WintersGrasp Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 My favorite thing about potential storms is seeing names here that I’ve never seen before..Haven’t posted in quite a while here either. Hopefully this storm sends this winter off with a bang (but I’m sure we still have a chance of a little more in the next couple weeks). As it stands now, anything from rain and a little white snow to even 6”+ is in the cards for the NYC area. If I had to bet, I’d say 2” for the city (though maybe only a trace for Central Park), up to 4” just N and W, and 5-10” further N and W into NJ, elevation dependent, with the higher amounts 800’+. Only thing that looks like a safe bet right now is the jackpot being NY state through NW CT, MA, and on out. Of course, everything could be tugged a bit further N and leave us with rain ending as a few wet snow showers. We have to keep in mind that the NAM, a few days out, doesn’t usually put out solutions that are increasingly more likely, but just puts out different solutions each run (6” to 12” to 0 to 12” to 0, etc). HRRR is usually heavily overdone right up until the storm hits, and not meant to be a long range model. Most models, such as the GFS, have not really had anything more than an inch or so for the metro or coastal areas for a couple days at least. Good luck to all!. Pro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 hour ago, Snowlover11 said: I am disbelieving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 11 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Taking NAM over RGEM can lead to big disappointment. It’s also not like NAM showed this every run, it’s one run. It’s ok to be excited though but I always take a cautious approach. It's not just the nam tho. The euro and ukie were also big storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 39 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Just posted this elsewhere as a reality check, but damn if this verifies or even close to it, it makes our winter, given what we've gotten so far. The modeling gods wouldn't take this away from us now, would they? :>) This is not a forecast - it's just one model run, but it's a doozy... We've officially been NAM-ed, as the 12Z NAM which just came out shows the potential of this highly complex, very powerful nor'easter. This snowfall map is crazy and the snow falls after almost everyone gets an inch of rain on Monday (the transition to snow is by about 1-3 am Tuesday for most and is over by late Tuesday night). This kind of possibility is why so many have been following this so closely. We could still mostly whiff and get mostly rain for CNJ/NENJ/NYC and even much of NNJ/EPA, but this model run shows what is possible in this kind of explosive setup. Also, we're not 5 days out, we're 24-30 hours from the start of the event late Monday morning. Reminds me of the NAM for Jan 2016's blizzard, where it was the first model to sniff out the huge potential (about 48 hrs before the event, iirc). Stay tuned folks. NAM almost always overdoes qpf and generally sucks otherwise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 These models are all over the place.. maybe tommor they will come into somewhat of an agreement? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, JB_Wchstr said: NAM almost always overdoes qpf and generally sucks otherwise. what verifies is usually one third to one half of the nam's output on its best runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: It's not just the nam tho. The euro and ukie were also big storms. Euro wasn't anything like the NAM though. Even after the changeover it showed a lot of mixing, which is why it showed a small amount of snow for NYC compared to the amount it showed to the north and west. Definitely a big storm to the north and west though. It'll be interesting to see what it shows this afternoon. Hopefully a better scenario for the NYC area. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 12z Icon snowmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 GFS is about 1" - 1.25" QPF for most of forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 GFS still not impressed. It gives only a small amount of snow on the backside which would probably be white rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Northof78 said: GFS is about 1" - 1.25" QPF for most of forum Is it still chasing convection to the east? Seems euro ukie an Nam are consolidating an gfs chasing east.. model chaos I guess 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Given low ratios, questionable inverted trough, slp placement uncertainty, too many synoptic uncertainties in general with borderline temps, I conservatively predict 4-8 inches here in the Poughkeepsie area, valley locations, foot plus in the higher elevations based on blended guidance. NYC and all coastal sections, I have no clue honestly. I hope you guys can score some snow too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 I would weigh GFS more than the insane NAM run. Until the globals start showing solutions like that I wouldn't buy it. GFS has the problem we've generally been seeing-phases/bombs way too late after our initial airmass is ruined by the inverted trough and easterly wind, which is where 90% of NYC's precip comes from. By the time the low does bomb, the heavy precip is gone other than some wraparound light snow that likely wouldn't accumulate. The GFS still insisting on that ugly outcome is a concern for sure. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, White Gorilla said: Given low ratios, questionable inverted trough, slp placement uncertainty, too many synoptic uncertainties in general with borderline temps, I conservatively predict 4-8 inches here in the Poughkeepsie area, valley locations, foot plus in the higher elevations based on blended guidance. NYC and all coastal sections, I have no clue honestly. I hope you guys can score some snow too. That's probably what I'd do at this point. The Catskills should easily see 12-18", hopefully the shadowing/downslope isn't too bad in the valley. NYC/LI/much of NJ I'd still go very conservative until these disaster outcomes like the GFS jump on. This could easily still be a washout with some white rain at the end with the too late/sloppy phase. NAM is just a horrible model that can't be trusted. