SnoSki14 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 The SNE crowd would be really happy with that GFS run but unfortunately for them it's likely moving towards the other guidance now. A tuck is much more likely if the phasing plays out as depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 GEFS is a little west of 12z and a lot more QPF for the region especially Long island and CT. However more QPF across the board. Think the NW low has a trough to the offshore low again however with heavy precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: GEFS is a little west of 12z and a lot more QPF for the region especially Long island and CT. However more QPF across the board. Think the NW low has a trough to the offshore low again however with heavy precip. How much of it is rain lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 26 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: If it's too far east CT would do better than NYC, if it's too far west CT wouldn't do better than NYC. Although you could make a case everyone could do better than NYC due to the UHI effect. Yep, and I think there will be multiple gradients at play here, a north/south gradient and an east/west gradient and an urban/suburban gradient also lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Way better looks from the GEFS compared to 12Z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 9, 2023 Author Share Posted March 9, 2023 57 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Ok thats not way out to sea. It was initially way OTS when the system was in the mid Atlantic. The Euro at that hour has the system on the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Euro para ! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 3 hours ago, jm1220 said: Mar 2001 just developed too late for most of us. It did just fine east of the William Floyd and would’ve up to NYC had it bombed just 75 miles further SW. That’s why miller B events are always nail biters for us. West of William Floyd too. https://northshorewx.com/ClimateData/PNSOKX20010307.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 8 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: West of William Floyd too. https://northshorewx.com/ClimateData/PNSOKX20010307.htm Actually looks similar to the map for April 1996 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 24 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro para ! That'll work. Right in the sweet spot forky mentioned earlier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Just now, Franklin0529 said: That'll work. Right in the sweet spot forky mentioned earlier Still worried that he has not opined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Euro para !MJO what is the euro para? I don’t subscribe to stormvista, is it basically the euro run out beyond 90 hours? I thought the OP looked better at 90. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 MJO what is the euro para? I don’t subscribe to stormvista, is it basically the euro run out beyond 90 hours? I thought the OP looked better at 90.Is that basically the control run? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 33 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro para ! Hmmm...I wonder how it compares to the standard European model regarding accuracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 13 minutes ago, Heisy said: Is that basically the control run? . I thought para was a new version of a weather model that's being tested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Yep, and I think there will be multiple gradients at play here, a north/south gradient and an east/west gradient and an urban/suburban gradient also lol And the elevated/non elevated gradient. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 U can see at 90 hr on the euro thing was about to go nuclear. Buckle up boys!! We may have our big boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 7 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: U can see at 90 hr on the euro thing was about to go nuclear. Buckle up boys!! We may have our big boy Wow 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 MJO being in off the charts phase 8 is going to have bomb the 2nd wave out . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Wow It looks great, the only thing that would be better is I wish it was 24 hours instead of 90. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Wow Wow is right!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Well after mid March it’s just about over. We all know that hopefully we go out with a bang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 10 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: It looks great, the only thing that would be better is I wish it was 24 hours instead of 90. If you start drinking now until the storm starts it'll make that 90 feel like 24. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, Nibor said: If you start drinking now until the storm starts it'll make that 90 feel like 24. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 47 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Wow It's almost in Forky's sweet spot but will we have the cold to accommodate it. The snowfall maps don't look very promising I'm afraid 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 When forky comes to talk about this 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 Euro has been rather locked in compared to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 36 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It's almost in Forky's sweet spot but will we have the cold to accommodate it. The snowfall maps don't look very promising I'm afraid If the heights crash to the west as the low bombs, it should be cold enough as long as the low tracks 75 miles or so to your east. A closed upper low would also really crank the CCB west of the low. I’m more concerned about a hugger and heavy snow in the mountains vs a miss. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 will 00Z GFS cave to EURO solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 18 minutes ago, jdj5211 said: will 00Z GFS cave to EURO solution? looks like another shift towards it to me. deeper NS, more favorable height orientation over the EC, trough is more buckled 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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