WestBabylonWeather Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Is it me or is the nam phasing earlier an more west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Looks east to me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Weast 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 It's helpful to note "through hour x..." when trying to pinpoint changes so everyone is on the same page. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Def looks slightly east through 48 unless we get a double low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 I see dual lows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 At 51 there does appear to maybe be a double low near the NJ coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 The NAM is warm as the west low is hugging the coast. I don’t mind the nam being over amped since we need a west trend and are mostly depending on wrap around precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 NAM looks like . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 7 minutes ago, Jaguars said: NAM looks like . Expect rain and be happy if it turns into something more. The inverted trough is ruining it (which causes that low reflection near NJ) like the other runs/models. That needs to go away for the NYC area to see anything other than a washout. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just sucks we don't have a colder air mass in place. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Huge difference for NYC Metro/NENJ/LI at 60 hrs on the NAM3K vs. the NAM12K with respect to snowfall... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 The snow does come on the backend but not much on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Just sucks we don't have a colder air mass in place. Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 3k and 12k NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 5 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: 3k and 12k NAM . What accounts for the differences between the two in terms of snowfall amount distribution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 8 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: The snow does come on the backend but not much on this run. If we get wraparound mood snow for a while it likely wouldn't accumulate if it's battling 34-35 degree temps and March sun. We would optimally want it to happen at night, and the low to bomb earlier and form a CCB over us so we get the benefit of heavy rates and cold air from the crashing heights. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Don on average when is our last accumulation of the season? I feel like over 50% of the time it is on or before the 24th? Average last date: March 14th. 59% of the time it is on or before March 24th. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 RGEM looks a little better to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: If we get wraparound mood snow for a while it likely wouldn't accumulate if it's battling 34-35 degree temps and March sun. We would optimally want it to happen at night, and the low to bomb earlier and form a CCB over us so we get the benefit of heavy rates and cold air from the crashing heights. Yea honestly none of that is happening imo barring huge changes. The best we can hope for is back end snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 What accounts for the differences between the two in terms of snowfall amount distribution? Kuchera relays the actual ratios that may fall, in this case probably 6:1-8:1 as it’s a wet heavy snow. 10:1 maps will be over inflated . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 22 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Expect rain and be happy if it turns into something more. The inverted trough is ruining it (which causes that low reflection near NJ) like the other runs/models. That needs to go away for the NYC area to see anything other than a washout. Ah so that snow on Tuesday showing up is from a norlun feature and not the actual storm? Then it’s most likely not going to happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: Kuchera relays the actual ratios that may fall, in this case probably 6:1-8:1 as it’s a wet heavy snow. 10:1 maps will be over inflated . It depends on where you are and the dynamics at play. NWS Albany talking 8-10:1 in their zone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Ok now that I understand what is happening I can pretty confidently say 0 inches of accumulation for NYC, maybe white rain on Tuesday. Anything more would be shocking surprise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 34 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Just sucks we don't have a colder air mass in place. Yes there’s enough liquid that if we actually had a cold air this would be a decent storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Ok now that I understand what is happening I can pretty confidently say 0 inches of accumulation for NYC, maybe white rain on Tuesday. Anything more would be shocking surprise. Debbie downer Just kidding you're likely right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 12 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: Kuchera relays the actual ratios that may fall, in this case probably 6:1-8:1 as it’s a wet heavy snow. 10:1 maps will be over inflated . Kuchera is an awful algorithm, though and often quite wrong, especially in moderate to heavy snowfall rate scenarios, where the ratios are largely set by the crystal formation in the DGZ, which can be fantastic regardless of the warmest temp in the column, which is the only variable Kuchera looks at - and assumes ratios get lower when that temp is above 32F, regardless of where in the column. So one could have fantastic growth rates/high ratio snow falling and Kuchera might still calculate a low ratio if the surface is at 34F, which is nonsense, since the surface goes from 34F to 32F once rates exceed melting and a frozen layer is established on the ground. Wrote a far longer post on Kuchera's suckage a couple of years ago - might try to dig it up. Having said all that, with modest to low rates and surface temps above 32F, Kuchera is better than 10:1 for guesstimating accumulation, but I also like the 10:1 maps, since they indirectly also always provide the QPF, whereas Kuchera doesn't. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Debbie downer Just kidding you're likely right Hey I’m fairly optimistic for the I84 crew. At least someone in the subforum will get a nice storm finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: Hey I’m fairly optimistic for the I84 crew. At least someone in the subforum will get a nice storm finally. How can u be so confident? The euro just showed 8" in the city.. these models are all over the place. Complex system. I don't think they'll have it figured out till tommor night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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