MJO812 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 10 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: I agree unfortunately. If we are relying on an inverted trough it’s probably going to bust. We are not Stop listening to him 1 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 The Euro is going to be dead wrong IMO. That inverted trough feature is BSYou seem pretty militant about it. Maybe it’s time for a drink.. 4 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 I’d hate to be NWS right now. Euro and Uk show a foot or more for Rockland county and their snow map has 2.8” for new city with no watch up. They seem to be leaning toward the warmer solution and climo - understandably so, but damn! Tough spot to be in if the euro and Ukmet are indeed correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, jayyy said: I’d hate to be NWS right now. Euro and Uk show a foot or more for Rockland county and their snow map has 2.8” for new city with no watch up. They seem to be leaning toward the warmer solution and climo - understandably so, but damn! Tough spot to be in if the euro and Ukmet are indeed correct. Most models are basically showing around 2” of QPF just to the north of NYC now it’s just what p-type falls and where. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 20 minutes ago, Jaguars said: You seem pretty militant about it. Maybe it’s time for a drink. . Snow hurt him when he was younger. 1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Those Storm Vista 10:1 ratio snow maps are so severely overdone it’s not even funny. They are extremely and I mean extremely inaccurate. The Kuchera snow map on piviotal weather doesn’t look anything close to that, like not even in the ballpark. Ratios are going to be like 5:1This is where I do my scientific analysis and increase the basis that you mention and concurrently decrease what Anthony mentions to get my forecast.. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Euro is going all in with the IVT. The other models are more focused on the synoptic scale snows which would favor NE.What does IVT mean? Is it the next phase of Covid?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wilsonvoid1 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Snow hurt him when he was younger. lol, do you guys know which models are best statistically?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Sref also got snowier Nam rolling 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 So NAM/Euro/Ukie/HRRR/CMC vs GFS. I’m liking our chances.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, wilsonvoid1 said: lol, do you guys know which models are best statistically? . I think the Euro is considered the #1. Would that be correct? That said, the Euro (as per what Don explained/posted a few posts back)...I suppose isn't spitting out as much snow as we think it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 7 minutes ago, North and West said: What does IVT mean? Is it the next phase of Covid? . Inverted trough 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 The rap would work for most of us 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 31 minutes ago, Jaguars said: You seem pretty militant about it. Maybe it’s time for a drink. . He's militantly anti snow a lot here for some reason. It's quite predictable. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 3 hours ago, weathermedic said: OKX sticking with a mostly rain scenario at the coast. From this morning’s AFD: By Monday night, the upper level low forces the coastal low to rapidly deepen as it passes near the 40N 70 W benchmark. Some model guidance actually has a separate area of low pressure develop over the area in the apex of the inverted trough. This will result in widespread moderate to locally heavy precipitation Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Rain along the coast may be heavy at times through the night. This is likely when a bulk of the precipitation from the event falls with coastal areas possibly seeing as much as 1.5 inches of rainfall from sunset Monday to sunrise Tuesday. There remains a considerable amount of uncertainty as to how the transition to snowfall occurs of the northwestern fringe of the cyclone. The thinking is that mainly rain Monday evening transitions to a rain/snow mix and then primarily snow for the Lower Hudson Valley and portions of interior NE NJ and W Connecticut. As strengthening NW winds advect marginally cool air from the north, the rain/snow transition may make some southward progress toward daybreak Tuesday. There remains a possibility that precipitation for much of the area will be a mix of rain and snow by Tuesday morning and through much of the day on Tuesday with temperatures expected to be in the middle 30s for the coastal areas. As precipitation lightens Tuesday afternoon and evening, the upper level trough passes over the area allowing for a more favorable profile for plain snow for much of the area. Any accumulations at this point should be minimal. I'd be fairly scared if I was them about going big at all with snow right now near the coast but I'd probably at least cover with 1-2 inches possibly for now 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Inverted trough . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Wondering if this a case where we see a 1-3" of snow followed by 1-3" of sleet , maybe more? I could see this being a major sleet storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 He's militantly anti snow a lot here for some reason. It's quite predictable. Right. That was my hunch, seems a bit miserable and eager to spread it.. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, Jaguars said: Right. That was my hunch, seems a bit miserable and eager to spread it. . Snowman is knowledgeable (more than most including myself) but almost always harps on the least snowy solution. It's served him well in this garbage of a winter but I recall several instances over the years where he was proven wrong. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 24 minutes ago, binbisso said: The rap would work for most of us Cut those numbers in half, as our ratios will be about 5:1, especially close to the coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 30 minutes ago, wilsonvoid1 said: lol, do you guys know which models are best statistically? . Depends on a lot of things. There are verification scores available but usually the Euro is a strong model. I’m North of 84 so I do think this has a good shot for me. The past two weeks have also felt the most wintry of the whole winter. Very odd. January was just awful though for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Snowman is knowledgeable (more than most including myself) but almost always harps on the least snowy solution. It's served him well in this garbage of a winter but I recall several instances over the years where he was proven wrong. It’s like the Wall St permabear always calling for the imminent crash. Yes they’ll eventually be right, but what’s the opportunity cost in between? I guess it’s fun carrying an umbrella when it’s sunny just to “be right” a week later. . 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 7 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: Snowman is knowledgeable (more than most including myself) but almost always harps on the least snowy solution. It's served him well in this garbage of a winter but I recall several instances over the years where he was proven wrong. He is definitely more knowledgeable than me so I give him a nod there. But my God, the constant, incessant anti snow, least snowy solution is so agenda driven. Rain, sun and mild are all bowing to his alter. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, White Gorilla said: He is definitely more knowledgeable than me so I give him a nod there. But my God, the constant, incessant anti snow, least snowy solution is so agenda driven. Rain, sun and mild are all bowing to his alter. I bet he always thinks the stock markets going to go down too I know these pessimistic types 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 13 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: Snowman is knowledgeable (more than most including myself) but almost always harps on the least snowy solution. It's served him well in this garbage of a winter but I recall several instances over the years where he was proven wrong. The anti-JB 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 9 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: Depends on a lot of things. There are verification scores available but usually the Euro is a strong model. I’m North of 84 so I do think this has a good shot for me. The past two weeks have also felt the most wintry of the whole winter. Very odd. January was just awful though for winter. This is such a wildly convoluted set up I probably wouldn’t trust anything at the moment. Chances are you can throw out the NAM GFS and probably just mix the euro and the Canadian but as we saw on the 6z RGEM it barely even has any snow in Boston. the problem is the RGM is a fairly lousy model past 48 too with a set up such as this. It can do well with simple systems beyond 48 but when it comes to convoluted phases and coastal systems with phasing and captures it can be pretty terrible past 48. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 HRRR looks pretty good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 hours ago, ILoveWinter said: Snowman is knowledgeable (more than most including myself) but almost always harps on the least snowy solution. It's served him well in this garbage of a winter but I recall several instances over the years where he was proven wrong. Good morning ILW. I fully agree, personally, with your first sentence. However, if and when S19 evaluates a potential system and “woofs” ….. I’ll be speed walking to Trader Joe’s. …. That’s if I’ve made it to the head in time. Stay well, dry, wet, or white/frozen. As always … 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: HRRR looks pretty good How good? and how is the 12z NAM looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 41 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said: Wondering if this a case where we see a 1-3" of snow followed by 1-3" of sleet , maybe more? I could see this being a major sleet storm snow will occur at the end not the beginning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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