Winterweatherlover Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Not trying to be negative but part of why people get disappointed and say the models stink is you trust models and model runs that shouldn’t be trusted too much. The NAM is unfortunately not a reliable at all. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 CMC ensembles way northwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 10 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Yeah we all know your thoughts and at this point it’s quite nauseating because your focus is so driven on the same models for every storm. Have you used your 5 posts for the day yet. The only thing your right on is major 12+ north of 84. However between 287 and 84 there most certainly could be at least a 3-6+ storm! I love how he says “laughably inaccurate”, and “not even funny” in the same sentence. Does that make it a wash? 2 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Would a met or someone that knows their stuff provide some guidance on using ensembles near the start of a storm? How useful are they at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 16 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Not trying to be negative but part of why people get disappointed and say the models stink is you trust models and model runs that shouldn’t be trusted too much. The NAM is unfortunately not a reliable at all. It certainly consistently overstates QPF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 The UKMET did cutback some. Those 10:1 snow maps people insist on continuing to use are going to be laughably inaccurate and so overdone it’s not going to be funny. Ratios are going to be 5:1, maybe 7:1 if you’re lucky. I’m riding the RGEM/CMC/GFS like Sea Biscuit. The NAM (12k, 3k) is going to cutback 85% of what it just showed by tomorrow morning, that run was Lmfaoooo worthy, pure comedy. I think the Euro caves in the next couple of runs with that bogus juiced up inverted trough it was showing, which IMO isn’t happening. As far as the ICON, it already cutback from what it was showing last night and it’s resolution isn’t the best. This storm hasn’t changed since Friday. Like I said before and these latest runs haven’t changed my mind. This is an I-84 north major snowstorm with minimal accumulations south of thereThanks Deb, great work.. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, larrye said: It certainly consistently overstates QPF. If it’s really a phased bomb in the right location a la NAM, there definitely could be big totals near the city, 10”+ because there would be 1-2”/hr rates easy in the CCB under a heavy band. But if it’s a more sloppy outcome and it phases too late like the GFS or it plows into CT like GGEM it could be just white rain at the end. Still a ton of uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 CMC ensembles way northwest Everything looks further northeast on ensembles… unless I’m missing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: If it’s really a phased bomb in the right location a la NAM, there definitely could be big totals near the city, 10”+ because there would be 1-2”/hr rates easy in the CCB under a heavy band. But if it’s a more sloppy outcome and it phases too late like the GFS or it plows into CT like GGEM it could be just white rain at the end. Still a ton of uncertainty. I'd take the CMC idea from 48-54...it would probably be mostly snow in the city despite what it shows if that unfolded. the 700mb temps of -11 to -12C are colder than the magic number often used to determine if in a scenario you're trying to cool the airmass in a CCB scenario you want to see -10C or colder at 700 to be confident you're going to get down to 33-34 or less at the surface...this is a rule some older mets have used 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 20 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Not trying to be negative but part of why people get disappointed and say the models stink is you trust models and model runs that shouldn’t be trusted too much. The NAM is unfortunately not a reliable at all. You also have to take history into account. March is a well known month for busts even in a good winter in areas just outside the city ( yes I know some places have slightly different climo and that does make a big difference ) but in general I'm skeptical of big snows in March IMBY. Never seen one. By big I mean 18 or over. I consider 4-6 a big event in March around here. 10 is huge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: You also have to take history into account. March is a well known month for busts even in a good winter in areas just outside the city ( yes I know some places have slightly different climo and that does make a big difference ) but in general I'm skeptical of big snows in March IMBY. Never seen one. By big I mean 18 or over. I consider 4-6 a big event in March around here. 10 is huge. Yes and we only have a 40-50 year sample size to base it on, but it works. The one 10"+ storm was March 1993 which also changed to rain after dumping about a foot. 4-6 is perfectly fine for March for here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Euro trended to the gfs Not good at all Nam is such a shitty model 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, LibertyBell said: Yes and we only have a 40-50 year sample size to base it on, but it works. The one 10"+ storm was March 1993 which also changed to rain after dumping about a foot. 4-6 is perfectly fine for March for here. March 2018 was amazing here in suffolk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Href - 24 hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, justinj said: March 2018 was amazing here in suffolk Yep Suffolk is an amazing place to be for late developing Miller B's, I think there was close to 18 inches there? We had 8" here which is an MECS any time but especially in March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, LibertyBell said: Yep Suffolk is an amazing place to be for late developing Miller B's, I think there was close to 18 inches there? We had 8" here which is an MECS any time but especially in March. I had almost 20” I think it was March 21 or 22nd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro trended to the gfs Not good at all Nam is such a shitty model We knew the nam wasn't gonna be right. Such a fine line.. all about where the phase happens 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: We knew the nam wasn't gonna be right. Such a fine line.. all about where the phase happens Euro is also a shit model Shifted about 100 miles northeast 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Thank God now I can finally give up on this stupid storm 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: Href - 24 hour . Max not mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Thank God now I can finally give up on this stupid storm Yep over 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Euro headed towards Nova Scotia lol 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, Rjay said: Euro headed towards Nova Scotia lol Awesome, I used to party in Halifax. Euro must be in the mood to party too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Atleast next Friday+sat looks beautiful 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Euro just has some light snow on the backside tuesday afternoon, which would be white rain. Terrible run but not a surprise. We know the NAM is a horrendous model that loves to tease us with crazy solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 5 minutes ago, Rjay said: Euro headed towards Nova Scotia lol It's crazy to see every model with a different solution so close to the storm. The euro also has a double low 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Still somehow the EURO gives areas Nw of 287 both on 10:1 and Kutchera 6+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: Euro just has some light snow on the backside tuesday afternoon, which would be white rain. Terrible run but not a surprise. We know the NAM is a horrendous model that loves to tease us with crazy solutions. At least it backed off now and not tomorrow night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 so expect 0-24” glad we can key on that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 5 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said: Atleast next Friday+sat looks beautiful In terms of nice warm weather finally or another storm that will inevitably fail? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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