LibertyBell Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: Yes it would it would snow down to Atlantic City. it can be snowing there while still raining here lol. back end snow is still better than no snow at all or snow changing to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wilsonvoid1 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 it can be snowing there while still raining here lol. back end snow is still better than no snow at all or snow changing to rain personally with Euros track and intensity a lot of that will be snow even in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Big difference between late February and mid March. But yes Boston can get 1-3 while NYC gets 4-6 We don’t have an established cold air source which is always a problem but as the calendar gets later becomes more of a problem. Sat AM’s event will likely fail for us for that reason and this next one may too if it doesn’t bomb out and bring cold air in somehow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 hour ago, Winterweatherlover said: A track like that at that strength should produce for everyone in mid March, just not enough cold air I guess. Still could see it trending a little colder if it's really as strong as the Euro. there's not enough cold air because it is mid March....but enough for 4 - 6 inches here and back end snow which is a lot better than front end snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: What if Saturday AND next week both look like that? cant happen, you can only have one or the other not both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: We don’t have an established cold air source which is always a problem but as the calendar gets later becomes more of a problem. Sat AM’s event will likely fail for us for that reason and this next one may too if it doesn’t bomb out and bring cold air in somehow. Yes, we've played this game before lol Would be way different a month or more ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: We don’t have an established cold air source which is always a problem but as the calendar gets later becomes more of a problem. Sat AM’s event will likely fail for us for that reason and this next one may too if it doesn’t bomb out and bring cold air in somehow. Does this remind you of March 2001 in some ways? I was curious how the models would handle that storm if it were to happen now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 13 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: Yea it's rare but it can happen. I'll never forget that Feb '10 storm (I think?) where NYC was being dumped on and Boston was raining in the 50s. That track was so insane that the rain/snow line was north/south oriented so even places north but just east of NYC saw mixing or even rain (I was living in Armonk which is northeast of NYC and I remember that for a time it was mixing while NYC was snowing). 2/25/10 was the “snowicane” widespread 30-40” up here. What many forget was that there was a 6-10” event a few days prior. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Does this remind you of March 2001 in some ways? I was curious how the models would handle that storm if it were to happen now. Mar 2001 just developed too late for most of us. It did just fine east of the William Floyd and would’ve up to NYC had it bombed just 75 miles further SW. That’s why miller B events are always nail biters for us. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 24 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: This is a rare case where NYC can do better than SNE if the storm takes the right track...it would be fitting in this winter to see something odd like that happen I like how the ensembles hook the low before heading North. Once the storm passes our longitude we can change to snow quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Just now, jm1220 said: Mar 2001 just developed too late for most of us. It did just fine east of the William Floyd and would’ve up to NYC had it bombed just 75 miles further SW. That’s why miller B events are always nail biters for us. You know that's why I don't like them lol A foot of snow in Patchogue and 4-5 inches for us. I guess April 1996 was like that too? We got 4-5 inches here and NYC got less than an inch. The Hamptons got a foot of snow and blizzard conditions all night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Mar 2001 just developed too late for most of us. It did just fine east of the William Floyd and would’ve up to NYC had it bombed just 75 miles further SW. That’s why miller B events are always nail biters for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 4 minutes ago, snywx said: 2/25/10 was the “snowicane” widespread 30-40” up here. What many forget was that there was a 6-10” event a few days prior. The snowfall map for that storm is like a new englander's worst nightmare lol, the snow literally stopped at the border. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Just now, EastonSN+ said: yep 4-6 inches here aka 5 inches lol NYC schools closed for 2 days lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: We don’t have an established cold air source which is always a problem but as the calendar gets later becomes more of a problem. Sat AM’s event will likely fail for us for that reason and this next one may too if it doesn’t bomb out and bring cold air in somehow. This one won't really have an issue at all if it tracks where the Euro/ICON for example have it going...we have a decent cold source to pull down. I think this system is gonna bomb, its just a question if it just goes way too far west but I do not expect lack of dynamics to be a likely issue with this one 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Lee Goldberg just said "This is winter's last chance to do something. After this big storm, the weather looks benign and will warm up." 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 9, 2023 Author Share Posted March 9, 2023 The 18z GFS now has the system suppressed way out to sea. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The 18z GFS now has the system suppressed way out to sea. LOL is my only reaction (sorry if inappropriate) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 14 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The 18z GFS now has the system suppressed way out to sea. It's coming around 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 8 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: LOL is my only reaction (sorry if inappropriate) I mean 1) 18z run 2) it's probably a good thing with the mixing concerns you want a few suppressed runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 GFS made a big step towards the EURO and UKMET.. To Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: GFS made a big step towards the EURO and UKMET.. To Ok thats not way out to sea. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Soooo close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Soooo close. Needs to bomb out sooner but also not hug the coast too much but the CMC/Euro trending east and GFS trending west is a good sign, maybe moving toward a middle ground consensus? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Soooo close. Capture that thing 6 hrs. Sooner and we got something. I think its that close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: Needs to bomb out sooner but also not hug the coast too much but the CMC/Euro trending east and GFS trending west is a good sign, maybe moving toward a middle ground consensus? Yeah that's my hope a GFS EURO blend is our bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: Needs to bomb out sooner but also not hug the coast too much but the CMC/Euro trending east and GFS trending west is a good sign, maybe moving toward a middle ground consensus? Hopefully, but I feel like this is the norm in late season Miller B's Remember the Fools Day noreaster lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Yeah that's my hope a GFS EURO blend is our bullseye. I think it could work out for you where you get a foot of snow and down here and new york city it's like 1-2 inches lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I think it could work out for you where you get a foot of snow and down here and new york city it's like 1-2 inches lol If it's too far east CT would do better than NYC, if it's too far west CT wouldn't do better than NYC. Although you could make a case everyone could do better than NYC due to the UHI effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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