ of rain is what you’re looking for. RGEM is showing a very different storm than the Euro and GFS. The low is significantly west. Just because it shows rain for the city doesn't mean it is the same storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Since 1956 there have been 4 10 plus inch snowfalls in March in NYC. Near misses April 6 1982 with 9.6, March 22 1967 9.0 inches , March 21, 2018 8.4, March 2 2009 8.3, March 14 2017 7.6, March 5 2015 7.5. Most of these at 10 inches recorded somewhere within the city boundaries. It’s not as rare as everyone seems to believe. People have short memories.I lived in the lower Hudson valley for 25 years, as well as the DC suburbs and the elevations of northern MD. I’d take NY climo any day of the week if we’re talking about the average winter versus DC. It’s just easier to snow up that way. NYC sometimes deals with more maritime issues being directly on the Atlantic, but generally speaking, it’s much better than DC. Maryland is weird though, cause I’d take my climo in northern MD over NYC. I saw over 50” a few years ago while DC didn’t hit double digits. 30-40 miles makes all of the difference down there. The one thing I will say is… the biggies that do work out for the mid Atlantic typically jackpot down there (January 2016 or snowmaggedon in 2010 for example) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, mannynyc said: RGEM is showing a very different storm than the Euro and GFS. The low is significantly west. Just because it shows rain for the city doesn't mean it is the same storm. Different path to a similar outcome. I know RGEM has a warm bias but it would take a miracle at this point to get significant snows to the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 It'll be interesting to see where the watches/warnings go up and how they align with the final totals in our area. I'm at exactly 800 feet verified by GPS and topo map. Parts of Morris County, Jefferson, Oak Ridge, Mount Arlington, are a few hundred feet higher than me, as are other parts of Sparta. Even a portion of Rockway sits over 1000 feet. If anyone remembers March 31 - April 1, 1997. We had a very elevation driven intense storm up here. I remember leaving work in Morris Plains to a rain/snow mix, and nothing on the ground, to over a foot with stuck and abandoned cars on Route 15 once I hit the higher parts of Jefferson and into Sparta. I was a kid all of 22 at the time, driving a stupid Saturn sedan back and forth to work. I still don't know how I made it home in that thing. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 8 minutes ago, romba said: Plus RGEM and latest NAM 12k. So basically all the models. RAP and HRRR are still out of range so I wouldn’t put any credence in them, Euro has shifted over to the GFS, which is quite frankly embarrassing. UKIE is useless these days too. NYC proper is pretty much out of it unless 1-3 inches of slop on street corners after an inch+ of rain is what you’re looking for. In other words, the snow would begin in about 36 hours but you are tossing all the global model runs other than the ones from the last 7 hours? I don't agree with that. The weather forecast models over history have notoriously shifted back and forth prior to storm events whether they verified or not. I think it's early and very exaggerated with such a close call to at this point say the NYC proper is "pretty much out of it". WX/PT 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 hour ago, jayyy said: True. Except they failed for nearly the same exact reasons this year. Can include Philly and Baltimore in that same bucket. Lack of cold air, blocking, no western ridge, a constantly flexing SER, etc. Was there a different reason for BOS failing this year? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 The OP Euro is also on the eastern edge of its own ensemble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 12 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: In other words, the snow would begin in about 36 hours but you are tossing all the global model runs other than the ones from the last 7 hours? I don't agree with that. The weather forecast models over history have notoriously shifted back and forth prior to storm events whether they verified or not. I think it's early and very exaggerated with such a close call to at this point say the NYC proper is "pretty much out of it". WX/PT Very fair, but at this juncture I feel that with each passing 6 hours the odds of a significant correction get smaller and smaller. It’s getting late early, to quote the great Yogi. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard Hunter Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, romba said: Very fair, but at this juncture I feel that with each passing 6 hours the odds of a significant correction get smaller and smaller. It’s getting late early, to quote the great Yogi. Correction from what though? Has any model shown the same solution consistently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 4 minutes ago, mannynyc said: The OP Euro is also on the eastern edge of its own ensemble OP’s greater resolution hold more weight so close to start time, not sure how useful the ensembles are anymore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, Blizzard Hunter said: Correction from what though? Has any model shown the same solution consistently? Not really, but neither have we seen anything close to a hit with any consistency either. Just because there’s no consensus for exactly how it misses NYC proper, doesn’t mean there’s no consensus that it does miss. Not the greatest logic I’ll admit, but there’s something to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, romba said: OP’s greater resolution hold more weight so close to start time, not sure how useful the ensembles are anymore. Either way that’s an absurd ensemble spread this close 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Just now, mikem81 said: Either way that’s an absurd ensemble spread this close Very true, that’s actually ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 HRRR is West, breaking the trend. Doesn't really help NYC though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Can someone explain the convection and the chances it represents the real LP locations or just giving difficulty representing accurate surface representations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 SREFs trimmed back, heads up metro folks… NAM follows them . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 It's hard not to laugh at this point 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, mannynyc said: It's hard not to laugh at this point There’s a middle finger somewhere in that image 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, mannynyc said: It's hard not to laugh at this point Wow. Rain for NW New Jersey even . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 HRRR with the extra punch to the face cant make this up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 45 minutes ago, romba said: Very fair, but at this juncture I feel that with each passing 6 hours the odds of a significant correction get smaller and smaller. It’s getting late early, to quote the great Yogi. Again don't agree. If we are getting heavy snow or moderate snow, it's the day after tomorrow. There is lots of time or corrections either way. Anyone remember Boxing Day? WX/PT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 The models! OMG the models! Even after the storm starts, 6 to 12 hrs in. I will live or die by the models! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Stop model hugging. It won’t be snowing in Atlantic City while raining in nyc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Nam'd 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, mannynyc said: Nam'd Not really, but it did get a little better generally for most of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, mannynyc said: Nam'd Every panel prior to that is rain in the metro. Not exactly nam’d. Effed is more like it. Metro will see flakes as the storm pulls out. Meh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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