lee59 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 9 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Where we are will get blitzed by easterly winds before anything hits the ground which will likely be rain since it’s coming from 45 degree waters. If the storm is near Nantucket or the Cape, I would think we will get more of a Northerly wind. The problem would be how heavy the precip is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: Not exactly true. I have no idea yet. It seemed low unless we got absolute perfection which is rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, lee59 said: If the storm is near Nantucket or the Cape, I would think we will get more of a Northerly wind. The problem would be how heavy the precip is. That depends on how strong the low gets and moving on a good track. If it’s like the GFS/Euro we won’t get much of anything since it will bomb too late or too far east. We really need a NAM like outcome. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Euro takes it away…oh well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: That depends on how strong the low gets and moving on a good track. If it’s like the GFS/Euro we won’t get much of anything since it will bomb too late or too far east. We really need a NAM like outcome. Yep I've often seen storms passing over Nantucket or the Cape give us rain because the way they got there and how they strengthened (or didn't) wasn't what we needed for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Euro takes it away…oh well Like this winter hasn't been bad enough we may get shutout from what was supposed to be a great pattern with hours and hours of wasted tracking. At least 01-02 and 19-20 sucked and ended early 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2023 Author Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Euro takes it away…oh well You can’t take away what never was outside of a few fluke runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Like this winter hasn't been bad enough we may get shutout from what was supposed to be a great pattern with hours and hours of wasted tracking. At least 01-02 and 19-20 sucked and ended early At least we finally got a couple light events near the end of the winter. 4 inches of snow is better than nothing. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Euro takes it away…oh well With a good h5 track , we should wait. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 The model run to run consistency is pretty bad. I agree with Rjay that we still don't have a good handle on this storm. The setup looks sensitive to modest changes. I could see the Euro swinging heavy snow back into the City on the next run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2023 Author Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: At least we finally got a couple light events near the end of the winter. 4 inches of snow is better than nothing. lol It won’t be though. Yesterday I had 4” on my car and maybe an inch on grass. And it was all gone by this time yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: At least we finally got a couple light events near the end of the winter. 4 inches of snow is better than nothing. lol Yeah but starting Friday was supposed have so much potential but as we know that doesn't always translate 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Metasequoia said: The model run to run consistency is pretty bad. I agree with Rjay that we still don't have a good handle on this storm. The setup looks sensitive to modest changes. I could see the Euro swinging heavy snow back into the City on the next run. That's true of the ukie euro and nam. Rgem and gfs never really got on board 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: At least we finally got a couple light events near the end of the winter. 4 inches of snow is better than nothing. lol Central Park still has a good shot at futility. If this fails which you have to say looks more likely than not at this point it’s an F. I have 7.5” with roughly a 35” seasonal average. Huge F. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It won’t be though. Yesterday I had 4” on my car and maybe an inch on grass. And it was all gone by this time yesterday. He's talking about what we already got 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Writing has been on the wall since Christmas. I don’t expect the pattern to change mid march. Let’s all hope for an El Niño next winter. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, jm1220 said: Central Park still has a good shot at futility. If this fails which you have to say looks more likely than not at this point it’s an F. I have 7.5” with roughly a 35” seasonal average. Huge F. Yea, and the F doesn’t stand for fail 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 28 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: I don't thing people necessarily trust the NAM (outside of 24h) but we had basically gone all winter without one of those classic "we've been NAMd" runs so it illicited a reaction from us that we haven't had in a year or so! And it was also following every run of every model improving from their previous run...and the first one up of the 12z suite. So at that moment in time, although likely overblown, seemed to be an additional indicator of much more improvement 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, NJwx85 said: It won’t be though. Yesterday I had 4” on my car and maybe an inch on grass. And it was all gone by this time yesterday. I enjoyed the few inches that we got (we had a 2" event and 1.5" event here) even though they melted very quickly. They were pretty scenes with everything coated with the wet snow. Better than seeing no snow at all for the entire winter, but obviously it was still a horrendous winter for snow lovers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2023 Author Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: I enjoyed the few inches that we got (we had a 2" event and 1.5" event here) even though they melted very quickly. They were pretty scenes with everything coated with the wet snow. Better than seeing no snow at all for the entire winter, but obviously it was still a horrendous winter for snow lovers. I had a 6” storm the week before last and one storm in December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 11 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Central Park still has a good shot at futility. If this fails which you have to say looks more likely than not at this point it’s an F. I have 7.5” with roughly a 35” seasonal average. Huge F. Yup. It’s a lock now. Them not measuring anything last week hurt. We are too late in the year for snow to accumulate in the city proper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 The problem with this system from the beginning has been the lack of cold air. I think it can still be a major Nor'easter, with or without the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 NWS watches don’t make any sense…. WSW for New Haven county but skips over NoRthern Westchester and Rockland then a WSW in Orange… lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 10 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yup. It’s a lock now. Them not measuring anything last week hurt. We are too late in the year for snow to accumulate in the city proper Spread in ECENS suggests accumulating snow, while unlikely, is not impossible even in Manhattan. Still a big spread meaning butterflies (monarchs are back in Houston) can change the outcome. I'm still rooting for the students at St. Martin of Tours in Amityville (students also from Massapequa and Copaigue, even a few from Lindenhurst). I started in 1970, we had years w/o snow days. I think 3rd grade there wasn't one. Now, January and February 1978 were golden. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wilsonvoid1 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 NAM . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 6 minutes ago, lee59 said: The problem with this system from the beginning has been the lack of cold air. I think it can still be a major Nor'easter, with or without the snow. Typhoon Tip on NE forum noted the lack of a clear low level focus, because the antecedent air mass is stale, is why the models are still having large divergence between runs and on the ensembles. He said that in 3 or 4 paragraphs. A colder initial air mass and a sharp gradient between land and maritime airmass would mean where the low forms and tracks would be constrained. I look at NE, Grandma, dead now 20 years, lived across the street from the North Quincy MBTA station and the arcing and sparking (power flashes, really) when heavy wet snow was falling on the third rail was just awesome. The lights in the trains would be blinking in and out. Probably bad for the motors... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 NAM's 2 inches of QPF at a 5:1 ratio is a nice decent school canceler for SE Nassau/SW Suffolk. Not giving up hope. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Can we stop with the whole if NYC gets nothing this is a nothing storm? There are parts of the sub forum that will have quite a bit of snow. If it doesn’t snow in your neighborhood hop on a metro north train and go to the snow. It really isn’t that hard. I get that we all want something big but it is mid March and it is hard to do something big surrounded by water. Still looks pretty impressive for the mountains and upstate. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 WSW just put up for Northern Westchester, Rockland and Western Bergen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now