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: I would weigh GFS more than the insane NAM run. Until the globals start showing solutions like that I wouldn't buy it. GFS has the problem we've generally been seeing-phases/bombs way too late after our initial airmass is ruined by the inverted trough and easterly wind, which is where 90% of NYC's precip comes from. By the time the low does bomb, the heavy precip is gone other than some wraparound light snow that likely wouldn't accumulate. The GFS still insisting on that ugly outcome is a concern for sure. Right, the NAM seems to do best in the "snow or nothing" specific blockbuster scenarios. Plus it always has one of these crazy runs in this time range. Would you go with a 50/50 GFS/Euro split? Of course we weigh 12z and 0z runs more than the other ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Since the RGEM is so warm, it's not surprising that the CMC is warm too. The 12z run gives us a lot of rain/snow mix tuesday, which obviously wouldn't cut it. It'll be interesting to see what UKMET and EURO show in a little while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, LibertyBell said: Right, the NAM seems to do best in the "snow or nothing" specific blockbuster scenarios. Plus it always has one of these crazy runs in this time range. Would you go with a 50/50 GFS/Euro split? Of course we weigh 12z and 0z runs more than the other ones. It would be really good if the foreign globals camp stay on a snowier outcome here but this is a very delicate setup that in a snap can go to total garbage. I'd maybe up the percentage to 20% that NYC has significant impacts (I don't count yet another washout as significant). I wouldn't start honking until the models tomorrow 12z are on board with the NAM like solution. Waaaaay too much can go wrong. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Metro area lost the CMC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 That's probably what I'd do at this point. The Catskills should easily see 12-18", hopefully the shadowing/downslope isn't too bad in the valley. NYC/LI/much of NJ I'd still go very conservative until these disaster outcomes like the GFS jump on. This could easily still be a washout with some white rain at the end with the too late/sloppy phase. NAM is just a horrible model that can't be trusted.Nam is being decommissioned for a reason. It sucks balls. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: It would be really good if the foreign globals camp stay on a snowier outcome here but this is a very delicate setup that in a snap can go to total garbage. I'd maybe up the percentage to 20% that NYC has significant impacts (I don't count yet another washout as significant). I wouldn't start honking until the models tomorrow 12z are on board with the NAM like solution. Waaaaay too much can go wrong. so even later than me, I was thinking 0z tonight but 12z tomorrow would be better to get more consistency, especially with what 0z Euro runs have been doing over the past week. For me significant would be 4" of snow and I'm still going to take the under on that until we get more consistency. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 This may be another case of "careful what we wish for". If the best (worst?) case plays out, with heavy rains early, high winds, and marginal temps, isn't the potential there for significant damage and power loss, from the weight of wet snow on trees, power lines, roofs, etc? Especially in the northern part of the subforum. Even 8-10" could be consequential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, romba said: Metro area lost the CMC That’s a very broad statement. It’s a big metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 The gfs has actually ticked south passed couple runs If you toggle through. Playing catch up to the euro? We will find out soon enough 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 January 2016 may be the only storm we will ever have where both Allentown and JFK saw over 30 inches lol. Straight latitude storm. Both my places got over 30", will probably never happen again. I saw 45” down at my old house in Montgomery county MD. Amazing storm. . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said: That’s a very broad statement. It’s a big metro area. Do I say city and immediate area? Not sure what language to use so everyone doesn’t get needlessly pissed off, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, Picard said: This may be another case of "careful what we wish for". If the best (worst?) case plays out, with heavy rains early, high winds, and marginal temps, isn't the potential there for significant damage and power loss, from the weight of wet snow on trees, power lines, roofs, etc? Especially in the northern part of the subforum. Even 8-10" could be consequential. This is not the Federation Jean-Luc they want destruction 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, romba said: Do I say city and immediate area? Not sure what language to use so everyone doesn’t get needlessly pissed off, thanks. Yes that would be great. Better than writing off anything 15 miles north and west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, Picard said: This may be another case of "careful what we wish for". If the best (worst?) case plays out, with heavy rains early, high winds, and marginal temps, isn't the potential there for significant damage and power loss, from the weight of wet snow on trees, power lines, roofs, etc? Especially in the northern part of the subforum. Even 8-10" could be consequential. Correct Jean-Luc. Love your wine. Sorry Shaw didn't take to it. Happy to hear about your son Jack. I am worried about outages too and wary of too much cement snow 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, romba said: Do I say city and immediate area? Not sure what language to use so everyone doesn’t get needlessly pissed off, thanks. Metro and south. North of 78 and LI I think could still be in the game 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 The CMC follows the RGEM and moves the low West 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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